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Fibs Leagues and tournaments => Team Leagues => Topic started by: sixty_something on October 23, 2007, 12:05:19 PM

Title: TL4 Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on October 23, 2007, 12:05:19 PM
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, has just broken from the pack of five leaders with 3:1 odds for winning. This marks the first time since the season began a single team has taken such a lead, according to my simulation model. We've just passed the halfway pole in the Team League season with 267 games played, 246 unplayed.  Anything can and will still happen, but the reign of the Cube Sluts appears in serious jeopardy.

The odds are based on output from a stochastic simulation model I've been working on since the beginning of the season. The model uses current match results, pre-season FIBS ratings of each player by position, and the FIBS rating formula to predict the outcome of all unplayed matches. The current simulation run represents over 50,000 iterations or seasons with results from 267 games played (268 actually played as of this post).
   
Here are the current predictions. You will note they differ substantially from the team order in the standings displayed at the Team League website, but these are projections based on order of finish over the simulation run. Mathematically they're perhaps a better way to interpret how the teams actually compare with one another in the race to the finish.

I'll continue to post results from the model here from time to time as the season progresses. Good luck and good games to all.

sixty

~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~

Pre-season   Odds to % to Make Odds to
Team Rank   Team name   Win %     Win  PlayoffsMake Playoffs
    5   TakeTheMoneyAndRun    36.4%       3:1   19.4%   5:1
    2   Club Voodoo    14.0%       7:1   14.5%   7:1
   10   Last Minute   13.9%       7:1   12.2%   8:1
    1   Smack, Slap, and Spank   11.2%          9:1   10.9%   9:1
    3   Cube Sluts   8.9%      11:1   10.1%   10:1
    9   No Nuts A**hole   4.1%      24:1   8.2%   12:1
    4   Ottoman's Empire   3.7%      27:1   7.3%   14:1
    7   Virtual Addicts   2.6%      38:1   5.1%   20:1
   12   TBD   2.1%      47:1   3.8%   26:1
    8   Gammonizers   1.8%      56:1   5.1%   20:1
   11   schigstogsedat   0.8%     127:1   1.9%   53:1
    6   Lipstick & Testosterone   0.4%     244:1   1.0%   103:1
   16   Last Orders   0.1%    1,934:1   0.3%   344:1
   17   white punks on dope   0.0%   54,152:1   0.1%   671:1
   14   UN Trio   0.0%   54,152:1   0.0%   4,886:1
   19   two dicks and a chick   0.0%   54,152:1   0.0%   9,550:1
   15   MOJO   0.0%   54,152:1   0.0%   23,345:1
   13   three.DOG.night   0.0%      xxx   0.0%   3,001:1
   18   Last, But Not Least   0.0%      xxx   0.0%   210,103:1


(Note that Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on October 27, 2007, 12:15:24 AM
Within the first day with a lead, TakeTheMoneyAndRun has extended it. Among the other leaders, only LastMinute is keeping pace.

These odds are based on a 12,000 season simulation run from Team League standings early Wednesday morning, 10/24/07, with 278 matches played in the season.

[table=]
Pre-season Rank,         Team Name,      % to        Win,      Odds to        Win,      % to make Playoffs,   Odds to Make Playoffs
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   41.1%,   2:1,   20.2%,   5:1
10,   Last Minute,   16.4%,   6:1,   13.6%,   7:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   12.7%,   8:1,   14.4%,   7:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   8.3%,   12:1,   10.5%,   10:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   8.0%,   13:1,   9.6%,   10:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   4.3%,   23:1,   8.6%,   12:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   2.9%,   35:1,   7.0%,   14:1
12,   TBD,   2.1%,   47:1,   3.9%,   26:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   1.4%,   69:1,   3.1%,   32:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   1.3%,   77:1,   3.9%,   25:1
8,   Gammonizers,   1.1%,   94:1,   4.0%,   25:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   257:1,   1.0%,   99:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.0%,   4276:1,   0.2%,   648:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.1%,   1995:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   5541:1
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   7124:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   12466:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   49865:1
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: boomslang on October 27, 2007, 12:59:46 AM

I think there's something 'odd' about your predictions...
 
1) I don't see why "white punks on dope" have a lower chance (0%) of being successful (whether winning the league or reaching the playoffs) than for example "Lipstick & Testosterone".  My guess is that WPOD have quite a good chance to end up in top 4.

2) If "TakeTheMoneyAndRun" have 41.1% chance to win (i.e. reaching top 1), the chances of reaching the playoffs (i.e. ending up in top 4) would be at least 41.1% for them, so your 20.2% can't be correct.

Further more, a 20.2% chance would be a 1:4 odds and not 5:1 odds.


-- boomslang


Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on October 27, 2007, 02:54:10 PM
boomslang, you are correct there was something "odd" in my odds calculation .. a 25% chance of winning represents 1 out of 4 ways to win, but this is not 4:1 odds .. it is 3:1 odds .. i knew there was a good reason for not booking bets

this is very much a work in progress and a not very simple set of calculations .. so, it would not surprise me to find other errors as the season progresses, large and small .. thanks for pointing that most obvious one out

as, for your other observations and questions, the chances of making the playoffs % and odds are always going to be less than a teams chances of winning .. this is counter-intuitive, but remember the pool of candidates that "win" or make the playoffs increases from just one winner to 4 .. i think the model is correct on this one, but i'll check it as well

the white punks on dope issue points out something that needs more examination and may be a problem with the accumulation and tallying of team points based on matches played .. i suspect it is a result of changes made when we added a team recently and even more recently changed the name of a team .. both these changes caused serious indexing problems

due to the nature of the design of the model in Excel, this created quite a mess which requires a complex set of manual corrections .. apparently, it's not yet correct .. so, thanks for pointing out this potentially more serious error .. as i said, this is very much a work in progress and not a very simple one at that

before posting the next results, current through 315 matches, i'll do some serious debugging and probably not the last .. thanks for the observations and corrections

if anyone else sees something illogical, please let me know either here or in shouts

sixty

Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on October 27, 2007, 11:38:48 PM
TakeTheMoneyAndRun is now an even money favorite to win the Team League season according to the latest run of the simulation model .. Last Minute and No Nuts A**hole appear to have fallen well off the pace with Virtual Addicts closing fast, but still well back

thanks to boomslang, a problem with correctly reporting odds for white punks on dope has also been fixed .. as boomslang suggested, wpod is in 5th place in a race to make the playoffs .. btw, team TBD was renamed to Gno Mo Soup

so, after 315 matches completed this morning at 7:30am here are the current odds and predictions for a simulation run of 20,000 iterations or seasons (currently 321 matches have been completed)

[table=]
Pre-season Team Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs,   Odds to Make Playoffs
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   49.4%,   1:1,   21.0%,   4:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   13.9%,   6:1,   14.8%,   6:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   13.4%,   6:1,   12.5%,   7:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   7.0%,   13:1,   9.9%,   9:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   4.0%,   24:1,   7.3%,   13:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   2.8%,   35:1,   5.9%,   16:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   2.5%,   39:1,   4.8%,   20:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   1.8%,   53:1,   3.2%,   30:1
10,   Last Minute,   1.6%,   63:1,   3.2%,   30:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.2%,   84:1,   4.1%,   23:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.9%,   115:1,   9.2%,   10:1
8,   Gammonizers,   0.8%,   125:1,   2.2%,   45:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.8%,   126:1,   1.5%,   65:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1050:1,   0.3%,   290:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0,   0.2%,   573:1
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   4626:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   83280:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: webrunner on October 28, 2007, 10:50:07 AM
Nice tables Sixt, i like the sorting feature ;)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on October 29, 2007, 09:15:41 AM
when i began working on this model the preliminary races of the Breeder's Cup, horse racing's premier event each fall, were being run on TV .. i began thinking of the order of the teams as a pack of horses breaking from the gate .. while the odds to win and/or make the playoffs (if any) are not classic parimutuel odds, they are becoming a dynamic way of handicapping the Team League season and seeing the standings in a different way, hopefully an entertaining one .. to extend that metaphor, the race, now two-thirds finished, is entering the clubhouse turn with teams jockeying for position in what may be another exciting finish

