Game 2, move 7 : Herd cube decision

[diane]

I thought I would pause for thought here..

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

We've got a spare point to play with at the back of the prime - unless Patti's been practising 61s - so if we come in we both have about the same spare time before breaking up, with us on roll (bad) but one escape route already open (good). Dances, on the other hand, are all very good for us.

What makes me hesitate is that the position is extremely volatile, Patti can take as deep as about 18% at this score, and we might find a 4-cube coming straight back at us. She'll still have running chances off the anchor even after closing us out and crashing, so I can't see many sequences that lose the market this roll. Hold it and hope for a dance.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If we can sit on the bar for the next two rolls I think we have over 90% to win. A 61 allows os to leap out, so those don't crunch our board.  That gives 25/36 rolls that are good for us, and to roll that twice in a roll is about a 50% prospect.  If we do enter with a 1 and don't leap out, we're probably about 50-50. That gives a back of the envelope winning chance of about .5(.9) + .5(.5) == 45% + 25% or about 70%, so we're in the doubling window.

Market losers?  You bet.  Is it a take?  Not sure, so by Kit's law I say ship it.

The match score gives me pause - we may have to eat an unpleasant re-cube - but I'll ship it anyway.

Double.

[close]