Poll
Ask and ye shall receive.
8/3* added.
Question: 5-1? bar/24 is forced. Where to play the five?
Option 1: 23/18
votes: 1
Option 2: 13/8
votes: 5
Option 3: 11/6
votes: 0
Option 4: 6/1*
votes: 1
Option 5: 8/3*
votes: 1
Title: Game 4 move 5 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 19, 2010, 05:57:37 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 19, 2010, 05:57:37 PM
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-7/game-4-move-5-the-herd-to-play-5-1/?action=dlattach;attach=5307;image)
Z rolled a 5-3 and pointed on our head (nexted by me) We have a 5-1 to play from the bar.
Z rolled a 5-3 and pointed on our head (nexted by me) We have a 5-1 to play from the bar.
Title: Re: Game 4 move 5 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 19, 2010, 06:12:25 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 19, 2010, 06:12:25 PM
Spoiler
I'm going to go with the "safe" 13/8. We may have a breather here and be able to make an anchor, so I'm not in a hurry to give him another blot to aim at - not necessarily because of the loss of ground in the race as because of the loss of a tempo when we're hit - I'd much rather use a one to anhchor than have to waste it on entering. Although I won't be surprised if running to the 18 or hitting loose is the choice of gnubg.
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Title: Re: Game 4 move 5 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: NIHILIST on November 20, 2010, 01:07:10 AM
Post by: NIHILIST on November 20, 2010, 01:07:10 AM
Spoiler
I don't see it in your list, but I favor hitting him, 8-3. He's had this game his own way, let's give him a mild b#t#h-slap.
Bob
Bob
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Title: Re: Game 4 move 5 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 20, 2010, 01:57:43 AM
Post by: ah_clem on November 20, 2010, 01:57:43 AM
Spoiler
Quote from: NIHILIST on November 20, 2010, 01:07:10 AM
I don't see it in your list, but I favor hitting him, 8-3. He's had this game his own way, let's give him a mild b#t#h-slap.
Ask and ye shall receive.
8/3* added.
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Title: Re: Game 4 move 5 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 20, 2010, 05:17:52 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 20, 2010, 05:17:52 PM
rollout
Running to the bar point is gnu's choice. The Herd's choice is tied for second and a .04 error. Others are fairly close too. A tough decision.
1. Rollout bar/24 23/18 Eq.: -0.359
0.338 0.101 0.012 - 0.662 0.357 0.010 CL -0.359 CF -0.359
[0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
2. Rollout bar/24 8/3* Eq.: -0.398 ( -0.040)
0.328 0.089 0.015 - 0.672 0.397 0.025 CL -0.398 CF -0.398
[0.003 0.004 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
3. Rollout bar/24 13/8 Eq.: -0.398 ( -0.040)
0.319 0.089 0.010 - 0.681 0.352 0.012 CL -0.398 CF -0.398
[0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
4. Rollout bar/24 6/1* Eq.: -0.408 ( -0.049)
0.319 0.089 0.008 - 0.681 0.364 0.020 CL -0.408 CF -0.408
[0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
5. Rollout bar/24 11/6 Eq.: -0.477 ( -0.119)
0.286 0.079 0.010 - 0.714 0.393 0.021 CL -0.477 CF -0.477
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
Running to the bar point is gnu's choice. The Herd's choice is tied for second and a .04 error. Others are fairly close too. A tough decision.
1. Rollout bar/24 23/18 Eq.: -0.359
0.338 0.101 0.012 - 0.662 0.357 0.010 CL -0.359 CF -0.359
[0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
2. Rollout bar/24 8/3* Eq.: -0.398 ( -0.040)
0.328 0.089 0.015 - 0.672 0.397 0.025 CL -0.398 CF -0.398
[0.003 0.004 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
3. Rollout bar/24 13/8 Eq.: -0.398 ( -0.040)
0.319 0.089 0.010 - 0.681 0.352 0.012 CL -0.398 CF -0.398
[0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
4. Rollout bar/24 6/1* Eq.: -0.408 ( -0.049)
0.319 0.089 0.008 - 0.681 0.364 0.020 CL -0.408 CF -0.408
[0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
5. Rollout bar/24 11/6 Eq.: -0.477 ( -0.119)
0.286 0.079 0.010 - 0.714 0.393 0.021 CL -0.477 CF -0.477
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]