Game 3 move 2 The Herd to play 6-3

[ah_clem]

Run, slot, or play safe?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I like the running play because if we are not hit we're in great shape, and if we are hit, we haven't lost much since his board is weak.  But although his board is weak, his blockade is strong and improving so we want to get out now before we're stuck behind it.

Playing to the 4 point is safe, but prematurely burries a checker.  I doubt it's all that bad (and for all I know it's better than running), but I want to get out of Dodge ASAP.

Besides, the Boss says so.

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[r_monk]

Spoiler

I like the running play because if we are not hit we're in great shape, and if we are hit, we haven't lost much since his board is weak.  But although his board is weak, his blockade is strong and improving so we want to get out now before we're stuck behind it.

Agree. 24/15 for me too.

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[ah_clem]

The vote's close, so I'm going to leave this for tomorrow morning.  Hopefully I won't wake up to a tie.

If there is a tie, the tiebreaker is number of individuals commenting with reasons supporting their decision.  So those of you supporting 13/4, tell us why you think it's better than running.

[stog]

Spoiler

i like 13/4 as it develops our own board - he has none yet, so i would suggest that we can escape the lone chequer later...and remain a while to handicap his easy point and board formation. we also start to breakup our midpoint sausage - so to speak  

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[r_monk]

Spoiler

Problem with 13/4 is we don't make any progress, it's too passive. We invite Zorba to build his board or trap us inside. With 24/15 he won't have the opportunity to do that, because he has to react. If he can't hit, it will be really nice for us. If he can it's no big deal: he still has to focus on our blot, and he has to escape his 2 checkers too.

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[stog]

Spoiler

ok am persuaded - have switched!

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

gnubg 0-ply thinks running is best; the other move is a double whopper.


    1. Rollout          24/15                        Eq.:  +0.234
       0.570 0.122 0.014 - 0.430 0.104 0.003 CL  +0.139 CF  +0.234
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]

    2. Rollout          13/10 13/7                   Eq.:  +0.024 ( -0.210)
       0.521 0.161 0.019 - 0.479 0.144 0.005 CL  +0.032 CF  +0.024
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]

    3. Rollout          13/4                         Eq.:  +0.013 ( -0.221)
       0.518 0.159 0.019 - 0.482 0.138 0.005 CL  +0.023 CF  +0.013
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]

    4. Rollout          24/21 13/7                   Eq.:  -0.007 ( -0.241)
       0.521 0.153 0.017 - 0.479 0.149 0.005 CL  +0.011 CF  -0.007
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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