Poll
Just back form Montana and catching up...
He's ahead by 23 pips & on roll, has a better position with his broken 4-prime and the fact that he's escaped his runners while we still have two back, and he's threatening to hit one of our blots. Position, race, and threats: 3 for 3 is a pass. I don't think it's too good here, but it might be. I'll start a rollout.
BTW, I think gaspar missed a cube last turn - I wasn't sure whether it was take or pass, so Kit's Law says it must be a double. I'll roll that one out too.
Question: take? 
Option 1: Take
votes: 2
Option 2: Pass
votes: 6
Title: Game 1, move 6: herd cube decision
Post by: diane on March 06, 2011, 07:20:43 PM
Post by: diane on March 06, 2011, 07:20:43 PM
Gaspar messaged me to say he will cube, so Herd has a decsion to make. He is out of contact for a while, so take your time ;)
Position ID: 2J3gASSYt4kHAA
Match ID: MBmgAAAAAAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-9/game-1-move-6-herd-cube-decision-3901/?action=dlattach;attach=5827;image)
Position ID: 2J3gASSYt4kHAA
Match ID: MBmgAAAAAAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-9/game-1-move-6-herd-cube-decision-3901/?action=dlattach;attach=5827;image)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 6: herd cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on March 08, 2011, 08:59:56 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 08, 2011, 08:59:56 PM
Just back form Montana and catching up...
He's ahead by 23 pips & on roll, has a better position with his broken 4-prime and the fact that he's escaped his runners while we still have two back, and he's threatening to hit one of our blots. Position, race, and threats: 3 for 3 is a pass. I don't think it's too good here, but it might be. I'll start a rollout.
BTW, I think gaspar missed a cube last turn - I wasn't sure whether it was take or pass, so Kit's Law says it must be a double. I'll roll that one out too.
Title: Re: Game 1, move 6: herd cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on March 08, 2011, 09:35:33 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 08, 2011, 09:35:33 PM
rollout
According to gun 0-ply, it's a massive pass, but only a marginal double - it's almost too good.
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.756 0.162 0.005 - 0.244 0.039 0.001 CL +0.645 CF +0.981
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.008]
Player The Herd owns 2-cube:
0.767 0.162 0.004 - 0.233 0.035 0.002 CL +1.414 CF +1.245
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.009 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 878686117 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.245 ( +0.245)
3. No double +0.981 ( -0.019)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Spoiler
According to gun 0-ply, it's a massive pass, but only a marginal double - it's almost too good.
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.756 0.162 0.005 - 0.244 0.039 0.001 CL +0.645 CF +0.981
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.008]
Player The Herd owns 2-cube:
0.767 0.162 0.004 - 0.233 0.035 0.002 CL +1.414 CF +1.245
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.009 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 878686117 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.245 ( +0.245)
3. No double +0.981 ( -0.019)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
[close]