Game 1, move 20, dorbel to play 6-1

[Zorba]

A string of forced moves and obvious plays happened:

dorbel 6-3: 13/7 13/10*
Herd 3-2: DANCE
dorbel 4-3: 8/1 (closing the board)
Herd 3-1: DANCE
dorbel 5-5(!): 10/5 7/2 6/1(2) (forced move, opening up his sixpoint)
Herd 5-5: DANCE
dorbel 4-1: 24/23 5/1 (moving up with the 1 must be best)
Herd 6-3: B/19 (finally we can enter a checker!)

And now, dorbel with a 6-1 to play:



XGID=--aABBB-A-B--C-----AbbbceA:1:1:-1:61:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: 320DABC0TcaBQA:EYG4AAAAAAAA

[dorbel]

Sorry to be so long to play, moving house! The play is 23/22*/16. This costs the team more pips and removes a slot that may yet be useful.

[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

XG prefers to hit the outfield checker and leave the slot alone. This is a bit counter-intuitive, but I think it could be that the Herd's slot is actually more their liability than their asset, as the slot would provide dorbel with useful instant return-shots should we get lucky enough to hit him.

    1. Rollout¹    23/17* 17/16                 eq:+1,850
      Player  : 89,97% (G:84,29% B:0,77%)
      Opponent: 10,03% (G:0,65% B:0,03%)
      Confidence: ± 0,007 (+1,843<E<+1,857)
      Duration: 5 minutes 50 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    23/22* 22/16                 eq:+1,814 (-0,036)
      Player  : 88,86% (G:84,11% B:0,67%)
      Opponent: 11,14% (G:0,64% B:0,03%)
      Confidence: ± 0,007 (+1,807<E<+1,821)
      Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds


¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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