Game 1, Move 15: Herd to cube?

[diane]

so..things shifted a bit...

Herd rolled 6-3 and moved 13/10, 11/5
Linus rolled 2-1 and took two off
Herd rolled 6-6 and moved 10/4, 6/off (2), 5/off
Linus rolled 4-3 and took 2 off...now Herd has a cube to think about..

[KDP]

Spoiler

double

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Let's do a trice count:  Start with our pipcount of 34.  Add 2 for each spare on the ace, add 2 for each extra checker on the board (I think I'm remembering this right) to arrive at a total adjusted pipcount of 40.

subtrace 5, divide by 7, round down for (40 - 5)/7 = 5

Thus, Linus's point of last take is 5 behind in the race.  Since his position needs no adjusting, and 40 to 46 is a difference of six, it's double/pass.

I think the double is fairly clear.  This may be a narrow take, but that's not my problem.   Ship it.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

I'm on the road and don't have XG with me, so gnu will have to do.  Doesn't seem close enough that the choice of bot should matter...





Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.628 (Money:  +0.628)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.099  ( +0.099)
3. No double            +0.883  ( -0.117)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.814 0.000 0.000 - 0.186 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.628 CF  +0.883
[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL   0.000 CF   0.002]
Player Linus owns 2-cube:
  0.813 0.000 0.000 - 0.187 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.193 CF  +1.099
[0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 CL   0.000 CF   0.002]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678844642 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

[close]