TakeTheMoneyAndRun remains alone in front and the even money favorite to win this season .. Smack, Slap, and Spank and Club Voodoo remain neck and neck in second and third, but have fallen back a little with 8:1 and 9:1 odds to win, respectively .. Cube Sluts, still holding in fourth place and within striking distance of a fourth consecutive championship, have gained a little ground, improving to 11:1 odds to win .. Virtual Addicts have moved up strongly over the weekend into contention now in fifth with 12:1 odds to win

also moving up and next back in sixth is schigstogsedat, improving to 32:1 odds, just ahead of Gno Mo Soup at 34:1 .. in eighth and ninth, gaining a little ground but still well back, are Last Minute and No Nuts A**hole, 56:1 and 80:1, respectively .. others remain mired in the pack or losing ground with the exception of UN Trio making a nice move from deep in the pack 

there are several important rubber matches to decide the winner of team points now shaping up .. these will no doubt have an important influence on final team standings .. even teams out of the running may pull off upsets which can decide the season .. so, as we all begin playing matches, let us know in shouts so we can watch and share in the excitement

boomslang's comments really helped find a subtle error in earlier versions of the model .. it would be most helpful if anyone sees any other oddities in the way your team is moving in the pack since the last post .. also,  questions or comments on the way these predictions are expressed are most welcome

with 340 matches played (current as of this post) we are two-thirds of the way finished with the season .. the simulation for 12,000 iterations or seasons provides the following results

[table=]
Pre-Season Team Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   50.3%,   1:1,   21.1%,   4:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   11.1%,   8:1,   11.6%,   8:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   9.6%,   9:1,   13.6%,   6:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   8.2%,   11:1,   9.6%,   9:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   7.4%,   12:1,   10.1%,   9:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   3.1%,   32:1,   4.2%,   23:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   2.8%,   34:1,   5.0%,   19:1
10,   Last Minute,   2.4%,   41:1,   4.6%,   21:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.8%,   56:1,   4.8%,   20:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   1.2%,   80:1,   3.6%,   27:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.7%,   135:1,   7.9%,   12:1
8,   Gammonizers,   0.7%,   142:1,   2.1%,   47:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.6%,   178:1,   1.3%,   77:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1332:1,   0.3%,   391:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   6000:1,   0.3%,   372:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   11746:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on October 30, 2007, 12:37:34 PM
on seeing the ubiquitous yellow bar rise toward the top of the standings yesterday, i became curious what that meant in the perspective of these predictions .. the result was equally dramatic .. the Cube Sluts have indeed made a strong move .. two wins at match point yesterday by Backwoods, one against scuba on Club Voodoo, have propelled the Cube Sluts into a strong second place at 5:1 odds to win .. Club Voodoo dropped from third yesterday at 9:1 to sixth place at 26:1 passed by Last Minute, now in fifth, at 23:1 .. Virtual Addicts moved into third by a tiny margin over Smack, Slap, and Spank, both at 12:1

bardancer, my Smack, Slap, and Spank teammate, won yesterday against michaelsw on Gammonizers in our team's only posted match .. it was not for match point .. ironically, even with his win our odds to win are down from 8:1 to 12:1 .. why?

already in a slump with miserable dice and worse luck, the first answer i came up with is that of our ten remaining undecided matches i'm sitting on matches for team point in four of them .. actually, the answer is more likely the relative importance of the two match point wins by Backwoods .. a finished match point win is obviously worth far more than a win in a match yet to be decided for team points - two team point wins worth even more .. the model is just reflecting that

diane, the Cube Sluts leading lady, and i have a very important match point coming up soon which we both need to win .. with TakeTheMoneyAndRun still sitting securely in the lead at 1:1, it's beginning to look as if contenders knocking off one another may serve to strengthen their chances of winning .. unless one team begins to break cleanly from the pack with a few key match point wins or they stumble, TakeTheMoneyAndRun may be hard to catch

with 349 matches played (current as of this post), the results of this mornings 11,000 iteration simulation run provide these new predictions

[table=]
Pre-Season Team Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   48.3%,   1:1,   20.9%,   4:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   16.3%,   5:1,   14.5%,   6:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   8.0%,   12:1,   10.4%,   9:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   7.6%,   12:1,   9.0%,   10:1
10,   Last Minute,   4.1%,   23:1,   6.3%,   15:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   3.7%,   26:1,   10.9%,   8:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   3.2%,   30:1,   4.1%,   24:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   2.8%,   34:1,   5.9%,   16:1
8,   Gammonizers,   2.8%,   34:1,   4.6%,   21:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.5%,   66:1,   3.7%,   26:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   0.8%,   130:1,   2.1%,   48:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.5%,   219:1,   6.8%,   14:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.3%,   392:1,   0.6%,   171:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1374:1,   0.3%,   381:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   11000:1,   0.1%,   689:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on October 31, 2007, 09:55:10 AM
it's Haloween and the teams are shuffling like kids in line for candy as players complete deciding rubber matches for team points .. BushSucks on the leading team TakeTheMoneyAndRun was defeated by Slipshod on No Nuts A**hole .. for the first time since taking the even money lead last week, odds to win for TakeTheMoneyAndRun drop to 3:2 or about 41% chance to win (down from about 50%) .. with the win, No Nuts A**hole improves to 32:1 as they move up to eighth place

after the strong move yesterday by Cube Sluts, Wallenstein on three.DOG.night defeated diane and Cube Sluts dropped back to third place with odds of 9:1 to win .. three.DOG.night remains well back

schigstogsedat was involved in three rubber matches for team points - losing two and winning one .. Gussssss on UN Trio defeated Schigolch .. Schigolch then defeated bardancer on Smack, Slap, Spank .. souptree on Gno Mo Soup defeated stog for schigstogsedat's second team point loss .. schigstogsedat drops back to tenth at 37:1 odds .. Gno Mo Soup remains in eleventh place at 57:1 .. Smack, Slap, Spank falls back to sixth at 20:1 while UN Trio remains well back

as odds to win begin changing for many teams and as teams begin to cluster and change positions within the first ten places, this could be an early indicator that anybody can still win or perhaps contending teams are beginning to knock one another off .. regardless, TakeTheMoneyAndRun still is in a strong position with six team point matches yet to be decided against Gammonizers, schigstogsedat, Gno Mo Soup, Lipstick & Testosterone, Last Orders, and MOJO .. it will likely take at least three upsets for another team to catch them

with 70% of the season's matches now completed at 358 matches played (current with this post), the results of a 8,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions
   
