FIBS Board backgammon forum

Zorba danced with a 4-4.  Now it's our turn to make a cube decision.

I've been fiddling with gnubg so I have to recuse myself form the decision.

Position ID: sZ2FAVDWPIwLAA
Match ID: cAmgAAAACAAA

Spoiler

With cover shots of 3, 7, 10 & 11 (also with 52) we could have him on the bar, with one back, against a 4-point board. Too good to double/hold?

[close]

Hmmmm. Four votes for a hold.  Just out of curiosity, do you think it's not good enough to double or too good?

Maybe next cube decision I'll make them separate options, although I'd sum the results to arrive at the same result as if the only option is "hold".

Oh, and while I'm here, let me restate my policy that if a cube decision is tied at the end of the voting period we hold the cube - there needs to be a majority to cube.

Spoiler

I don't think it's too good. I'd be glad if he dropped and thrilled if he took.

HINT: Positions with an open 5 point generally aren't too good. Our best roll is 5-5 and I'm not 100% sure how I'd play it.

[close]

Bob

With the vote tied 4-4 at the end of the 24 hours, we roll.  No cube.

rollout

Note: this is the famous lost rollout that was orginally attributed to the other move 7 cube decision.  Is everyone clear now?

Spoiler

This is marginally too good. Cubing here would not be a very big error.  Kudos to the Herd for correctly analyzing a close decision.



////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
2-ply analysis:
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  +0.900 (Money:  +0.803)
  0.741 0.379 0.013 - 0.259 0.069 0.002
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +1.045
2. Double, take         +1.913  ( +0.868)
3. Double, pass         +1.000  ( -0.045)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (4.9%)

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

0-ply rollut

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.740 0.382 0.020 - 0.260 0.068 0.004 CL  +0.896 CF  +1.040
[0.001 0.002 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.010]
Player Zorba owns 2-cube:
  0.746 0.380 0.040 - 0.254 0.064 0.005 CL  +2.259 CF  +2.015
[0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.014 CF   0.017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random

dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]



1. No double            +1.040
2. Double, take         +2.015  ( +0.975)
3. Double, pass         +1.000  ( -0.040)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass

[close]

Not entirely...but that may be more due to cocktails last night than your inability to distinguish one move seven from another...

Just blame me...