match 1, game 1, move 4

[factotum]

No double after the forum plays the 5-2.

[blitzxz]

4-1?

[factotum]

4-1?

The bar pt would be nice to have, but 11-7, 8-7 would leave my 8pt stripped and my two back checkers still vulnerable.  15-11, 23-22 leaves only 1 blot and gives me a more flexible front position.

My move is 15-11, 23-22.

[dorbel]

Factotum's play is imaginative and flexible, but making the bar is just a little better. It's a point that he wants and as a general rule, making a good point is worth a touch of poor distribution. We do it on the opening roll with a 6-1 after all. This also comes up quite a lot, where we have a choice between safetying a blot in the opponent's outfield or making a good point (bar, 5pt etc). It is almost always worth leaving the shot to make the point. After all, the checkers on the 11pt are there to threaten to make points and making them is better than threatening!

[NIHILIST]

Opponent having 3 checkers back screams for making the bar point.

Bob

[playBunny]

Bar point for me too. factotum's got two points in his home but one of those is up against the wall and the supply of builders isn't daunting. The 3 needed to hit factotum on the 10-point is the 3 that wants to make the 5-point so there's that trade-off.

[Zorba]

Yep... rollout would have to determine the size of the error, even and odd ply disagree.

Interesting to note is, that the extra gammon wins that 11/7 8/7 creates are an important factor in making it the best play. Blocking those three backcheckers and creating attackers at the same time helps.

    1. Cubeful 2-ply    11/7 8/7                     Eq.:  +0,3484
        59,89  17,36   1,01 -  40,11  13,71   0,28
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    23/22 15/11                  Eq.:  +0,3010 ( -0,0474)
        59,19  14,64   0,81 -  40,81  12,92   0,21
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

    1. Cubeful 3-ply    11/7 8/7                     Eq.:  +0,3039
        58,63  16,11   0,71 -  41,37  13,92   0,27
        3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
    2. Cubeful 3-ply    23/22 15/11                  Eq.:  +0,2296 ( -0,0743)
        57,23  13,55   0,55 -  42,77  13,37   0,22
        3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

    1. Cubeful 4-ply    11/7 8/7                     Eq.:  +0,3629
        60,01  17,05   0,93 -  39,99  13,74   0,28
        4-ply cubeful prune
    2. Cubeful 4-ply    23/22 15/11                  Eq.:  +0,3162 ( -0,0467)
        59,39  14,44   0,76 -  40,61  12,90   0,22
        4-ply cubeful prune