[table=]
Pre-Season Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   40.6%,   3:2,   19.4%,   4:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   12.4%,   7:1,   11.1%,   8:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   10.2%,   9:1,   10.9%,   8:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   7.5%,   12:1,   12.2%,   7:1
10,   Last Minute,   6.2%,   15:1,   7.0%,   13:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   4.8%,   20:1,   6.1%,   15:1
8,   Gammonizers,   4.7%,   20:1,   5.3%,   18:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   3.8%,   25:1,   5.7%,   16:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   3.1%,   32:1,   6.5%,   14:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   2.6%,   37:1,   3.3%,   29:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   1.7%,   57:1,   2.8%,   34:1
17,   white punks on dope,   1.5%,   67:1,   8.1%,   11:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.6%,   156:1,   0.8%,   124:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.1%,   1142:1,   0.5%,   196:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1333:1,   0.2%,   507:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   10334:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 01, 2007, 06:36:06 AM
the race is tightening  .. Virtual Addicts and Club Voodoo move up while TakeTheMoneyAndRun remains idle .. Cube Sluts hold at 9:1 and Slap, Smack, and Spank fades while Gammonizers, No Nuts A**hole, and Last Minute move to within striking distance

Virtual Addicts has 7 team point matches yet to be decided; TakeTheMoneyAndRun and Cube Sluts  6 each; Club Voodoo has only 3 team points undecided against Lipstick & Testosterone, Last, But Not Least, and two dicks and a chick

if Club Voodoo can close the season winning the team points in their 3 remaining team point matches, their 42 team point total will be the one to beat ... other top contenders would be forced to win all or lose no more than one remaining team point match to equal that 42

from scans of a few hundred seasons winning totals, a team point total of 44-46 occurs in about 60% of the seasons and seldom occurs for more than one team .. no occurance of 48 or more team points has been observed .. seasons with a maximum of 42 and fewer team points almost always result in match points being the tie-breaker .. so, every match will be important

Yesterday's Match Results:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. Gusssss (UN Trio)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
* Slipshod (No Nuts A**hole) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* elmicho (Slap, Smack, and Spank) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* zyxtcba (No Nuts A**hole) def. sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank)
* diane (Cube Sluts) def. sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank)
   erdbeere (Last Orders) def. sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank)
   sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
   cassandra (Last, But Not Least) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
   chopos (UN Trio) def. sedat (schigstogsedat)
   blotsalot (Last Orders) def. Gussssss (UN Trio)
   Wallenstein (three.DOG.night) def. Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)

with 372 matches played 72.5% of season is completed .. the results of a 10,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions


[table=]
Pre-Season Rank,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   28,   25,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   39.2%,   3:2,   19.1%,   4:1
2,   33,   29,   Club Voodoo,   13.6%,   6:1,   16.9%,   5:1
7,   25,   22,   Virtual Addicts,   11.4%,   8:1,   10.8%,   8:1
3,   28,   26,   Cube Sluts,   10.0%,   9:1,   10.3%,   9:1
8,   19,   23,   Gammonizers,   6.6%,   14:1,   6.8%,   14:1
9,   32,   24,   No Nuts A**hole,   6.0%,   16:1,   11.0%,   8:1
10,   16,   22,   Last Minute,   5.6%,   17:1,   6.4%,   15:1
12,   16,   18,   Gno Mo Soup,   2.1%,   46:1,   2.9%,   34:1
11,   19,   17,   schigstogsedat,   1.9%,   52:1,   2.8%,   34:1
1,   24,   22,   Smack Slap and Spank,   1.8%,   55:1,   3.4%,   28:1
17,   36,   25,   white punks on dope,   0.9%,   115:1,   7.1%,   13:1
6,   11,   11,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   226:1,   0.7%,   134:1
4,   21,   20,   Ottoman's Empire,   0.3%,   285:1,   1.3%,   76:1
16,   12,   14,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   769:1,   0.3%,   338:1,
14,   25,   21,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   2146:1
15,   11,   14,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   38649:1
13,   22,   15,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   19,   18,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   11,   6,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 03, 2007, 03:27:36 PM
Approaching the 3/4-pole, with 74.3% of the season completed and according to the simulation model, it appears the race is coming down to the top six teams: TakeTheMoneyAndRun at 2:1, Club Voodoo 5:1, Virtual Addicts 6:1, Cube Sluts 7:1, Last Minute 12:1, and Gammonizers at 13:1 .. but other factors are now coming into play

TakeTheMoneyAndRun, playing only 1 match over the past few days, remains at the top of the pack, but their lead continues to shrink .. the simulation still shows TakeTheMoneyAndRun winning in slightly over one-third of the simulated seasons, but that leaves two-thirds of the seasons with another team winning .. so, the race is clearly tightening and becoming hard to call

the big unknown factor beginning to enter into the equation is one the simulation model cannot calculate ... as the end of season is approaching, reality tells us that not all matches will be completed .. the model assumes all matches are played and completed .. this could be a big difference .. past history of team league shows this has never happened

for example, last season only 7 of the 42 players completed 100% of their matches .. most incomplete matches had nothing to do with determining the season winner, but in a close race all are important .. so, as these predictions continue, actual Team Point and Match Point totals calculated from matches finished become very important - much more important than the simulated results .. remember, the models predictions are for maximum possible Team Points, assuming all matches are played .. actual totals of completed matches will, in the end, determine the winner .. since the season is scheduled to end on November 15th, less than two weeks remain to finish matches

here is the order by Team and Match point totals with the models odds included for the most recent run (also listed below) .. note the significant difference .. despite being a 72:1 longshot, if the season were to end today, White punks on dope is in the barn with 36 Team points and would be the winner .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun, currently in fifth place, needs three more Team point match wins to pass them

i've dropped odds to make the playoffs and pre-season team rank in the tables below .. i've added an interesting new column, Team Points Undecided .. it is the number of team matches where team points have not yet been decided multiplied times three .. thus, adding the first two columns yields the maximum number of team points a team can score for the season .. 46 is the maximum number of team points in a winning season predicted by the model with 42 the minimum winning total in the 10,000+ seasons simulated .. again, the model assumes completion of all matches .. remember, ties in team points are decided by total match points .. theoretically, Lipstick & Testosterone could achieve 50 Team Points by winning all 13 of their remaining undecided team point matches, but in the 10,000+ season simulation, it never happened

[table=]
Team Points Undecided,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
6,   36,   26,   white punks on dope,   1.4%,   72:1
9,   33,   29,   Club Voodoo,   15.7%,   5:1
9,   33,   24,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.5%,   66:1
15,   31,   27,   Cube Sluts,   12.9%,   7:1
18,   28,   25,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   34.1%,    2:1
18,   28,   23,   Virtual Addicts,   14.4%,   6:1
12,   28,   23,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0
18,   24,   22,   Smack Slap and Spank,   1.6%,   63:1
12,   22,   15,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0
21,   21,   20,   Ottoman's Empire,   0.5%,   212:1
24,   20,   17,   schigstogsedat,   1.0%,   100:1
27,   19,   23,   Last Minute,   7.6%,   12:1
27,   19,   23,   Gammonizers,   7.3%,   13:1
21,   19,   18,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0
30,   16,   18,   Gno Mo Soup,   1.5%,   66:1
12,   16,   7,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0
27,   15,   15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0
33,   13,   15,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   714:1
39,   11,   11,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   232:1
[/table]


Thursday and Friday's Match Results:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

* mradica (C) (Virtual Addicts) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)
   blotsalot (Last Orders) def. Pernot_Richard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
* Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. onion (MOJO)
   Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. souptree (Gno Mo Soup)
   inim (white punks on dope) def. Gussssss (UN Trio)
* Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)
* manxcat (MOJO) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
* Backwoods (Cube Sluts) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* Zorba (Last Minute) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)

# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)

with 381 matches played 74.3% of the season is completed .. the results of a 10,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions at 11/2/2007 9:06am

