Game 2, move 5: Herd 5-2

[diane]

For those who dont yet know..I am flying out to Kangaroo Island this weekend - so you get time to think on this one..and yes..the correct terminology is..I'M flying..and also quite excited  

Position ID: hs/BAyBmO2CAMQ
Match ID: cAmgABAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If we whack him, he dances 50% of the time.  That's good enough for me, even though we don't have any builders in range.  I'd like to bring some builders into range, but I also don't want to abandon the midpoint, so I'll opt for 24/22 to play the deuce.

Gaspar has no structure to speak of - his only assets are a 20 pip racing lead and the weak 2 point.  If he dances, we'll make up part of the pip deficit, and if he enters he'll have to leave a blot somewhere and then we'll have the chance to whack it.  We'd like nothing more than to get into a hitting contest with our four point board vs his 2 point board.   

[close]

[gaspar]

ooh that is exiting,  what kind of plane....on of those straight winged single engine jobs...or a gulfstream executive jet.

my friend's a pilot and he has the former type of plane.  idea was for us to fly to ABT (american bg tour), but he cant fly in bad weather, so all tourneys in winter are out , and las vegas is too far...

have fun!

[stog]

Spoiler

you wouldn't think a plane was needed to go to kangaroo island, it being only a hop away..

[close]

[diane]

ooh that is exiting,  what kind of plane....on of those straight winged single engine jobs...or a gulfstream executive jet.

This one 

That is a shame - not being able to go anywhere in winter!!  But really - having had to outrun a thunderstorm today, stay away from the bad weather!!

[ah_clem]

Oh.  You're flying in a plane.  I figured you were taking your broom.  (c:

Anyway, here's the rollout:

Spoiler

Hitting is correct by a good margin, but gnu rates the two reasonable hitting plays too close to call.  In retrospect, playing off the midpoint brings a checker closer to covering the ace point and it leaves the backgame structure in place.



   1. Rollout          13/11 6/1*                   Eq.:  +0.035
       0.503 0.191 0.004 - 0.497 0.159 0.023 CL  +0.060 CF  +0.035
      [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 883923352 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    2. Rollout          24/22 6/1*                   Eq.:  +0.033 ( -0.001)
       0.505 0.190 0.003 - 0.495 0.146 0.016 CL  +0.070 CF  +0.033
      [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 883923352 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]