Game 2, move 2 : Herd 6-2

[diane]

move?

[Dungeoneer]

Not actually a spoiler, just my 2 cent (not yet backed by bot wisdom):

Spoiler

Hitting is mandatory -  let's exert the outfield control we got from the split and improve the race by hitting. 23/15* leaves lesser shots than 24/16* and looks a little deeper into our outer board where we'll need to build a 2nd point in order to get home more safely.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Obviously, we hit. THe question is whether to hit on the 16 or 15.

If we hit on the 16, we keep up the pressure by having a direct shot at the blot on the 15 next roll.  Granted, Julia will have a double direct at our blot, but she only has half a roll to play with.  Hitting on the 16 also leaves the deuce point slotted, which may be slightly better than having the ace point slotted.  I say hit on the 16, but I'm not sure about it.  24/16*

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[Dungeoneer]

A quick gnubg 0.90.0 (Jun  4 2012) rollout of both hits with some speed-up settings

Spoiler

    1. Rollout          23/15*                       MWC:  36.95%
       0.571 0.119 0.004 - 0.429 0.115 0.004 CL  35.54% CF  36.95%
      [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL   0.07% CF   0.08%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
        144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 919589559 and quasi-random dice
        Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0.01 (min. 144 games)
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Rollout          24/16*                       MWC:  36.83% ( -0.12%)
       0.561 0.128 0.004 - 0.439 0.120 0.004 CL  35.35% CF  36.83%
      [0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL   0.07% CF   0.07%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
        144 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 919589559 and quasi-random dice
        Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0.01 (min. 144 games)
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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