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 61 
 on: October 12, 2014, 12:44:23 PM 
Started by stog - Last post by dorbel
Always a take, the herd's four blots mean that roman can get back into this very quickly, but the double decision is interesting. Not technically a cube here because of the score, a strong cube if the scores were reversed, but in a match a double is a good practical play. It costs you a tenth of a point in equity, but there is a triple whammy that pays for this. First you may get a bad pass and 16% chance of a pass here is enough to justify the cube on its own. Second, it means that you can't make a doubling mistake later and if you don't cube, you will certainly have some more decisions to make. Thirdly, your opponent holding the cube may well make one or more mistakes with recube decisions! Sometimes it's good to do something, even when it is wrong.

 62 
 on: October 12, 2014, 09:48:24 AM 
Started by stog - Last post by stog
roman takes

herd 52

note the colour of herd's last cube in pic

 63 
 on: October 11, 2014, 12:43:32 PM 
Started by stog - Last post by roman
Despite the gammon danger, i think this is a trivial take, i guess i will win 1 game out of 3; even pip count, no checker out of play, and you still have one man back; so i take this cube.

 64 
 on: October 11, 2014, 09:15:48 AM 
Started by stog - Last post by stog
roman would you like a cube?

 65 
 on: October 10, 2014, 03:14:27 PM 
Started by stog - Last post by ah_clem
XG summary for game 1. The herd turned in an excellent 2.03 PR while roman played a super-human .71  Well done on both sides!

The story is the dice and we got a joker or two at the end that made all the difference. A .6 luck equity is usually decisive in a one-game sample.

I'll post some rollouts on the relevant threads.


                        herd                       roman
 Level of Play          World Champ. (-0.0041)     World Champ. (-0.0014)
 Performance Rating     2.03                       0.71
 Checker Play           World Class (-0.0053)      World Champ. (-0.0018)
 Cube Play              World Champ. (+0.0000)     World Champ. (+0.0000)
 Luck                   Quite lucky (+0.0166)      Quite unlucky (-0.0166)
 Total Errors (Blunders)1                          1
   Equity (Cost)       -0.085 (-0.66%)            -0.030 (-0.19%)
   Decisions            21                         21
 Checker Errors (Blunders) 1                       1
   Equity (Cost)       -0.085 (-0.66%)            -0.030 (-0.19%)
   Unforced Moves       16                         17
  Cube Decisions        4                          3
  Take Decisions        1                          1
 Jokers                 4                          5
   Luck (Cost)         +0.596 (+12.86%)           -0.596 (-12.86%)
   Rolls                18                         18



 66 
 on: October 10, 2014, 01:34:35 PM 
Started by stog - Last post by ah_clem
Nine checkers in the zone is not overwhelming, but eleven is. If we bring down two and he dances we've lost our market.  He has nine dancing numbers, so I think O'hagen's law applies: Nine market losers with no or few rolls that are awful is a cube.

I don't think the match score affects this much. I say ship it.  It's probably a take, but that's Roman's problem not ours.


 67 
 on: October 10, 2014, 11:51:07 AM 
Started by stog - Last post by stog
herd rolled 5 1 and i took the executive decision to hit, roman then bounced on the bar with a 45

do we cube?

 68 
 on: October 10, 2014, 11:30:08 AM 
Started by stog - Last post by roman
13-8, 13-10, with no save play available, i unstack my midpoint, and if not hit, i will have a valuable builder.

 69 
 on: October 10, 2014, 10:35:06 AM 
Started by stog - Last post by stog
53

 70 
 on: October 09, 2014, 05:19:15 PM 
Started by stog - Last post by ah_clem

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