Game 1 Move 5 Blitzxz Cube?

[ah_clem]

We rolled a 6-1 and played the only legal move.

Now it's another cube decision for the box.

[blitzxz]

Double.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

I thought this was a hard decision for blitzy, but  gnubg doesn't think it's close.  Presumably there are enough market losers to trigger the double here.

I also thought it was a clear take, when it's actually quite close - the take decision is within the margin of error.





Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.603 (Money:  +0.576)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.992
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.008)
3. No double            +0.820  ( -0.172)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.665 0.281 0.026 - 0.335 0.057 0.003 CL  +0.603 CF  +0.820
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]
Player Forum owns 2-cube:
  0.665 0.281 0.028 - 0.335 0.057 0.006 CL  +1.329 CF  +0.992
[0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.001 0.001 CL   0.017 CF   0.022]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840185179 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[blitzxz]

The rollout refers to the previous cube decision, I think. And it turned out to be huge blunder for me not to double. It's a surprise to me that I would get that much gammons. However, if you change the match equity table to jacobs-100-points-fish-table then it's borderline. So I was thinking here I must be over 100 point better then forum... LOL.