Game 2, move 6: Herd 3-2

[diane]

Position ID: hs+DAwjNNmCAJQ
Match ID: cAmtABAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I've been dinged a lot by gnubg over the years for holding the six point when I can whack the opponent, so I'm going to go with 6/3*/1.  

This rocks gaspar back on his heels, putting him on the bar against a 4 point board.  50% of the time he dances, and when he doesn't he usually leaves another shot for us.  Granted, there are no builders in sight, but gaspar also doesn't have a board to speak of.  Keep hitting him, don't let him escape.  We're behind in the race and behind in the match - now is not for to be the time of the playing passively.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

This is an interesting one, if for no other reason than we don't really know what kind of game we're playing.

We have the better board, but are not really in a position to attack due to the 4 checkers in his board. We could play 6-3-1 and put him on the bar, but then what ? Do we really want to have our 1 point made if we have to play a backgame ?

There's actually an interesting variation of that play that doesn't put him on the bar, but, imo, has some merit to it: 4-1, 24-22.  This makes a second point in his board, keeps our 6 point, and doesn't make his hit of the resultant blot so devastating compared to having only 1 point in his board.

At the end of the day, however, I can't quite persuade myself to make either play. I think I just play quietly, 24-22, 13-10. We maintain our position, grab a second point in his board, and leave a blot, which we'd do anyway. We probably don't mind being hit in this position as much as the other 2 plays, and could actually benefit from a timing standpoint.

BTW, I also rejected 24-22, 21-18 which trades down from holding his 4 point to holding his 3 point and really opens us up to be pounded.

24 - 22, 13 - 10 for me.

Bob

[close]

[moonshadow]

Spoiler

I too was torn between 6/3*1 and 24-22, 13-10, but ended up going with the latter.

What finally decided it for me was that if I play 6/3*1 and Gasper fans, I have no direct shots to cover on the 6 and very few indirect shots, whereas in a back game in the current position, Gasper is almost certain to leave some future shots for the hit and probable win.

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

i like 24/21, 22/20 it gives us a spare on the anchor, and more range for a hit from his 5 point; it also allows us to keep our midpoint and perhaps better flexibility for any future larger rolls.

[close]

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

I've plumped for 6/3*/1. It puts him on the bar against a 4 point board and we'll have what looks like a well-timed back game, with hopefully, plenty of chances to wack him again. Tora! Tora! Tora!

[close]

[NIHILIST]

As I've said before, even the bravest kamikaze pilots wound up dead.

Bob

PS 24-21, 22-20 was my second choice

[diane]

PS 24-21, 22-20 was my second choice

I will use that information to break the tie.

[paup99]

This site is cool.





edit by stog ---->y thank you pau

[ah_clem]

expurgated rollout

Spoiler

Since the cube is still in play I'm only going to give relative rollouts, but gnu likes 6/3*/1 by a fair margin.  All other plays are whoppers.



    1. Rollout          6/3*/1                       Eq.:  xxx
     
    2. Rollout          24/22 13/10                  Eq.:   ( -0.123)
   
    3. Rollout          24/22 4/1                    Eq.:  ( -0.138)
       
    4. Rollout          24/22 21/18                  Eq.:  ( -0.186)
     
    5. Rollout          24/21 22/20                  Eq.:   ( -0.189)
     
    6. Rollout          13/11 13/10                  Eq.:   ( -0.257)
     
    7. Rollout          22/20 13/10                  Eq.:   ( -0.322)

        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 883923352 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[socksey]

Thx, ah_chem!  I won't get mad now because my choice was 2nd in line.   

socksey