Game 3, move 5: ah_clem 2-2

[diane]

What would you like sir?

[ah_clem]

Another tough play.

Let's take stock - I've got the better anchor and the better board, but both advantages are marginal.  The Herd is about 4 pips ahead in the race, but has a blot exposed in the inner board which may allow me to play a bit more riskily.

One option is to transition to a holding game by moving up to the 18.  This is viable, and may well be best.  For one thing, I understand holding games pretty well, so I'll probably make fewer mistakes going forward.  But being behind in the race I'm loath to move my anchor forward, plus there's a good chance of an exchange of hits and I'd like to keep the anchor for that.

The next option is to make the 8 point.  This gives me a broken 4-prime, which is worth something, but not as much as I give up by abandoning the midpoint in my estimation.  With 11 points separating my anchor and the rest of the men my army is cut in half.  This might be ok if the prime was stronger.

Or I can make the three point.  Normally, you don't want to dump checkers behind the anchor when you're behind in the race, but here I've got lots of checkers on the 5,6, and 7 and they have to go somewhere.  The three point is the next obvious point to make, and if I'm right about an exchange of hits having another homeboard point will be a plus.  If nothing else, the three point will be an asset for the rest of the game.  So, make the three it is.

So, where to play the other ace?  The obvious choice is 20/18 or 7/5.  I was going to play 20/18 - get that useless spare moving, use the blot on the four as an excuse to play boldly.  However, this is volunteering a shot in a (quasi) holding game. Granted I only see 11 shakes that hit and cover the blot, but giving the Herd a tempo hit turns a lot of mediocre rolls into good ones.  I'll play the boring 7/5.

7/3(2)

Now that I've made my move, any comments?