[table=]
Team Points Undecided,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
18,   28,   25,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   34.1%,   2:1
9,   33,   29,   Club Voodoo,   15.7%,   5:1
18,   28,   23,   Virtual Addicts,   14.4%,   6:1
15,   31,   27,   Cube Sluts,   12.9%,   7:1
27,   19,   23,   Last Minute,   7.6%,   12:1
27,   19,   23,   Gammonizers,   7.3%,   13:1,
18,   24,   22,   Smack Slap and Spank,   1.6%,   63:1
9,   33,   24,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.5%,   66:1
30,   16,   18,   Gno Mo Soup,   1.5%,   66:1
6,   36,   26,   white punks on dope,   1.4%,   72:1
24,   20,   17,   schigstogsedat,   1.0%,   100:1
21,   21,   20,   Ottoman's Empire,   0.5%,   212:1
39,   11,   11,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   232:1
33,   13,   15,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   714:1
12,   28,   23,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0
21,   19,   18,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0
27,   15,   15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0
12,   22,   15,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0
12,   16,   7,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0
[/table]
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 04, 2007, 12:49:18 AM
as we edge past the 3/4-post, the race is on .. Club Voodoo has taken away the odds lead held all week by TakeTheMoneyAndRun ..  Club Voodoo and TakeTheMoneyAndRun, at 3:1 odds to win, and Cube Sluts at 4:1 are neck and neck rounding the turn .. while Club VooDoo is percentage points ahead in the odds calculation, its maximum team point total is 42 .. both Cube Sluts with 5 team point matches undecided and TakeTheMoneyAndRun with 6 undecided have opportunities to pull ahead with 44 or 46 team point total

vegasvic on Lipstick & Testosterone is in position to indirectly help or hurt the Cube Sluts in their remarkable quest for a four-peat .. vegasvic has two matches which can decide team points against the two top teams - BushSucks on TakeTheMoneyAndRun and scuba on Club VooDoo .. the outcome of these matches could significantly effect the final standings and the Cube Sluts fate .. should vegasvic pull off a win in both matches the indomitable Cube Sluts will break into the odds lead without playing a match

but even if vicsweeps the Cube Sluts into first place, donzeamon must get past a rubber match with DeaDice .. DeaDice also has a possible team match point match with factotum of Club VooDoo .. so, it looks as if Lipstick & Testosterone may either play the role of spoiler, decider, or propel itself into the thick of the race

with 76.0% of season completed and 390 matches played on 11/3/2007 at 7:11pm CDT

[table=]
Played,   Won,   Undecided TP Matches,   Name,   Team Points,   Match Points,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
50/54 (93%),   31/50 (62%),   2,   Club Voodoo,   36,   31,   25.5%,   3:1
43/54 (80%),   26/43 (60%),   6,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   28,   26,   22.7%,   3:1
48/54 (89%),   27/48 (56%),   5,   Cube Sluts,   31,   27,   22.2%,   4:1
40/54 (74%),   23/40 (58%),   6,   Virtual Addicts,   28,   23,   15.3%,   6:1
40/54 (74%),   23/40 (58%),   9,   Gammonizers,   19,   23,   6.5%,   14:1
39/54 (72%),   19/39 (49%),   7,   schigstogsedat,   26,   19,   2.3%,   43:1
45/54 (83%),   24/45 (53%),   3,   No Nuts A**hole,   33,   24,   1.4%,   69:1
33/54 (61%),   18/33 (55%),   10,   Gno Mo Soup,   16,   18,   1.2%,   82:1
48/54 (89%),   26/48 (54%),   2,   white punks on dope,   36,   26,   1.1%,   92:1
27/54 (50%),   12/27 (44%),   13,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   11,   12,   0.8%,   131:1
42/54 (78%),   23/42 (55%),   8,   Last Minute,   21,   23,   0.5%,   200:1
44/54 (81%),   23/44 (52%),   6,   Smack Slap and Spank,   24,   23,   0.3%,   343:1
40/54 (74%),   20/40 (50%),   7,   Ottoman's Empire,   21,   20,   0.2%,   445:1
33/54 (61%),   15/33 (45%),   11,   Last Orders,   13,   15,   0.1%,   1204:1
47/54 (87%),   23/47 (49%),   4,   UN Trio,   28,   23,   0.0%,   0
43/54 (80%),   19/43 (44%),   6,   two dicks and a chick,   22,   19,   0.0%,   0
37/54 (69%),   15/37 (41%),   8,   MOJO,   16,   15,   0.0%,   0
43/54 (80%),   16/43 (37%),   4,   three.DOG.night,   22,   16,   0.0%,   0
38/54 (70%),   7/38 (18%),   3,   Last But Not Least,   17,   7,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

Saturday's Match Results:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

* scuba (Club VooDoo) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
  scuba (Club VooDoo) def. BushSucks (TakeTHeMoneyAndRun)
  BushSucks (TakeTHeMoneyAndRun) def. wyzzz (two dicks and a chick)
  DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterrone) def. Pernot_Richard (TakeTHeMoneyAndRun)
* rollingfool (two dicks and a chick) def. cis (Last Minute)
  sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. Wallenstein (three.DOG.night)
  Wallenstein (three.DOG.night) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)

# sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
 
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 04, 2007, 03:47:11 AM
Individual Stats

with 76.0% of season completed or 390 matches played .. congrats to resh_lakish (10-8) and stog (8-10) for becoming the first players to complete all their matches


Top 25 All Positions
-------------------


[table=]         
Rank, Position, Player, Team, Won, Lost
1,   2,   scuba,   Club Voodoo,   13,   3
2,   3,   dorbel,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   13,   4
3,   3,   krautlover,   Gammonizers,   13,   4
4,   1,   mradica,   Virtual Addicts,   11,   5
5,   2,   Zorba,   Last Minute,   11,   5
6,   3,   gumpi,   Club Voodoo,   11,   6
7,   3,   Kari_Grandi,   UN Trio,   11,   6
8,   1,   bardancer,   Smack Slap and Spank,   10,   5
9,   1,   rollingfool,   two dicks and a chick,   10,   6
10,   2,   Backwoods,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7
11,   2,   Slipshod,   No Nuts A**hole,   10,   7
12,   3,   diane,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7
13,   3,   resh_lakish,   white punks on dope,   10,   8
14,   2,   kristoffer,   Virtual Addicts,   9,   2
15,   3,   zyxtcba,   No Nuts A**hole,   9,   6,
16,   2,   Mort,   Gno Mo Soup,   9,   7
17,   1,   inim,   white punks on dope,   9,   8
18,   2,   elmicho,   Smack Slap and Spank,   9,   8
19,   1,   otto,   Ottoman's Empire,   8,   5
20,   1,   blotsalot,   Last Orders,   8,   5
21,   1,   Schigolch,   schigstogsedat,   8,   6
22,   1,   Pernot_Ricard,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   8,   8
23,   3,   onion,   MOJO,   8,   8
24,   3,   Wallenstein,   three.DOG.night,   8,   8
25,   3,   stog,   schigstogsedat,   8,   10
[/table]

