Game 3 move 3 The Herd to play 6-3

[ah_clem]

We roll another 6-3

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If we were behind in the match, I'd hit loose with 15/9 6/3*.  At 2-0 I'm more cautious, so I'm going to vote for playing it safe with 15/6.  Yes, this makes two ugly candlesticks, but I don't like the look of his zone so I don't want to be hit. I wish there was a more flexible play, but  I'm not seeing it.

Actually, I think 15/9 6/3* has much to recommend it - we're probably going  to leave a blot anyway before long, and doing it now with his poor board and blot on the 5 makes some sense.  I just don't have the cojones to vote for it, but I could have my courage bolstered by the right argument.  Anyone?

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[ah_clem]

Playing around with the display settings in gnubg to get a better looking picture.  

[ah_clem]

About an hour left in the voting...

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's choice is best.  Everything else is a whopper.


    1. Rollout          15/6                         Eq.:  +0.395
       0.601 0.107 0.005 - 0.399 0.078 0.002 CL  +0.231 CF  +0.395
      [0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.010]

    2. Rollout          13/4                         Eq.:  +0.296 ( -0.099)
       0.581 0.118 0.014 - 0.419 0.091 0.003 CL  +0.174 CF  +0.296
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.012]

    3. Rollout          15/9 13/10                   Eq.:  +0.259 ( -0.136)
       0.576 0.130 0.013 - 0.424 0.111 0.003 CL  +0.159 CF  +0.259
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.011]

    4. Rollout          15/9 6/3*                    Eq.:  +0.252 ( -0.144)
       0.577 0.151 0.015 - 0.423 0.121 0.004 CL  +0.153 CF  +0.252
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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