Game 4 Move 4 The herd to play 4-1

[ah_clem]

  


4-1 to play

Position ID: sK+FASTgc8wBUA
Match ID: 8AmmAAAAIAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

yeeeeeech!



What's the least bad move here?

He'll likely point on our head again if we enter with the four, but I don't think I'm in the mood to give him any more blots to aim at and there's nothing to do with the four if we enter with the one.

Bar/21 24/23 is awful, but it may be the least awful.  I'm open to other suggestions...

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[r_monk]

Spoiler

Exactly what I think. Ugly, but I won't leave extra blots for him to hunt. 

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

Coming in on the 4-pt would give him 10 shots that both hit and cover.  Then moving up to the 23-pt would give him a couple more.  Double 2s and 4s would be particular devastating, putting both our back men on the bar, against a 3 or maybe even 4 point board.  An ace point game is rarely ideal but, under the circumstances, I think a more pragmatic move would be bar/24, 13/9.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I think we officially are in trouble here, but, again, cuz of the score, we cant get hurt too badly.

At this point I prefer to play with an anchor in his board, so my play is Bar-24, 13-9 It's true he has another blot to fire at, but its a 6 thats duplicated by the blot on his bar point.

Bob

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[stog]

Spoiler

bar/24 13/9 for me too, otherwise we stand to be hammered in the zone where surfers dread; the waves keep coming; you recover only to be smashed again. yes we need his 4 point, but we might need another stone back there, to get it

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Entering on the 21 and slotting the 5-point comes out on top.  Now that's a bot move if ever I saw one.  The Herd's move is a close second, with the other vote-getting play not far behind that.


    1. Rollout          bar/21 6/5                   Eq.:  -0.243
       0.397 0.126 0.024 - 0.603 0.322 0.015 CL  -0.243 CF  -0.243
      [0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          bar/21 24/23                 Eq.:  -0.258 ( -0.015)
       0.388 0.128 0.026 - 0.612 0.293 0.013 CL  -0.258 CF  -0.258
      [0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    3. Rollout          bar/24 13/9                  Eq.:  -0.266 ( -0.023)
       0.386 0.136 0.019 - 0.614 0.276 0.019 CL  -0.266 CF  -0.266
      [0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    4. Rollout          bar/24 8/4                   Eq.:  -0.290 ( -0.047)
       0.375 0.124 0.017 - 0.625 0.290 0.019 CL  -0.290 CF  -0.290
      [0.003 0.005 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    5. Rollout          bar/24 6/2                   Eq.:  -0.298 ( -0.055)
       0.370 0.132 0.013 - 0.630 0.280 0.017 CL  -0.298 CF  -0.298
      [0.003 0.005 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    6. Rollout          bar/24 11/7                  Eq.:  -0.334 ( -0.090)
       0.357 0.105 0.016 - 0.643 0.314 0.024 CL  -0.334 CF  -0.334
      [0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    7. Rollout          bar/21 8/7                   Eq.:  -0.345 ( -0.102)
       0.350 0.116 0.020 - 0.650 0.347 0.020 CL  -0.345 CF  -0.345
      [0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    8. Rollout          bar/21 11/10                 Eq.:  -0.348 ( -0.105)
       0.356 0.125 0.021 - 0.644 0.344 0.034 CL  -0.348 CF  -0.348
      [0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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