Game 4, move 8 : Herd 6-4

[diane]

move?

[KDP]

Spoiler

8-4 8-2  it unstacks the 8 pt, keeps our small 3 pt prime, covers one of the blots and still give us a landing spot for our 2 guys on the 13

[close]

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

Giving up the bar is wrong, as is leaving a shot unnecessarily. But is there a big difference between 8/2 8/4 and 8/2 6/2? The latter gives us one more 6 before the mid splits at the expense of being awkwardly odd at the back, but neither move leaves a shot next time and White's position is probably only one roll from leaving the mid as well. 8/2 8/4 and hope not to roll 63.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

There are situations where clearing the bar point before the 8 is correct.  I don't thin this is one of them.  Had we already cleared the midpoint then clearing the bar point would probably be right, but not here.

That leaves playing two off the 8 or off the 8 and 6.  I like saving a transition and leaving a spare on the 8 - it looks more flexible in the medium term.  63 plays poorly for us if we play two off the 8.

I doubt there's a big equity difference between the two.  8/2 6/2.

[close]

[KDP]

i think we need to worry less about how our one worst # will play and concentrate more on making the best play.

[ah_clem]

XGR++

Spoiler

the herd's play comes out on top, with 8/2 6/2 not too far behind.





XGID=--AABbCBD---bB-----cbbbb--:0:0:1:64:3:1:0:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
| X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|             X    |   |                  |
|             X    |   | X                |
| O           X  X |   | X  O  X          |
| O           X  X |   | X  O  X  X  X    |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 103  O: 112 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 64

    1. XG Roller++ 8/4 8/2                      eq:+0.543
      Player:   68.94% (G:2.15% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 31.06% (G:1.59% B:0.03%)

    2. XG Roller++ 8/2 6/2                      eq:+0.513 (-0.029)
      Player:   67.59% (G:2.58% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 32.41% (G:2.03% B:0.04%)

    3. XG Roller++ 7/3 7/1                      eq:+0.499 (-0.043)
      Player:   67.05% (G:2.20% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 32.95% (G:1.77% B:0.03%)

    4. 1-ply       13/9 13/7                    eq:+0.057 (-0.485)
      Player:   55.33% (G:1.67% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 44.67% (G:4.30% B:0.16%)

    5. 1-ply       8/2 7/3                      eq:-0.042 (-0.585)
      Player:   53.95% (G:3.64% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 46.05% (G:7.40% B:0.10%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]