Position 1 - 9 point matches
---------------------------


[table=]         
Player, Team,      Won,   Lost
mradica,   Virtual Addicts,   11,   5
bardancer,   Smack Slap and Spank,   10,   5
rollingfool,   two dicks and a chick,   10,   6
inim,   white punks on dope,   9,   8
otto,   Ottoman's Empire,   8,   5,
blotsalot,   Last Orders,   8,   5
Schigolch,   schigstogsedat,   8,   6
Pernot_Ricard,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   8,   8
donzaemon,   Cube Sluts,   7,   7
factotum,   Club Voodoo,   7,   10
cis,   Last Minute,   6,   4
michaelsw,   Gammonizers,   5,   6
gaspar,   No Nuts A**hole,   5,   8
Gusssss,   UN Trio,   5,   8
DeaDice,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   4,   4
don,   three.DOG.night,   4,   10
gnomysTwo,   Gno Mo Soup,   3,   2
manxcat,   MOJO,   3,   6
Ramses,   Last But Not Least,   1,   9
[/table]
         

Position 2 - 7 point matches
---------------------------


[table=]         
Player, Team,      Won,   Lost
scuba,   Club Voodoo,   13,   3
Zorba,   Last Minute,   11,   5
Backwoods,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7
Slipshod,   No Nuts A**hole,   10,   7
kristoffer,   Virtual Addicts,   9,   2
Mort,   Gno Mo Soup,   9,   7
elmicho,   Smack Slap and Spank,   9,   8
sarah,   white punks on dope,   7,   6
chopos,   UN Trio,   7,   10
vegasvic,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   5,   3
BushSucks,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   5,   5
samirah,   Gammonizers,   5,   7
jimbok,   Ottoman's Empire,   5,   8
padski,   Last Orders,   4,   3
johnwayne,   MOJO,   4,   8
houtx,   three.DOG.night,   4,   9
sedat,   schigstogsedat,   3,   4
wyzzz,   two dicks and a chick,   3,   11
cassandra,   Last But Not Least,   2,   12
[/table]
         
         
Position 3 - 5 point matches
---------------------------


[table=]         
Player, Team,      Won,   Lost
dorbel,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   13,   4
krautlover,   Gammonizers,   13,   4
gumpi,   Club Voodoo,   11,   6
Kari_Grandi,   UN Trio,   11,   6
diane,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7,
resh_lakish,   white punks on dope,   10,   8
zyxtcba,   No Nuts A**hole,   9,   6
onion,   MOJO,   8,   8,
Wallenstein,   three.DOG.night,   8,   8
stog,   schigstogsedat,   8,   10
taylor,   Ottoman's Empire,   7,   7
souptree,   Gno Mo Soup,   6,   6,
Eve,   two dicks and a chick,   6,   8
boomslang,   Last Minute,   6,   10
sixty_something,   Smack Slap and Spank,   5,   8
jasonj,   Last But Not Least,   4,   10
wordman,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   3,   8
Tomawaky,   Virtual Addicts,   3,   10
erdbeere,   Last Orders,   3,   10
[/table]
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 04, 2007, 03:41:21 PM
here's the Sunday Morning line .. Club Voodoo has a double match point for team points with Lipstick & Testosterone .. a win there will put them in the barn with 42 team points which is good enough to win in almost 50% of the seasons, according to the simulation

TakeTheMoneyAndRun and Cube Sluts have been idle for the past few days but big matches, possibly today are on the horizon .. according to the simulation, a mimimum of 42 team points will be required to win the season .. totals of 44 and 46 are possible .. regardless, results of all matches will be very important in determining ties in team point totals

with 77% of the season completed at 395 matches played, the latest simulation run for 8,000 iterations or seasons predicts:

[table=]
Undecided TP Matches,   Team Name,   Team Points,   Match Points,   % to win,    Odds to Win
1,   Club Voodoo,   39,   32,   40.5%,   3:2
6,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   28,   26,   20.5%,   4:1
5,   Cube Sluts,   31,   27,   20.4%,   4:1
9,   Gammonizers,   19,   23,   6.0%,   16:1
5,   Virtual Addicts,   29,   23,   5.5%,   17:1
5,   schigstogsedat,   29,   20,   3.1%,   31:1
10,   Gno Mo Soup,   16,   18,   1.1%,   90:1
13,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   11,   12,   0.8%,   122:1
3,   No Nuts A**hole,   33,   24,   0.8%,   126:1
5,   Smack Slap and Spank,   27,   25,   0.6%,   159:1
6,   Last Minute,   24,   24,   0.5%,   185:1
10,   Last Orders,   13,   15,   0.1%,   1333:1
1,   white punks on dope,   37,   26,   0.0%,   0
5,   Ottoman's Empire,   22,   20,   0.0%,   0
4,   UN Trio,   28,   23,   0.0%,   0,
5,   two dicks and a chick,   23,   19,   0.0%,   0
8,   MOJO,   16,   15,   0.0%,   0
4,   three.DOG.night,   22,   16,   0.0%,   0
3,   Last But Not Least,   17,   7,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

Morning Matches included:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

  sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
* sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. Tomwacky (Virtual Addicts)
* cis (Last Minute) def. inim (white punks on dope)
* gumpi (Club Voodoo) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
#*sedat(schigstogsedat) def. jimbok taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
# sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)

Late Result (not included):

* Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. Eve Eve (two dicks and a chick)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 05, 2007, 10:19:52 AM
approaching 80% of the season completed at 405 matches played, Club Voodoo is securely "in the barn" with the standard to meet, 42 Team Points and 33 Match Points .. for some time now, i've wondered why their total at only 42 team points is such a dominant one .. i added a new feature to the model that highlights why quite well .. like all complex insights, it's so simple it's obvious - just a little hard to see at first, at least it was for me

here are the new totals and odds .. see for yourself

[table=]
Team Name,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Undecided TP,   Undecided MP,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
Club Voodoo,   42,   33,   0,   2,   51.0%,   1:1
Cube Sluts,   31,   27,   15,   6,   18.2%,   5:1
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   28,   26,   18,   11,   16.6%,   5:1
Virtual Addicts,   32,   25,   12,   11,   6.6%,   14:1
Gammonizers,   19,   23,   27,   14,   4.2%,   23:1
schigstogsedat,   29,   20,   15,   14,   2.2%,   45:1
Gno Mo Soup,   16,   18,   30,   21,   0.8%,   129:1,
Lipstick & Testosterone,   16,   15,   30,   21,   0.2%,   461:1
Last Minute,   24,   24,   18,   11,   0.2%,   563:1
Last Orders,   14,   15,   30,   20,   0.0%,   3386:1
No Nuts A**hole,   33,   24,   9,   8,   0.0%,   0
white punks on dope,   37,   28,   3,   3,   0.0%,   0
Smack Slap and Spank,   28,   25,   12,   7,   0.0%,   0
UN Trio,   31,   24,   9,   6,   0.0%,   0
Ottoman's Empire,   25,   21,   15,   10,   0.0%,   0
two dicks and a chick,   24,   19,   12,   8,   0.0%,   0
MOJO,   16,   15,   24,   17,   0.0%,   0
three.DOG.night,   22,   16,   12,   11,   0.0%,   0
Last But Not Least,   17,   7,   9,   15,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

Club Voodoo's  63% winning percentage is the highest of all teams .. thus, they have a very high Match Point total - highest at present and highest potential .. this forces all contenders to make 42 points and come in with a higher winning percentage or make more than 42 Team Points .. as neither of these is an easy task,  Club Voodoo has become the even money favorite in a race previously dominated by TakeTheMoneyAndRun .. like i said, the insight is simple, but not easy to see in the swirl of numbers i've displayed before or in the standings at soup's website

these undecided totals may be the missing link to understanding the standings at a glance that i've been seeking all along .. while the horse race metaphor of odds, clubhouse turns, neck-and-neck, etc. is interesting, colorful, and the one i used in developing the simulation model for "seeing" the season unfold .. it is neither simple nor direct

by simply adding Team Points and Match Points with their undecided counterparts, we can easily compute the maximum team and match points possible for each team .. this enables us to tell at a glance who the contenders are and to a degree why .. however, there are subtleties in the way team matches unfold that can't be seen directly with these maximums alone or even with careful analysis .. that's where the simulation approach is uniquely useful .. but, IMHO, just the maximums go a long way toward making the standings more meaningful - even from day one of any season when every one starts with the same potential of 54 and 54 for a 19 team season

so, souptree, how about adding another pair of numbers called "Undecided" that is displayed like "Won" and "Played" .. better still, include the maximums in the Team and Match Point Totals where it belongs .. maybe it could look like this:

