FBM3 game 1 moves 9 & 10

[stog]

Forum to move 61
just ask for more options thx

[blitzxz]

I think that you should have given double option here... After some thought I wouldn't have doubled here and propably most of the people wouldn't, so no harm done, but it is still quite close decision. 2-point anchor is just so weak.

[stog]

yes that was my thinkin too!

ps blitzxz could you help moderate this match or next  with ah clem (who might be ok to continue from tomorrow), and also would you like to play the forum in the near future? thx

who would everyone like to be invited as future players vs the forum?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Make the bar point or make the five point?  Normally, I'd choose to make the five without thinking about it too much, but here the bar does a better job of blocking the runners than usual, and it keeps the eleven as a landing spot while continuing to clear the midpoint.  Make the bar, but it's probably a close call and I'm notadverse to making the five .

As for the double, I wouldn't have voted to double, but it probably should have merited a quick vote.  Definitely pause before our next roll, unles something drastic happens.

[close]

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

Making our 5-pt leaves only 54 to hit us.  On the whole, I'd prefer to risk that now, while strengthening our board and giving us more flexibility after our next roll, with fewer bad numbers then, I reckon. 11/5, 6/5.

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

Clear double. Why weren't we asked? Make the 5pt.

[close]

[stog]

attached gnu .sgf match file for you ah clem to continue the match..........
gl thx
do ask myself or blitzxz or zorba or or diane or rkb if you need a hand/info on preparing uploads etc, or if you are going to be away>a day or so.....

[ah_clem]

attached gnu .sgf match file for you ah clem to continue the match..........
gl thx
do ask myself or blitzxz or zorba or or diane or rkb if you need a hand/info on preparing uploads etc, or if you are going to be away>a day or so.....

I'm ready to take over ... this is looking like a next, but I'll give it til tomorrow morning (Eastern US time) to see if anybody else wants to chime in.

I'm happy to facilitate during the week, but weekends are a bit difficult for me to cover now that ski season is starting - I'm hoping one of the other facilitators can fill in on weekends through the winter. I'll post the .sgf file on Fridays when I'm going away asking for a sub; I'll usually be back Sunday evenings. 

BTW, Stog has been running the match at a faster pace, so I'm thinking about continuing in that vein with ~24 hours per vote.  Lopsided votes will be moved along as it becomes clear.  If that's too fast, let me know, but I figure if you check in once a day you won't miss anything....and hopefully they'll be something to see each day.

While we're waiting for the laggards to get their votes in, we can muse over a 0-ply rollout of the most recent cube decision:

Spoiler

Close enough that we should have had a vote, but it's not a double.  We'll have a vote before next roll barring some outlandish joker.






Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.447 (Money:  +0.436)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.751
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.249)
3. Double, take         +0.694  ( -0.057)
Proper cube action: No double, take (18.7%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.702 0.075 0.003 - 0.298 0.042 0.002 CL  +0.447 CF  +0.751
[0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.011]
Player Schigolch owns 2-cube:
  0.704 0.075 0.003 - 0.296 0.043 0.003 CL  +0.901 CF  +0.694
[0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.009 CF   0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 842623946 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

BTW, Stog has been running the match at a faster pace, so I'm thinking about continuing in that vein with ~24 hours per vote.  Lopsided votes will be moved along as it becomes clear.  If that's too fast, let me know, but I figure if you check in once a day you won't miss anything....and hopefully they'll be something to see each day.

  I think the main difference is that stog and Schigolch are in the same timezone, and stog can get that move much more quickly...The majority of moves in the last match went at 24 hours, or less if possible...

[Schigolch]

Can I use GnuBG as well to analyse my moves right after the move has been made?

[ah_clem]

Can I use GnuBG as well to analyse my moves right after the move has been made?

Typically the Forum moves and cube decisions are rolled out and posted immediately after the decision or move is made.  It seems only fair to allow our opponent the same option. Granted, this sometimes informs the cube decisions so we're not playing "pure" backgammmon here.   

Lately, I've been posting the rollouts, but anybody is welcome as long as it's after the decision point.  I don't always roll out the opponent's move; if you want to post the results you are more than welcome.

[ah_clem]

 I think the main difference is that stog and Schigolch are in the same timezone, and stog can get that move much more quickly...The majority of moves in the last match went at 24 hours, or less if possible...

I didn't mean to dis the way you ran the last match. When we started these matches (before you took over) the voting period was 48 hours.  You kept that limit, but sensibly moved obvious decisions along. In this match, Stog didn't put a time limit on the polls, but moved the game along swiftly for whatever reasons.  I'm proposing a 24 hour voting period; unless I hear pushback form my teammates I'll give that a try.  We'll see how it goes and adjust accordingly.


BTW, this move has been nexted.

rollout:

Spoiler

Making the 5 point is heavily favored.  Stripping the eight and midpoints is worse than leaving a 1/18 fly shot. And we don't particularly want to hold the eleven.  Now that I see it, it's obvious.



    1. Rollout          11/5 6/5                     Eq.:  +0.987
       0.756 0.080 0.003 - 0.244 0.027 0.001 CL  +0.585 CF  +0.987
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.010]

    2. Rollout          13/7 8/7                     Eq.:  +0.898 ( -0.089)
       0.744 0.063 0.003 - 0.256 0.025 0.001 CL  +0.539 CF  +0.898
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.011]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 842623946 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]