Game 6, move 7 : Forum 4-3

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 4-3.

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Have fun folks - and here is hoping Adrian and Steifnu get a chance to vote this time 

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Hit loose on the 1.  There's less than a 1 in 3 chance he'll hit us, and it gives us another shot at one of his outfield blots.   8/1*

If we don't hit him now, he has two numbers to fill in his prime.  If we hit, he's only got one number to make another point.

Playing quietly and waiting to lose is not the way to go here.  We're way behind and gammons don't count - we need to play aggressively and keep him off balance.  Keep hitting until he dances or he hits us back.

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[stog]

Spoiler

mm i like it -- am almost persuaded to switch my vote right now - but i shall read any other views first
thx ah clem

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[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

If we don't hit him now, he has two numbers to fill in his prime.  If we hit, he's only got one number to make another point.

Playing quietly and waiting to lose is not the way to go here.  We're way behind and gammons don't count - we need to play aggressively and keep him off balance.  Keep hitting until he dances or he hits us back.

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I have at least 3 x 2 numbers to make my prime plus 11 and 22 so that's 8 numbers.

[ah_clem]

I have at least 3 x 2 numbers to make my prime plus 11 and 22 so that's 8 numbers.

Spoiler

4-3 4-2 4-1 3-2 3-1 2-1 1-1 2-2

That's 14 rolls that make the bar point.

And the rolls that don't are great running rolls (except for 55 and 33).

OTOH if we hit, only 1-1 and 2-2 make the bar.  He makes the bar, and what chance do we have to win.

We have to hit here.

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[roadkillbooks]

I was counting the numbers that make a 6 prime and not "just" the bar

[dorbel]

Spoiler

The thing about putting a checker on the ace point is that one of two bad things can happen next turn; either it gets hit (bad because we then have three men back) or it gets missed (bad because we then have a checker out of play which will probably have to be covered next turn). White has a prime and we need a prime to compete, so 13/9, 8/5 is probably best. Of course it is bad when it gets hit, but White isn't improving his prime when he is hitting (except 2-2 of course). When it is missed, we have a crucial point slotted.
This is typical of cubeless games, you have to stay pure and that means making points in order. I don't buy the "We must hit to stop him from extending his prime" argument. White does have 14 rolls to make the bar, but he has 22 rolls that don't. Moreover, if you slot the 5pt, he will have to hit there when he can anyway, cutting him down to seven rolls that make the bar.

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[stog]

Spoiler

mm i like it even more!!-- am almost persuaded to switch my vote right now - but i shall read any other views first
thx dorbel

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[diane]

Spoiler

I am not keen on hitting anything loose here, and even less keen on slotting anything that doesn't involve a hit...why - because, well, I keep seeing that wall of white out of the top corner of my eye.... I liked 13/10, 8/4 from pretty much my first instinct, because it doesnt leave direct shots, but does increase flexibility, which I feel has been a problem over the last couple of rolls for us.  Can someone explain what I am missing, and why I should not be frightened, so that I can change my vote 

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I keep seeing that wall of white out of the top corner of my eye.... Can someone explain what I am missing, and why I should not be frightened, so that I can change my vote  

Gammons don't matter.  We've already got two checkers behind the "wall", and a third won't make much difference if you neglect gammons.  So, make the play that gives us the best winning chances gammons be damned, which (probably) means slotting a valuable point ala Dorbel or hitting as I advocate.  

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

diane, try to see 13/10, 8/4 as wrong for two reasons. It gives White 6-3 and 5-4 as great rolls, which are currently lemons. It also exerts no real pressure. If he can't hit the blot on the 10pt, or run past, he mostly just makes a five or six prime. When he can't hit the blot you have 5-1, 5-3, 3-1 and 1-1 to make the 5pt, which isn't a lot, plus also you have duplicated all those numbers to make the 3pt! Worth noting here that moving a checker 8/4 or 6/4 when you are aiming to make the 5pt is almost always wrong!
Slotting is the way to go, exerting real pressure on White. Shuffling builders is just too slow, you need that 5pt asap, next roll ideally. When you get hit, you are a favourite to re-enter immediately anyway. I like to think of the board with a large flashing red arrow pointing to the point or points that I most want next. Here, apart from the opponent's bar point perhaps, that is clearly the 5pt. Let's go for it!

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[adrian]

Have fun folks - and here is hoping Adrian and Steifnu get a chance to vote this time 

Done! You can move it on now !

[diane]

Spoiler

Gammons don't matter.  We've already got two checkers behind the "wall", and a third won't make much difference if you neglect gammons.  So, make the play that gives us the best winning chances gammons be damned, which (probably) means slotting a valuable point ala Dorbel or hitting as I advocate. 

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ok.... You both tell a good story  

[diane]

Done! You can move it on now !

[stiefnu]

and here is hoping Adrian and Steifnu get a chance to vote this time

Thanks Diane, I sure did.  In fact - between you, me and the girls in the powder room - I've changed my vote twice already! 

[ah_clem]

Looks like all the usual suspects have weighed in, so we might as well move this along.

I've already done a rollout, so I'm done arguing this one.

[diane]

Yes, I meant to, but  events took over this evening, I will try to do it in  the morning before I go to work - sorry for the delay!

[ah_clem]

Yes, I meant to, but  events took over this evening, I will try to do it in  the morning before I go to work - sorry for the delay!

No need to apologize - this is a volunteer gig and if anybody gives you a hard time, tell 'em they can pound sand.

Now that we've moved it along, here's the rollout:

Spoiler

Dorbel gets it right again, and the forum was wise to let him sway the vote. Slotting the 5 and bringing down a builder is the best play. Next (and not all that close) is slotting the 3 (!) and bringing down a builder, followed closely by bringing down two builders.

The idea is clear - take some risks and try to build a blockade in front of the runner.

Hitting loose on the ace point is about a .05 error.  The passive 13/10 8/4 (which was the leading vote getter until Dorbel weighed in) is even worse at .067.






    1. Rollout          13/9 8/5                     Eq.:  -0.537
       0.254 0.050 0.005 - 0.746 0.353 0.011 CL  -0.537 CF  -0.537
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          13/9 6/3                     Eq.:  -0.579 ( -0.042)
       0.239 0.045 0.004 - 0.761 0.356 0.017 CL  -0.579 CF  -0.579
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    3. Rollout          13/10 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.581 ( -0.044)
       0.232 0.038 0.006 - 0.768 0.331 0.012 CL  -0.581 CF  -0.581
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    4. Rollout          8/1*                         Eq.:  -0.586 ( -0.049)
       0.227 0.045 0.002 - 0.773 0.315 0.010 CL  -0.586 CF  -0.586
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    5. Rollout          8/5 8/4                      Eq.:  -0.591 ( -0.054)
       0.228 0.042 0.006 - 0.772 0.325 0.013 CL  -0.591 CF  -0.591
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    6. Rollout          13/10 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.604 ( -0.067)
       0.218 0.036 0.004 - 0.782 0.275 0.012 CL  -0.604 CF  -0.604
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    7. Rollout          8/4 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.611 ( -0.073)
       0.216 0.038 0.003 - 0.784 0.308 0.011 CL  -0.611 CF  -0.611
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    8. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  -0.615 ( -0.078)
       0.207 0.037 0.006 - 0.793 0.255 0.007 CL  -0.615 CF  -0.615
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
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