[table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max  , Match Points/Max  , % to Win   , Odds to Win
Gno Mo Soup, 16 / 46,18 / 39,0.8%,129:1
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 28 / 46,26 / 37,16.6%,5:1
Gammonizers, 19 / 46,23 / 37,4.2%,23:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 16 / 46,15 / 36,0.2%,461:1
Cube Sluts, 31 / 46,27 / 33,18.2%,5:1
Virtual Addicts, 32 / 44,25 / 36,6.6%,14:1
Last Orders, 14 / 44,15 / 35,0.0%,3386:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,2.2%,45:1
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,51.0%,1:1
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,563:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 28 / 40,25 / 32,0.0%,0
MOJO, 16 / 40,15 / 32,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,21 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 31 / 40,24 / 30,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 24 / 36,19 / 27,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 22 / 34,16 / 27,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 17 / 26,7 / 22,0.0%,0
[/table]

one final observation becomes interesting here, too .. with one more win in their two remaining matches, Club Voodoo forces Cube Sluts to make 44 or more team points in order to win the season .. at 42/34 this exceeds Cube Sluts maximum match point total

personally, i can think of at least 8 teams that might like the way all this looks .. not to mention play their hearts out until the last day of the season in the race for the finish .. i only wish Smack, Slap, and Spank were one of them

c'est la vie, but wait 'til next year .. we'll Smack, Slap, and Spank you all then like we did in the early simulations :thumbsup2:

Sunday Afternoon Matches:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

  krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
* Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. Eve Eve (two dicks and a chick)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone)
   wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. zyxtcba (No Nuts A**hole)
* wordman ((Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
   mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
   sarah (white punks on dope) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
   sarah (white punks on dope) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* otto (Ottoman's Empire)  def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
#*sedat(schigstogsedat) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
# sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
 
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 06, 2007, 12:17:40 PM
Hope springs eternal in the human breast ...
-Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man, 1733 


upsets by manxcat (MOJO) over Pernot_Ricard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) and DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) over donzaemon (Cube Sluts) shake up the leader board .. Club Voodoo's odds lead is extended and the simulation run has them winning in two-thirds of the seasons .. the Gammonizers win two leaping into second place at 6:1 odds as krautlover beats me and michaelsw beats blotsalot while Virtual Addicts loses three falling well back

the Cube Sluts, Last Minute, and Virtual Addicts must now sweep their remaining matches for team points to stay in the race for first place .. the other contending teams must lose no more than one or two of their remaining team point matches .. FIBS Team League season 4 is coming down to the wire

with 81.3% of the season completed and 417 matches played, the % and odds to win calculations are based on a simulation run of 11,000 iterations or seasons

[table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max, Match Points/Max, % to Win, Odds to Win
Gno Mo Soup, 19 / 46,20 / 39,1.6%,61:1
Gammonizers, 22 / 46,25 / 37,14.0%,6:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 19 / 46,17 / 35,0.4%,224:1
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 29 / 44,26 / 36,8.7%,10:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,2.1%,46:1
Cube Sluts, 32 / 44,27 / 32,5.9%,16:1
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,66.9%,1:2
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,549:1
Virtual Addicts, 33 / 42,25 / 33,0.0%,2201:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
MOJO, 19 / 40,16 / 32,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,21 / 31,0.0%,0
Last Orders, 16 / 40,15 / 31,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 34 / 40,25 / 30,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 29 / 38,26 / 31,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 24 / 36,19 / 27,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 25 / 34,17 / 27,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 17 / 26,9 / 21,0.0%,0
[/table]

Monday's Matches:
* manxcat (MOJO) def. Pernot_Ricard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
* DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
   gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
* houtx (three.DOG.night) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
   jasonj (Last, But Not Least) def. Tomawaky ((Virtual Addicts)
* chopos (UN Trio) def. padski (Last Orders)
* gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
* krautlover (Gammonizers) def. sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
   sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. jasonj (Last, But Not Least)
   michaelsw (Gammonizers) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
   cassandra (Last, But Not Least) def. padski (Last Orders)

--- confirmed matches
   wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
* sedat(schigstogsedat) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)

--- posted, not confirmed
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)

* for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 07, 2007, 09:15:50 AM
Everything comes too late for those who only wait.
Elbert Green Hubbard (1856–1915)
American writer, publisher, artist, and philosopher
tempus fugit

only 4 TL matches were played yesterday, but Club Voodoo extended its lead as contenders stumbled and stalled .. the Gammonizers lost a team points match as houtx beat samirah, but they can still lose one more of their remaining seven and stay incontention .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun split a pair of matches yesterday, but neither were for team points .. other contenders were idle

only eight days remain in the season .. whether or not contending teams can get in enough games to catch Club Voodoo is now becoming a headline making issue

with 82.1% of the season completed and 421 matches played, the % and odds to win calculations are based on a simulation run of 6,000 iterations or seasons .. the table format below is the one i think i like best for displaying TL standings at a glance .. while the rank is determined by the simulation model, all the basics are stiill easy to read and interpret


[table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max, Match Points/Max, % to Win, Odds to Win
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,78.1%,1:4
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 29 / 44,27 / 35,7.0%,13:1
Cube Sluts, 32 / 44,27 / 32,6.7%,14:1
Gammonizers, 23 / 44,25 / 36,3.9%,25:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,1.7%,56:1
Gno Mo Soup, 19 / 46,20 / 39,1.7%,57:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 19 / 46,17 / 35,0.6%,170:1
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,499:1
Virtual Addicts, 33 / 42,25 / 33,0.0%,1999:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 34 / 40,25 / 30,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 29 / 38,26 / 31,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,21 / 31,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 28 / 34,18 / 27,0.0%,0
MOJO, 19 / 40,17 / 32,0.0%,0
Last Orders, 17 / 38,15 / 30,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 24 / 36,19 / 27,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 20 / 26,10 / 20,0.0%,0
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:
*  houtx (three.DOG.night) def. samirah (Gammonizers)
*  Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
   johnwayne (MOJO) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
   dorbel (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. jasonj (Last, But Not Least)

--- posted, not confirmed
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)

* for team points

Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 08, 2007, 05:07:09 PM
the order remains the same, but the spread tightens as souptree wins two team point matches for Gno Mo Soup .. BushSucks wins two matches, one for team points, for TakeTheMoneyAndRun

with 83.8% of season completed and 430 matches played, the results of the simulation run for 14,000 iterations estimates the % to win and odds below .. other teams are ranked by order of finish using a rating based on the simulation results

