Question:
5-2?
Option 1: bar/23 13/8
votes: 1
Option 2: bar/23 11/6
votes: 0
Option 3: bar/23 8/3*
votes: 1
Option 4: bar/20 13/11
votes: 7
Option 5: bar/20 11/9
votes: 0
Option 6: bar/20 8/6
votes: 0
Option 7: bar/20 6/4
votes: 0
Option 8: bar/23 6/1*
votes: 0
Option 9: bar/20 24/22
votes: 0
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-7/game-4-move-3-the-herd-to-play-5-2/?action=dlattach;attach=5299;image)
We have a 5-2 to play from the bar
Position ID: 4NuFASTgc+QBUA
Match ID: 8ImqAAAAIAAA
Spoiler
I don't think entering on the 20 is a good idea. He'll have four(!) builders aimed at it, and won't hesitate to hit loose. 16 rolls point on our head with this play. The only way I could see entering on the 20 is if we had a tempo hit to be made somewhere else to take away half his roll. I was all set to argue for bar/20 6/1*, but that's two fives, not 2-5, and hence illegal if an understandable mistake.
We need to hang back here, try to make an anchor and build a prime. Enter on the 23, and then either hit loose or bring one down from the midpoint (11/6 is just fugly). Of the hitting plays, I like 6/1* better as it unstacks the 6 and leaves the fewest shots - 8/3* strips the eight point without making a homeboard point, so that just seems a waste of a spare.
I'm going to go with yd. prosaic 13/8, but if either of the hitting plays starts attracting votes I'll probably shift over to that. I really don't like entering on the 20.
Spoiler
I don't think we have much of a future entering on the 2 point and further stacking. It's true he has a lot of pointing numbers if we enter on his 5 point, but those same numbers further trap us if we enter on his 2. If he hits us lose on the 5 point we have plenty of return shots and not much to fear from his 1 point board.
If we were to enter on his 2 point I think I'd hit him on our 3 point rather than stack, but I don't see much value there either.
The good news is, cuz of the score, that we can't get hurt much here. Mark me down for BAR - 20, 13-11.
Bob
Quote from: ah_clem on November 17, 2010, 07:55:24 PMWell, I'm glad somebody's paying attention.
Somebody is pleased to to be noticed and appreciated ;)
Looks like there's consensus, so lets move along.
Rollout
Spoiler
The Herd's move comes out on top. Others are not too far behind.
1. Rollout bar/20 13/11 Eq.: -0.182
0.421 0.152 0.021 - 0.579 0.220 0.009 CL -0.182 CF -0.182
[0.002 0.005 0.003 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
2. Rollout bar/23 8/3* Eq.: -0.203 ( -0.020)
0.414 0.146 0.025 - 0.586 0.247 0.014 CL -0.203 CF -0.203
[0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
3. Rollout bar/23 6/1* Eq.: -0.218 ( -0.035)
0.406 0.147 0.016 - 0.594 0.228 0.013 CL -0.218 CF -0.218
[0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
4. Rollout bar/20 24/22 Eq.: -0.218 ( -0.035)
0.404 0.137 0.018 - 0.596 0.236 0.010 CL -0.218 CF -0.218
[0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
5. Rollout bar/23 13/8 Eq.: -0.238 ( -0.055)
0.395 0.138 0.017 - 0.605 0.234 0.012 CL -0.238 CF -0.238
[0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 905458359 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]