fibsboard match 20 Game 3 Herd recube?

[stog]

we hit and i moved the 52
roman danced..
do we recube?

[ah_clem]

I missed the vote, but I'll comment anyway.  Roman has the better board and is ahead in the race.  But he's on the bar with nine dancing numbers and has an exposed blot. If we hit the blot (12 shakes) and he fails to anchor (only three shakes anchor with two on the bar) it's definitely a market loser.  Or if he just dances, or if we make a fourth homeboard point.  So I  think we have the requisite market losers to cube, the question is whether we've already lost our market.  I think the fact that he leads in the race and has the better board plus an anchor on the bar point gives him enough to take.  And if it's a take, it's not TG.   I'm not convinced it's a take, so ship it according to Kit's law.

Rollout forthcoming.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

A fairly straightforward R/T.  Well done on both sides.


XGID=a---CCBbBB------a-Ccbbd---:1:1:1:00:2:2:0:7:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|          O     X |   | O  O  O  O       |
|                X |   | O  O  O  O       |
|                X |   | O        O       |
|                  |   |          O       |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  | O |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |    X  X          | +---+
|          X  X  O |   | X  X  X          | | 2 |
|          X  X  O |   | X  X  X          | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 127  O: 118 X-O: 2-2/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
  Player Winning Chances:   69.06% (G:26.48% B:0.91%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.94% (G:7.37% B:0.20%)
Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances:   69.32% (G:25.82% B:1.72%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.68% (G:7.50% B:0.46%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.639, Double=+1.089

Cubeful Equities:
       No redouble:     +0.850 (-0.093)
       Redouble/Take:   +0.943
       Redouble/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.057)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
  Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.841..+0.859)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0.013 (+0.930..+0.955)

  Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

  Duration: 7 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]