FIBS Board backgammon forum

I am basing my decision to take as much on this post, as because I think it is a take.  http://www.fibsboard.com/feedback-questions/playing-backgammon-against-the-computer-t2350.0.html;msg17560#msg17560  Unless I have misunderstood this post, this is saying that with one on the bar, on roll, roadkill has the double, and we should take.

if this was a 7 or 9 point i would take but it is a 5 pointer and we cant afford to go 4 down so....

His assets: a three point board, two builders threatening to make a fourth point (9/36 or 25% chance to do this next roll), an opponent's checker on the roof, and a 15 point lead in the pipcount.  Thus a lead in position, race, and threats - definitely a double.

Our assets: one escaped backman. That's it.   We're in bad shape here. PASS.

Remember we talked about THE THREE Ps ? Pips, prime, position.................how many of those 3 do we have ?


PASS.

I think we can eek out a take here. An early 5-5 blitz double happens quite often, so it's handy to have reference positions for it. My closest reference here is if we ignore road's opening 4-1, and pretend we opened with a 6-5, followed by this 5-5 hit and dance. That position is in fact not good enough to double, although it's close. It's a huge take then, obviously.

Here, road has several advantages compared to that one: 5 pips gained in the race (a minor consideration), split backcheckers (this may look unimportant, but it can greatly help when the blitz fails. It increases anchoring chances then, but also chances to run home ASAP and it creates extra flexibility, which is very valuable after a failed blitz), and most important of all, a builder on the 9, which greatly increases chances to make another homeboard point, or attack us if we enter.

These improvements, especially that extra builder, make it a very strong double. But it seems unlikely that this would be enough to turn a no double into a double/pass. roadkill has no other blot to shoot at, as is the case with many other 5-5 blitz doubles.

The matchscore makes doubled gammons more valuable than usual and this surely is a very gammonish double. However, the matchscore also makes our recubes more powerful and that compensates for a large part. It's probably a bigger take for money, but not a large difference.

We are behind in race. We have horrible inflexible position. We are on bar and roadkillbooks is threatning immediate close out with three builders and more to come. And doubled gammons lead to valuable crawford game. PASS.

Man, you lot are CHICKEN     I stick with take, but looks like I will be outvoted, unless Zorba made a persuasive argument there  

Quote from: Zorba on June 21, 2009, 03:28:55 PM
I think we can eek out a take here.

When I first looked at the position I thought it was a take too.  Surely we have more than a 25% chance of coming back to win.  But then I looked at the looming blitz, and thought about how often we get gammoned here.  I don't think it's worth the risk of being 4 down in a match to 5.

My hunch is that it's a fairly close take/pass decision, but I'll stand by my decision to bail now before the whole match goes south.

I vote pass. This reminds me of some horrible, quick matches against bots. Roadkill has some excellent chances to make another point in his home board. We have nothing particularly good happening anywhere on the board. Run away and live to fight another day.