Game 3, move 22: Herd to move 1-1

[diane]

I moved this along, as the majority was clear. r_monk rolled 2-6, and we are now to play 1-1. This move has obviously a lot of possible permutations, I wonder here if there are any advantages to choosing one over another.  I have selected some moves, if there is good reasoning for another one, please add it.

s+0AAHg7twlQAA:UYmkAAAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Our next objective is to make the remaining open point, but no move brings another builder into range.  So I'm not seeing much of anything that favors one listed move over another. Of them,  16/12 is probably best since it makes a transition and doesn't force us to leave a blot if we roll consecutive double sixes.  But I doubt any of the other listed moves are very far apart.

One move that is different would be to slot the three point, but with his five point board and us not caring about gammons I don't think the risk is worth the reward.

I'm going to order off the menu and vote to shift points with 5/3(2).  We're just trying to win a single point here and r_monk's best chance is to make an anchor and give us trouble in the bearoff. And if he's going to make an anchor,  I'd rather have him on the 5 point than the three point.  Yes, this gives him a 55 joker, but I'm not sure that this puts him in much better shape than 33. 

[close]

[ah_clem]

The voting period ended with a tie, and seeing that nobody wanted to follow the 5/3(2) parade I'm switching my vote to 16/12 so as to move it along.  I doubt there's much of a difference between that and the other move.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

According to gnubg there are 194 distinct ways to play this roll.  Many thanks to diane for not listing them all as a possible vote.  2-ply analysis puts 19 plays within .01 of each other, and all moves listed as candidates were within that range.  Bottom line is that it's hard to go wrong here  unless you do something particularly stupid.

0-ply rollout gives more separation among the moves, and the point shifting move comes out on top by about .04.  I've listed the top ten, but moves 11-19 are not much different.  Moves getting votes are listed in bold.



   1. Rollout          5/3(2)                       Eq.:  +0.852
      0.929 0.828 0.121 - 0.071 0.004 0.000 CL  +0.852 CF  +0.852
     [0.001 0.007 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.002]

   2. Rollout          17/13                        Eq.:  +0.812 ( -0.039)
      0.907 0.820 0.183 - 0.093 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.812 CF  +0.812
     [0.001 0.006 0.007 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   3. Rollout          17/16 8/5                    Eq.:  +0.812 ( -0.040)
      0.907 0.821 0.175 - 0.093 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.812 CF  +0.812
     [0.001 0.006 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   4. Rollout          16/12                        Eq.:  +0.811 ( -0.040)
      0.906 0.822 0.179 - 0.094 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.811 CF  +0.811
     [0.001 0.006 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   5. Rollout          17/14 8/7                    Eq.:  +0.811 ( -0.040)
      0.906 0.823 0.171 - 0.094 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.811 CF  +0.811
     [0.001 0.006 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   6. Rollout          17/15 16/15 8/7              Eq.:  +0.810 ( -0.041)
      0.906 0.822 0.176 - 0.094 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.810 CF  +0.810
     [0.001 0.005 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   7. Rollout          16/14 8/6                    Eq.:  +0.808 ( -0.044)
      0.905 0.818 0.179 - 0.095 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.808 CF  +0.808
     [0.001 0.005 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   8. Rollout          16/13 8/7                    Eq.:  +0.807 ( -0.044)
      0.904 0.824 0.175 - 0.096 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.807 CF  +0.807
     [0.001 0.006 0.006 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

   9. Rollout          16/15 8/5                    Eq.:  +0.807 ( -0.045)
      0.904 0.819 0.173 - 0.096 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.807 CF  +0.807
     [0.002 0.006 0.006 - 0.002 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

  10. Rollout          17/15 8/6                    Eq.:  +0.807 ( -0.045)
      0.904 0.823 0.181 - 0.096 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.807 CF  +0.807
     [0.002 0.006 0.006 - 0.002 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]
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