[Table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max, Match Points/Max, % to Win, Odds to Win
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,74.4%,1:3
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 32 / 44,29 / 35,9.8%,9:1
Cube Sluts, 32 / 44,27 / 32,5.9%,16:1
Gammonizers, 23 / 44,25 / 36,4.1%,24:1
Gno Mo Soup, 25 / 46,22 / 39,2.7%,36:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,2.2%,45:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 22 / 46,18 / 35,0.7%,134:1
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,561:1
Virtual Addicts, 33 / 42,25 / 33,0.1%,877:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 29 / 38,26 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 34 / 40,25 / 30,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,22 / 31,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 28 / 34,18 / 25,0.0%,0
Last Orders, 21 / 36,17 / 29,0.0%,0
MOJO, 21 / 36,17 / 29,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 26 / 32,19 / 25,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 20 / 26,11 / 19,0.0%,0
[/Table]

Yesterday's Results:
* vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. johnwayne (MOJO)
* souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. onion (MOJO)
* souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
* BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. padski (Last Orders)
   BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. houtx (three.DOG.night)
* erdbeere (Last Orders) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
   erdbeere (Last Orders) def. jasonj (Last, But Not Least)
   Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def. manxcat (MOJO)
   jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. houtx (three.DOG.night)

--- earlier match confirmed
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 09, 2007, 10:57:34 AM
Accuracy of observation is the equivalent of accuracy of thinking.
Wallace Stevens (1879–1955) American poet

New Metrics

two new columns have been added to the table, Order and Pos .. Order is a weighted average order of finish (AOF) estimated from simulation results ..  Pos is simply the difference between the team AOF and the AOF of the leader .. thus, Pos is a measure in units of position in the race relative to the the leader .. using the horse race metaphor, Pos might be "seen" as lengths behind the leader .. thus, Pos becomes a measure of spacing between teams .. previously, odds and percent to win showed this, but odds and percents can become confusing and sometimes almost irrelevant

Pos is a better metric for "seeing" the race both at the lead and deep in the pack .. i mean, as bad as our season has been Smack, Slap, and Spank are now in an exciting race with white punks on dope for bragging rights and tenth place .. we have to sweep our remaining TP matches to have a chance at catching them .. i hadn't "seen" that as clearly before seeing the Pos values .. hopefully, even for teams with no chance of winning, Pos provides an insight into where a team stands relative to others regardless of the number of matches either team has remaining .. the goal is to keep the race interesting and give all teams a visual incentive to play all games

traditional team standings in many sports use games behind (GB) to "see" the relative spacing between teams .. GB is easily calculated from games won and games lost .. while similar to GB in traditional standings, Pos is not at all the same .. remember, Pos is based on AOF in all simulated seasons, in the results below that's 12,000 plus seasons or iterations .. in TL, a win and loss may have two values .. for example, every win wins a match point, but a win doesn't necessarily win team points, the primary unit in TL standings

a win/loss metric to be meaningful in TL must include both team points and match points .. for now, i'm calling it MB, not GB, where MB means matches behind.. ideally, MB, tells the teams exactly how many TP and MP are needed for each team to catch or pass the leader in first place .. to a degree, the TP/Max and MP/Max numbers already provide this, but calculating it isn't as straightforward as it seems .. so, MB is not quite ready for prime time or display here .. if interested, try it out .. if you see an obvious and good way to express MB or have a better idea, please let me know

in calculating AOF, from which Pos is derived, i use a table or matrix where the order of finish for each iteration or season in the simulation is tallied .. the table shows the number of times each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and so on .. from this matrix a weighted average is calculated where a 1st place finish in each iteration is worth 19 points (19 teams in the league); a 2nd place finish 18 points; and a last place finish 1 point .. this weighted average is AOF .. for example, Club Voodoo's AOF is 1.5 for this simulation run .. the AOF for Last, But Not Least was 19 for a Pos of 17.5 .. so, what's the point?

before i began these simulations given the unpredictable way in which each team plays and completes matches over time, it was difficult to "see" how a team is doing relative to other teams .. for example, last season the relative standings did not become clear, for me, until the last few days of the season .. confirm that for yourself by a glance back at the standings at the TL home page and a comparison with the standings below .. this series of posts from the simulation results has regularly given me new ways to express the standings .. here now is yet another

Back to the Race

Club Voodoo knocks out Virtual Addicts' winning chances as scuba defeats Last Orders' padski .. now, Virtual Addicts' maximum match point total is 33 .. Club Voodoo's 34 match points is now beyond Virtual Addicts' reach

with 84.4% of the season completed and 433   matches played, the results below are based on a simulation of 12,000 iterations or seasons


[table=]
Order,   Team Name,    TP / Max    ,     MP / Max    ,     Pos    ,   % to Win  ,   Odds to Win
1.5
,   Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
34 / 35
,
---
,
75.1%
,
1:3
4.0
,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
2.5
,
9.7%
,
9:1
4.9
,   Cube Sluts,
32 / 44
,
27 / 32
,
3.4
,
6.4%
,
15:1
6.3
,   Gammonizers,
23 / 44
,
25 / 36
,
4.8
,
3.3%
,
30:1
6.4
,   No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
4.9
,
-
,
-
6.7
,   schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 34
,
5.2
,
2.2%
,
45:1
6.9
,   Virtual Addicts,
33 / 42
,
25 / 33
,
5.4
,
-
,
-
7.7
,   Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 39
,
6.2
,
2.4%
,
41:1
8.8
,   Last Minute,
24 / 42
,
24 / 35
,
7.3
,
0.2%
,
631:1
9.0
,   white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
7.5
,
-
,
-
10.1
,   Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
8.6
,
-
,
-
10.2
,   UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
8.7
,
-
,
-
10.9
,   Lipstick & Testosterone,
22 / 46
,
18 / 35
,
9.4
,
0.8%
,
128:1
11.6
,   Ottoman's Empire,
25 / 40
,
22 / 31
,
10.1
,
-
,
-
15.6
,   three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
14.1
,
-
,
-
15.7
,   Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 28
,
14.2
,
-
,
-
16.9
,   MOJO,
21 / 36
,
17 / 28
,
15.4
,
-
,
-
17.3
,   two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
15.8
,
-
,
-
19.0
,   Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
17.5
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:

    scuba (Club Voodoo) def. padski (Last Orders)
*  padski (Last Orders) def. sarah (white punks on dope)

--- posted, not confirmed
    sedat def. johnwayne (MOJO)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 10, 2007, 03:38:31 PM
My greatest fear: repetition.
Max Frisch (1911–1991)
Swiss architect, playwright and novelist

One Down Four to Four-peat


diane, queen of the three time defending champion Cube Sluts, finished her season with a clutch win over boomslang on Last Minute .. a loss would have eliminated the Cube Sluts from their chances of winning giving Last Minute the team points and a slim theoretical chance themselves .. still facing elimination with any loss, the Cube Sluts have four remaining matches all for team points - one more against Last Minute, three others against Last Orders, schigstogsedat, and Virtual Addicts .. donzaemon faces team point matches against cis, blotsalot, and Schigolch; while Backwoods faces kristoffer .. a sweep would propel Club Sluts past Club Voodoo for a possible unprecedented and insufferable fourth Team League Championship season

Last Minute is now eliminated from contention for first place even though the model gives them a very slim chance at a win .. in over 12,000 iterations or seasons, Last Minute finished first only once by winning all ten (10) remaining matches finishing in a tie with Club Voodoo .. but since Club Voodoo beat Last Minute in their heads up match during the season, they would lose the tie breaking decision

the remaining teams must now win at least 43 team points to pass Club Voodoo or win at least 34 match points should they finish with 42 team points .. in the barn with 42 team points and 34 match points, Club Voodoo still dominates the race winning in more than 70% of the simulated seasons

