Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 1

[stog]

ok Game 1 Move 1 of this 5 point match (you have to Register to see diagrams and to to vote)

The Herd (Fibsboard members) to play opening 5 2..

your votes & comments please..

[elmicho]

Well - here we go - if this is correct window for me to place a comment anyhow.
The suspence is amazing  )

[stog]

this is the herd's move but your time will come..

welcome to fibsboard!

you can vote for the Herd if you like


perhaps not later on when we have a tied vote for a crucial move but we don't know who's voted so click a move above

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

For money, splitting comes out ever so slightly ahead. But bringing down a builder (13/11 13/8) wins a bit more gammons while not winning quite as many games.

While the gammon price at 5a 5a is the same as for money, a good recipe for winning short matches is to get soem gammon chances and ship the cube. That makes me want to play the more aggressive opening.

13/11 13/8

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[ah_clem]

We are nowhere near a cube after this move, so we don't give anything away with the rollout.  Since we shook a 55 on move 2 and blitzed, this will be the last rollout for a while - at least until the cube action is moot.

rollout:

Spoiler

This is a book opening, so I didn't have to roll it out myself.  As with money play, splitting very narrowly edges bringing two down, but the difference is so small that it's more a question of what style do you want to play as opposed to D being wrong.

Note that as with any aggressive opening, much of the value comes from the additional gammons and the herd will have to play precisely in order to convert those.

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:5:10

X:X   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O    |   | O              X |
| X           O    |   | O              X |
| X           O    |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X              O |
| O           X    |   | X              O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 167  O: 167 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 52

    1. Book¹       24/22 13/8                   eq:+0.004
      Player:   50.12% (G:13.88% B:0.74%)
      Opponent: 49.88% (G:13.62% B:0.61%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.000..+0.008) - [99.7%]

    2. Book¹       13/11 13/8                   eq:-0.004 (-0.009)
      Player:   49.74% (G:15.08% B:0.94%)
      Opponent: 50.26% (G:14.64% B:0.82%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.009..+0.000) - [0.3%]

    3. Book²       13/8 6/4                     eq:-0.049 (-0.054)
      Player:   48.81% (G:13.91% B:0.73%)
      Opponent: 51.19% (G:14.63% B:0.88%)
      Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.056..-0.042) - [0.0%]

    4. Book³       13/6                         eq:-0.095 (-0.099)
      Player:   47.53% (G:13.32% B:0.61%)
      Opponent: 52.47% (G:14.73% B:0.66%)

    5. 3-ply       13/11 8/3                    eq:-0.141 (-0.145)
      Player:   46.50% (G:13.12% B:0.66%)
      Opponent: 53.50% (G:15.71% B:1.00%)


¹Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 1
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

²Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Dice Seed: 38613390
  Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

³Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
  Analyzed in XG Roller++


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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