Game 1, move 14: Herd 4-4

[diane]

steifnu danced again with 2-6

It seems it might be hard for the Herd to go wrong with this one..so is it that simple? are there pitfalls to avoid?

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

15/7 13/5 leaves all numbers playing safely and the men towards the high end of the board, so we'll have time to get a few off before letting him out. 15/11 13/1 is a poorer distribution and 15/3 13/9 must be a blunder because it embarrasses us after 66, 55, 65...

[close]

[ah_clem]

If we play 15/3, 13/9 then 66, 65, and 55 force us to leave a shot.  That would be a blunder.

The other two rolls allow us to play all our numbers without leaving a shot. 15/7, 13/5 means we'll have to leave a gap if we roll 55, but I think that it's worth risking that to avoid burying a checker on the ace.  The two plays are probably quite close, but I think 15/7, 13/5 has the edge.

15/7, 13/5.

[stiefnu]

Will the Herd be forced to leave me a gammon-saving shot, followed by an unlikely dance and an unlucky sequence that allows me to recube?  Time will tell.  Meanwhile, no douible.