Game 6, move 6 : Forum 2-1

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 2-1, hopefully this will be quite interesting - even though it is seemingly very simple.

bBu3AATQ58EBMA:8AmlACAAIAAA

[diane]

Spoiler

When I saw the roll, I wanted to play 6/5, 6/4*, and I voted for that.  Then out of the corner of my eye, I got a quick look at rkbs homeboard and wimped right out...6/4*, 5/4 for me in the end - but I am not sure it is the right thing 

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[diane]

It is looking pretty much unanimous, I might move it along this evening - I wonder if Adrian had time to vote yet? 

[adrian]

  Yes , I did had the time and I voted too. As stiefnu said in an earlier post about OLMatches, he also found the poll locked even tho it was supposed to be open! Maybe stog will looup this problem of locked topics. I think it was a forum software issue (but I am no connoisseur, so don't take it for granted).

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Hitting is mandatory.  The question is whether to point on his head or make the 5 point and hit loose on the four.  

We're very likely to be looking at an ace point game, so timing is an important consideration here.  The  problem is, I don't know how to apply timing here.  We'd like more timing (ie further behind in the race so our board doesn't crunch), but facing a four point board means it's likely that we'll wind up with too much timing if we get hit.

So, since timing considerations doesn't really help me make the decision, I'll observe that we're behind, gammons don't count, so take a bigger risk. Make the 5 and slot the four. 6/5, 6/4*.

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[ah_clem]

It is looking pretty much unanimous, I might move it along this evening ...

As I'm massively outvoted, I'd concur that moving it along is the way to go.

However,  I would like to ask someone who voted for the winning move to provide some reasoning behind it - it may be obvious to everyone else, but it's not obvious to me.

[diane]

However,  I would like to ask someone who voted for the winning move to provide some reasoning behind it - it may be obvious to everyone else, but it's not obvious to me.

I gave my reasons....not as comprehensive as you would like I am sure - but that is one scary board 

It will have to wait until morning to be moved on though now, so maybe more reasons will come 

[diane]

As I'm massively outvoted, I'd concur that moving it along is the way to go.

Now that we have moved on, I am sure you are right - a rollout will tell us..but knowing what we know now, I am so glad we didnt make the better move     

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The riskier play is the way to go here. Playing it safe  is a .057 error.

Of course, the rollout tells us nothing about the timing considerations...





    1. Rollout          6/5 6/4*                     Eq.:  -0.428
       0.308 0.055 0.005 - 0.692 0.333 0.011 CL  -0.428 CF  -0.428
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          6/4* 5/4                     Eq.:  -0.485 ( -0.057)
       0.277 0.064 0.006 - 0.723 0.262 0.011 CL  -0.485 CF  -0.485
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
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