Game 1, move 4: Herd 5-1

[diane]

Position ID: 4G3wAlBkc+KAJA
Match ID: cImmAAAAAAAA


gilesashton rolled 6-1, and entered on the 24, leaving the other checker on the bar, so Herd is now to move. The 5 is pretty obvious I think, so we are just discussing where to put the 1, and if any one is significantly better than anywhere else...

so herd to move 8/3, and....

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

No real surprise that the Herd chose the correct move here.  I was curious about the cube action - since we cashed next turn I was wondering whether we missed a cube.  gnubg says Nope.




    1. Rollout          22/21 8/3                    Eq.:  +0.603
       0.610 0.239 0.015 - 0.390 0.085 0.005 CL  +0.410 CF  +0.603
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.016]

    2. Rollout          24/23 8/3                    Eq.:  +0.581 ( -0.022)
       0.606 0.229 0.014 - 0.394 0.086 0.007 CL  +0.404 CF  +0.581
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.019]

    3. Rollout          10/9 8/3                     Eq.:  +0.538 ( -0.065)
       0.602 0.225 0.014 - 0.398 0.092 0.007 CL  +0.388 CF  +0.538
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.018]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888372887 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]



Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.410 (Money:  +0.371)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.595
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.405)
3. Double, take         +0.529  ( -0.065)
Proper cube action: No double, take (13.9%)

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.613 0.226 0.012 - 0.387 0.086 0.007 CL  +0.410 CF  +0.595
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.016]
Player gnubg owns 2-cube:
  0.616 0.224 0.012 - 0.384 0.087 0.010 CL  +0.886 CF  +0.529
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.014 CF   0.020]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 888372887 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

[close]