This is a very interesting position, because it nicely illustrates the different attitudes towards the cube. One sort of player likes to wait for something good to happen and win with the cube when it happens. The other sort of player likes to get the cube in when there is a very good chance of something good happening and a playable position when it doesn't.
I can't speak for the others who voted to hold, but my (incorrect) decision to hold was not based on "attitude" but rather a mis-judgement or the relative risks and rewards. I'm normally quite aggressive with the cube, especially at early stages of short matches. 'Get some gammon chances and push the cube' is sound advice in short matches and I have no qualms about making some small cube errors when the mistake is to cube too early. I think we are in perfect agreement the the time to cube is when something good is about to happen, rather than waiting until after it has happened.
In this case, I saw the very likely probability that we'd be looking at an unappetizing recube almost half the time, so something good was about to happen, but also something bad was equally likely to happen. How does one weigh that?
My first hypothesis was that I missed the boat by underestimating our winning chances after being hit (the open six point and the race lead gives us a lot of winning chances from the bar) so while 'good' and 'bad' might have been equally likely, 'good' is pretty good while 'bad' is not that bad. But looking at a variant where I moved the open point from the six to the ace it's still a cube (albeit not as strong) XGID=-CCCB-C--a-ab-----Abbbbc--:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2 Score is X:2 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+ | X | | O O O O O | | | | O O O O O | | | | O | | | | | | | | | | |BAR| | | | | | | | | | | | | X X X X | | O | | X X X X X | | O O O | | X X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+ Pip count X: 62 O: 98 X-O: 2-1/5 Cube: 1 X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller++ Player Winning Chances: 62.76% (G:10.26% B:0.05%) Opponent Winning Chances: 37.24% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.413, Double=+1.084
So even with a fairly mediocre 63% chance of winning instead of 73%, the abundant market losers still make it a cube.
O'hagen's law says you probably have a double if you can find 9/36 market losers, provided the non-market losers are not killers. Here we had 16 market losers, and the non-market losers are not really killer, so ship it.
BTW, for those observing from the peanut gallery, the fact that we shook an airball and may lose the match because of it does not mean holding was correct here. Those who voted to hold should not be saying "I told you so." Holding would have been an error.
After a lot of consideration of the most common clock issue and figuring out ways to recover, we have come up with a new command.
This really could work well.
Hey - wait what does this button do?
Well, we will see how it goes.
Here is the HELP for the command. (Yes SHOCKING I have the Help written *before* we start using it! That means I have thought about it a LOT)
You tell tbot help fixclock tbot says Syntax: TELL TBOT FIXCLOCK tn# Reason-for-correction tbot says FixClock - This command is used to tell TBOT that you were incorrectly put on the clock. tbot says This command is designed to address the most common situation of one player being away while the other is actively attempting to start the match. tbot says TBOT will tell you when you may be able to use the command, a summary of the conditions are: tbot says 1) You must be on the clock tbot says 2) Your time used must be more than your opponents tbot says 3) You must be past the 2 min warning. (*** WARNING You will timeout...) tbot says 4) Your opponent must be idle tbot says You may only use this command once per match, a use means all those conditions are met tbot says Your clock will then be adjusted to be slightly shorter than your opponents. tbot says If your opponent becomes active and you do not start the match then they may use the FixClock as well. tbot says 1) They must be on the clock tbot says 2) Their time used must be more than yours tbot says 3) They must be past the 2 min warning. tbot says Once they issue the command, this means that you both have indicated to TBOT that you wish to play the match and if the match is not started you will both be disqualified from the tournament. tbot says Reminder: This command is designed for the most common improper timeouts, the usage of this command will be monitored and if there is a pattern of abuse then individual players will lose use of the command.
In the coming days I am going to run some test tourneys using the TBOT id so we can play with it.
I am not sure when I will have time, but I am sure there will be people around.
In response to the question "which strategy is the best in the long run?", unquestionably the more aggressive policy. You can liken it to a choice of two paths across a mountain range, one long but relatively safe, one short but dangerous. The long path is tedious and dull, the short path is interesting every step of the way. You will see eagles! Live as you want to live! If you examine the play of any modern master you will see that they double aggressively. There are no successful modern players who are very conservative cube handlers.