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Game 2, move 10: Herd to Cube?

Started by diane, August 23, 2010, 09:10:25 AM

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diane

August 23, 2010, 09:10:25 AM
trw3AADb7QYAQA:cAmgAAAAEAAA

Never give up on the things that make you smile

PersianLord

#1
August 23, 2010, 12:15:44 PM
Spoiler
Don't cube. We just have a 36% chance of hitting him and if we fail, he will cube us out and it'll be 2-2. A huge lead (2-0 in a 5-pointer) goes to air just because of our over-aggression.

Another point in favour of holding the cube might be the value of gammons. My bet is that we have a good chance of winning a gammon now (my guess: 8% to 15%). So if we hold the cube and hit, we will get the full value of our gammon chances as we'll get 2 points and make it into Crawford game. But if we throw the cube and hit, our gammons will NOT be as valuable because we'll get 4 points while we only need 3 points to win the match.

I haven't played money sessions so far, (I plan to play for money soon though), but I think this is one of the situations that White must beaver should Blue throw the cube. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Regards,

PL
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The leftist's feelings of inferiority run so deep that he cannot tolerate any classification of some things as successful or superior and other things as failed or inferior. This also underlies the rejection by many leftists of the concept of mental illness and of the utility of IQ tests.  - T.K

diane

#2
August 23, 2010, 12:32:18 PM
Quote from: PersianLord on August 23, 2010, 12:15:44 PM
Spoiler
Another point in favour of holding the cube might be the value of gammons. My bet is that we have a good chance of winning a gammon now (my guess: 8% to 15%). So if we hold the cube and hit, we will get the full value of our gammon chances as we'll get 2 points and make it into Crawford game. But if we throw the cube and hit, our gammons will NOT be as valuable because we'll get 4 points while we only need 3 points to win the match.
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Spoiler
That was pretty much my reason for being a no here...
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Never give up on the things that make you smile

ah_clem

#3
August 23, 2010, 12:55:20 PM
Spoiler

If we roll a four, we win.  That's 11 plus 3-1 for a total of 13 rolls that win outright.

5-4 5-5 and 5-6 also "win" (or at least get us to double pass).  So that's 18 very good rolls for us. 

5-1 5-2 5-3 and 4-1  give us about a 50% chance of winning.  The other 10 rolls suck and the cube comes whipping back across the table.

The 13 rolls that hit give us a gammonish position, and we waste a point with the cube at 2.  This and the recube vig lead me to think holding the cube is correct. With the cube in the center if we roll a 4, we're probably cruising to Crawford and if we roll one of the 10 bad rolls we're probably looking at being even at 2-2.  If we cube here,  we're risking going to Crawford in the other direction.  The reward is not worth the risk.
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NIHILIST

#4
August 23, 2010, 02:58:10 PM
Spoiler
It's not at all clear that if we roll a 4 "we win." We have by my count 4-5, 4-6, 5-5 and 5-6 that probably "win" for us, but the flip side is 4-3, where we then have 22 numbers to escape and the not so good 4-4.

Back in the day a fellow wrote a book on cube strategy and gave the sage advice to USE THE CUBE AS A WEAPON, NOT AS A GIFT.

So, is turning the cube punishing or gifting our opponent ? If I were on the receiving end I would grab the cube so fast it would never hit the table.

Seems to me we are in a position where we are a favorite to become the favorite with the 13 hitting rolls and the 4 non-hitting escaping rolls............oops, that's only 17 of 36. If we fan or roll 1-1, 1-2 or 1-6, 13 numbers, we're likely to get rewhipped.

As far as money play goes, if it's not a beaver, it's pretty close.

Bob
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Robert J Ebbeler

ah_clem

#5
August 23, 2010, 04:55:53 PM
Spoiler
Quote from: NIHILIST on August 23, 2010, 02:58:10 PM
...the 4 non-hitting escaping rolls............oops, that's only 17 of 36.

Ok, I'll admit I suck at this shot counting thing...

Trying it again, I see 6-5 and 5-5 as the non-hitting escaping rolls.  By my count that's only three, not four, giving us a total of 16 "winning" rolls.  What am I missing here?

BTW, I was counting 6-4 twice to get the 18.

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PersianLord

#6
August 23, 2010, 06:19:46 PM
Quote from: NIHILIST on August 23, 2010, 02:58:10 PM
Spoiler
It's not at all clear that if we roll a 4 "we win." We have by my count 4-5, 4-6, 5-5 and 5-6 that probably "win" for us, but the flip side is 4-3, where we then have 22 numbers to escape and the not so good 4-4.

Back in the day a fellow wrote a book on cube strategy and gave the sage advice to USE THE CUBE AS A WEAPON, NOT AS A GIFT.

So, is turning the cube punishing or gifting our opponent ? If I were on the receiving end I would grab the cube so fast it would never hit the table.

Seems to me we are in a position where we are a favorite to become the favorite with the 13 hitting rolls and the 4 non-hitting escaping rolls............oops, that's only 17 of 36. If we fan or roll 1-1, 1-2 or 1-6, 13 numbers, we're likely to get rewhipped.

As far as money play goes, if it's not a beaver, it's pretty close.

Bob
[close]

Spoiler
Great we have you commenting again. I just wanted to add that even if we roll a 1-5, White should re-cube in my opinion.

Glory be to THEE!

PL
[close]
The leftist's feelings of inferiority run so deep that he cannot tolerate any classification of some things as successful or superior and other things as failed or inferior. This also underlies the rejection by many leftists of the concept of mental illness and of the utility of IQ tests.  - T.K

diane

#7
August 23, 2010, 11:40:22 PM
ok, this seems clear cut...lets move along..
Never give up on the things that make you smile

ah_clem

#8
August 24, 2010, 01:52:08 PM Last Edit: August 24, 2010, 02:14:57 PM by ah_clem
rollout

Spoiler


It probably doesn't surprise anybody that cubing is an error here.  

I tried the position at various match scores and the cube decision is mostly independent of the match score. The exceptions are when he's two away - since he can't recube at two away it's correct for us to double.  I've rolled out the cube decision at 1-3 match score below.  It's also a double at 0-3 and 2-3.  

It's not a double for money either.  As for the beaver, gnubg didn't beaver at "grandmaster" evaluation so I'll assume that it's not a beaver, but I'm not sure how to coax  beaver decision stats out of gnu.





cubeless rollout equity  +0.415 (Money:  +0.382)
 0.646 0.009 0.000 - 0.354 0.014 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.310  ( -0.093)
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.598)
3. No double            +0.402  
Proper cube action:  No double, take


Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
 0.639 0.110 0.001 - 0.361 0.006 0.000 CL  +0.415 CF  +0.402
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.005]
Player r_monk owns 2-cube:
 0.631 0.115 0.002 - 0.369 0.007 0.000 CL  +0.958 CF  +0.310
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.008]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895296423 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]


////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Trailing 1 to 3


Cube analysis
cubeless rollout equity  +0.365 (Money:  +0.374)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.716
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.284)
3. No double            +0.387  ( -0.329)
Proper cube action: Double, take


Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
 0.640 0.107 0.000 - 0.360 0.014 0.000 CL  +0.365 CF  +0.387
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.006]
Player saleeby owns 2-cube:
 0.640 0.108 0.002 - 0.360 0.028 0.000 CL  +0.716 CF  +0.716
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.003 0.000 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895296423 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]


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