FBM3 game 1 moves 7 & 8

[stog]

Forum to move 55

please ask if you want more options... thx

[dorbel]

Spoiler

I don't really want to hit here. The simple 16/11, 13/3, 8/3 looks good. If we go for the 8/3(2), 6/1*(2) option, we have to give 8 return shots, which seems a lot when we have escaped and the opponent has a nice little prime. When we go for the safer option, probably 16/11, 13/8, 6/1*(2), then we are left with that huge gap in the middle of our board that we have to fill. I think we make the solid positional play and tiptoe towards a nice solid double in a roll or two.

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[vegasvic]

Spoiler

16/11 13/3 8/3 would be in my humble opinion the best play

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

I would hit without any thinking, but with safe hit 16/11 13/8 6/1*(2). There is possibility of dance with quite close take/pass, so this hitting play gives chances to immediatly win whole point. I don't care about the gap either, because even without it we are likely to leave indirect shots and I can't see how this would be much more likely with one point already made, which would still leave one spare in 6-point. I would have also hit with that 3-1. Priming looks odd if other player has already escaped. Hit, hit, hit.  

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

While it's tempting to blitz with 8/3(2) 6/1*(2), our opponent's four point blockade and our two blots make it too risky. Better to take a solid position with 16/11 13/3 8/3.  Clean up both blots, make a homeboard point and start clearing the midpoint.  What's not to like?

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[vegasvic]

Spoiler

sorry guys i did not know how to hide my comment

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[NIHILIST]

No one listens to you anyway.

Bob

[stog]

ok next
schig 31

[Schigolch]

24/23 13/10

[blitzxz]

Njah, I was wrong as usual. 0-ply rollout.

Spoiler

    1. Rollout          16/11 13/3 8/3               Eq.:  +0,674
       0,692 0,100 0,004 - 0,308 0,049 0,003 CL  +0,452 CF  +0,674
      [0,002 0,002 0,000 - 0,002 0,001 0,001 CL   0,004 CF   0,012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 2440710746 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    2. Rollout          16/11 13/8 6/1*(2)           Eq.:  +0,613 ( -0,061)
       0,660 0,110 0,002 - 0,340 0,059 0,002 CL  +0,387 CF  +0,613
      [0,002 0,002 0,000 - 0,002 0,001 0,001 CL   0,005 CF   0,012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 2440710746 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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