Game 2 Move 1 Forum to play 6-2

[ah_clem]

Now it's our turn to play 6-2

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I think hitting on the bar point is a must. It slots a valuable point, knocks our opponent off balance by putting him on the bar, and prevents him from making that valuable point.   

Where to play the 2?

Shuffling the backmen doesn't gain us much - we've already split.  Continuing on to the 5 is poor - without a builder around it's a fool's errand.   Slotting the 4 is unnecessarily risky.

That leaves bringing down a builder with 13/11. 

13/7* 13/11

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

Of course we hit, but I am not convinced that 13/11 is the best 2. Our only good sixes next turn will be to cover or hit again, depending on what Red throws. We don't want to have to break the midpoint for that, so a builder there is very useful. I like 23/21, improving our coverage of Red's outfield and slotting a good anchor. 

[close]

[ah_clem]

expurgated bot results.  Since we have a cube decision to make, these results only include relative equity.

Spoiler

Hitting is clearly best.  But bringing down the bulider is inferior to either of the backmen plays.  Let's see if I can understand why:

13/11 leaves another blot - granted, facing an open board that shouldn't make much of a difference, but a blot is a blot.  The real reason as I see it is that we get hit on the bar a lot (15/36) and when we do having an advanced anchor-point already slotted makes it more likely that we'll make a good anchor.  Presumably, this outweighs the covering ability of the builder.  And it seems obvious that if we're going to slot an anchor point, we might as well slot the better one, thus 23/21.

BTW, I ran a rollout, but gnubg lost it for some reason.  The results were not that different, so I'm not going  to wait for another rollout.  Here's the 2-ply analysis.



   1. Cubeful 2-ply    23/21 13/7*                  Eq.:  xxxx
     
   2. Cubeful 2-ply    24/22 13/7*                  ( -0.036)
     
   3. Cubeful 2-ply    13/11 13/7*                  ( -0.060)
     
   4. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7*/5                      ( -0.080)
     
   5. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7* 8/6                    ( -0.095)
     
   6. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7* 6/4                    ( -0.190)
     
   7. Cubeful 2-ply    13/5                         ( -0.199)
     
   8. Cubeful 2-ply    24/18 23/21                  ( -0.219)
   
       2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[diane]

 

I love being right, even when I am in a minority with dorbel

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

13/11-13/7* strips the mid point TOO early in a game that almost nothing is yet clear.

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