Game 1, move 9: Herd 1-1

[diane]

Lots of things to mess up here, post them if you can thin of anymore 

[KDP]

Spoiler

i dont think hitting is the way to go here.  yes it puts him on the bar but with the open 5 pt and our 2 blots thats more return shots that im comfortable with.  if we are hit we are almost certain to lose the game. my move 7-5 6-5 18-17 closes the gap splits the back men to give us some better outfield coverage.  i think this is one of those rolls where you really have to think things through rather than play on autopilot.

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[Julia_H]

Spoiler

The problem either way is that we still have losing rolls.

After making 5: 61 to hit, 66 runs home, and 62, 63, 64 all leave us only an indirect shot to stay in the game. 65 gives us a direct 6 to put him back in his box.
After pointing: 52 and 53 hit, 55 runs home, 54, 56 leap to the outfield. 51 leaves the back man in the firing line for a triple shot.

If he does end up in the outfield, he has plenty of time to hang on for either a big number, or us having to leave a shot - so I think they are likely losses for us. So that looks not too uneven. However, I think the difference is in the next rolls. After making 5, we are going to struggle to make the ace naturally, and there's an ongoing risk of 66 to run, or running into the outfield, or picking off a fly shot. After pointing, we have three men aiming at the 5 to finish the job straight away. 3/1*(2)

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[stog]

Spoiler

i would like 8/7 3/2 and 18/16 as a choice; it gives one escape number 4 without risk of joker hit back (a possibility if we hit and cover on 1)and gives us 2 stones to use, should he escape with the 4

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[ah_clem]

I missed the voting period, but i would have gone for making the 5 point. My first instinct was to POH, and this may well be correct, but upon further reflection I came to like priming better.  Why?

Well, for one we're not likely to score a gammon here, so an aggressive attacking play isn't as valuable as usual.  Regardless of whether he's on the bar against a 5 point board or trapped behind a 5 prime he needs an 11/36 shake to enter/leap.   The difference is what happens when he misses - if he's on the bar his strong board remains intact while if he's stuck behind the prime his board crunches.  So I think we come out a bit better when he misses from behind the prime than when he misses from the bar, while it looks like a wash when he shakes the 11/36.  Well, not quite, since he still has to make it around the outfield and if we get a hit with the  5 filled in we have much better containment than if we have the ace.

All that said, I think the real deciding factor is which play allows us to cash more often.  I'm not entirely sure, but I think after a miss we're better off when his board starts to deteriorate.

I'm going to hold off on rolling this one out so as not to tip the upcoming cube decision.

[ah_clem]

ROLLOUT

Spoiler

This was a close one, so it's probably just as well that I didn't get to vote and cause a tie - we might still be arguing it today.

XG 3-ply analysis says that hitting is best by .009, but a full rollout favors making the 5 point.  That is, assuming you make the outfield split instead of moving 3/2 after covering the 5. 



XGID=-aBDB-CAA---------Bdbbdb--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|                X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                X |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                  |   | O        O       |
|                  |   | O        O       |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |          X       |
|                  |   | X        X       |
|                  |   | X     X  X  X    |
|             X  X |   | X     X  X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 93  O: 82 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 11

    1. Rollout¹    18/17 7/5 6/5                eq:+0.487
      Player:   64.98% (G:2.53% B:0.06%)
      Opponent: 35.02% (G:5.78% B:0.13%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.480..+0.495) - [99.7%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    3/1*(2)                      eq:+0.473 (-0.014)
      Player:   63.82% (G:1.19% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 36.18% (G:6.39% B:0.12%)
      Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.467..+0.479) - [0.2%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    7/5 6/5 3/2                  eq:+0.470 (-0.017)
      Player:   63.96% (G:2.66% B:0.06%)
      Opponent: 36.04% (G:5.22% B:0.08%)
      Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.462..+0.479) - [0.1%]
      Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds

    4. XG Roller++ 18/16 8/7 3/2                eq:+0.345 (-0.142)
      Player:   60.81% (G:1.12% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 39.19% (G:3.88% B:0.12%)

    5. 2-ply       18/17 18/16 8/7              eq:+0.346 (-0.141)
      Player:   62.54% (G:1.35% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 37.46% (G:2.81% B:0.09%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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