MB/mr

in the last post i introduced the MB metric, matches behind .. below is a first attempt at expressing it as MB/mr for matches behind the leader and matches remaining .. these are manual estimates for now, but it looks like a good way to express it .. considering the MB concept for every team, it became apparent matches remaining is also a component that may need to be displayed .. MB is an important metric primarily for teams still in the race, but may be useful for other teams as well .. by definition, MB must be equal or less than mr for any team still contending

for some teams MB is equal to mr, yet the team has been eliminated from contention for winning .. for other eliminated teams, MB is less than mr .. the latter case is obvious .. if a team is 2 team point matches behind, but has no team point matches remaining, it cannot catch or pass the leading team .. i found it worth displaying here for completeness, but other uses for this metric may exist for races back in the pack .. the former case deserves a comment .. for example, Virtual Addicts, with MB/mr of 3/3 .. Virtual Addicts is eliminated from contention for first place because even if they win all remaining matches and achieve 42 team points their maximum match point total, 33, would be less than the 34 match points already attained by the leaders, Club Voodoo .. in order to make these cases more visually apparent, when a team is still in contention, the MB/mr value is displayed in boldface .. when out of contention, the Mb/mr value is italicized

one other change in metrics is also introduced below .. the Pos metric has been renamed to Back and shifted to the left in the table adjacent to the Order column from which it is derived .. remember, Order is the average order of finish calculated as a weighted average of each teams order of finish from all simulation runs .. Back is, IMO, a simpler word for expressing the concept of distance behind the leader .. this remains consistent with the horse race metaphor previously discussed .. it is after all how far "back" in the race the standings in this "order" are intended to more accurately reflect .. ideally, this may be useful from day one in future seasons

looking at the MB/mr metric below, it should become more obvious why Club Voodoo has become the dominant favorite to win this season .. of the six remaining teams in contention to win, 4 must win all remaining team point matches .. the other two can lose no more than one team point match to remain in contention

with 84.8% of the season completed and 435 matches played, the table below is based on a simulation of over 12,000 iterations or seasons .. on another day with only two matches played neither for team points, 78 matches remain unplayed

[table=]
Order,  Back,   Team Name,    TP/Max    ,     MP/Max    ,     MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,   Odds
1.6
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
34 / 35
,
---
,
71.9%
,
2:5
4.0
,
2.4
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
8.9%
,
10:1
4.3
,
2.7
,  Cube Sluts,
32 / 44
,
28 / 32
,
4/4
,
10.1%
,
9:1
6.3
,
4.7
,  Gammonizers,
23 / 44
,
25 / 36
,
7/7
,
4.0%
,
24:1
6.4
,
4.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
33 / 42
,
25 / 33
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.3
,  schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 33
,
5/5
,
1.9%
,
51:1
7.7
,
6.1
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 39
,
6/7
,
2.4%
,
41:1
8.9
,
7.3
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
7.8
,  Last Minute,
24 / 42
,
24 / 34
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.5
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.5
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
10.7
,
9.1
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
22 / 46
,
19 / 35
,
7/8
,
0.7%
,
133:1
11.6
,
10.0
,  Ottoman's Empire,
25 / 40
,
22 / 31
,
6/5
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.0
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.0
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 28
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.3
,  MOJO,
21 / 36
,
17 / 28
,
7/5
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.7
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.4
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]



Yesterday's Results:

   diane (Cube Sluts) def. boomslang (Last Minute)
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sedat (schigstogsedat)

--- Earlier match confirmed
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. johnwayne (MOJO)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 11, 2007, 09:26:25 AM
I coulda been a contender.
Terry Mallory in the movie "On the Waterfront" (1954)
played by Marlon Brando (1924-2004)
Academy Award-winning American actor
Another Contender Bites the Dust

jimbok on Ottoman's Empire defeats samirah on Gammonizers .. the loss eliminates Gammonizers from contention for the win .. even a sweep of all their ten remaining matches can yield no more than a tie for first with Club Voodoo .. this did not occur even once in the recent simulation of over 12,000 seasons .. further, even if it had, Gammonizers lost their match against Club Voodoo .. thus, once again, the tie break decision would go to Club Voodoo

five teams remain in contention for over taking Club Voodoo .. defending champion Cube Sluts with four remaining matches, all for team points, is the closest to taking the lead but is also the closest to elimination with any loss .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun, the first team to break away with a lead as the pack entered the clubhouse turn, also has four must win team point matches remaining, schigstogsedat has five

two teams have a little more flexibility in that they can lose one of their remaining team point matches, but not more than one .. Gno Mo Soup has seven team point matches remaining, Lipstick & Testosterone eight .. should either of these teams sweep their 46 team point total would surpass that of the three other contenders

Club Voodoo remains the big favorite, according to the simulation results below .. with factotum's win yesterday over DeaDice, the lipstick and testosterone accelerant of L& T, Club Voodoo became the first team to finish all team league matches and remain the team with the highest wining percentage at 35/54 (65%) - yet another kuddo for factotum, scuba, and gumpi

MB/mr

introduced in the last post, MB/mr (matches behind/matches remaining) provides a quick way to see how many team point matches must be won in order for a contending team to catch or pass the leader .. i've now automated the MB/mr calculation and it seems to be working .. boldfaced pairs indicate a team is still in contention .. italicized pairs are displayed for teams out of contention for first place

for pride matches back in the pack, MB/mr is also useful .. for example, there is a tight race for finishing in the top ten in this field of 19 teams where five teams are clustered at about 8 "back" .. mr becomes the more important metric in this contest and provides at a glance how many matches remaining each team has to play

The Race Enters the Stretch Run

with 85.6% of the season completed and 439 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 12,000 iterations or seasons is below

[table=]
Order,  Back,   Team Name,     TP/Max    ,     MP/Max    ,     MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,   Odds
1.4
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
35 / 35
,
---
,
75.6%
,
1:3
3.8
,
2.4
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
9.5%
,
9:1
4.0
,
2.6
,  Cube Sluts,
32 / 44
,
28 / 32
,
4/4
,
10.6%
,
8:1
6.2
,
4.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.6
,
5.2
,  Virtual Addicts,
33 / 42
,
25 / 33
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.8
,
5.4
,  schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 33
,
5/5
,
2.1%
,
46:1
7.6
,
6.2
,  Gammonizers,
24 / 42
,
25 / 35
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
8.5
,
7.1
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 38
,
6/7
,
0.9%
,
110:1
8.8
,
7.4
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
8.0
,  Last Minute,
24 / 42
,
24 / 34
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
9.6
,
8.2
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.7
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.7
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
22 / 46
,
20 / 34
,
7/8
,
1.2%
,
82:1
10.1
,
8.7
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.2
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.4
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.5
,  MOJO,
21 / 36
,
17 / 28
,
7/5
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.6
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:

   factotum (Club Voodoo) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
   wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. souptree (Gno Mo Soup)
*  jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. samirah (Gammonizers)

--- posted, not confirmed
   jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. padski (Last Orders)
 

Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 11, 2007, 09:26:18 PM
"Sometimes opportunity knocks, but most of the time
it sneaks up and then quietly steals away."

Doug Larson (1902-1981)
English racer
Knock, knock .. Who's There?

three .. three who?

Cube Sluts are three away, that's who!

Backwoods finishes his team league matches with a critical win over kristoffer of Virtual Addicts .. all the remaining Cube Sluts matches are now awaiting donzaemon's return from Las Vegas where we hear he's still playing in Sunday's matches

Virtual Addicts teammate Tomawaky defeated wordman forcing Lipstick & Testosterone to sweep all its remaining seven team point matches to have a shot at a winning season

with 86.2% of the season completed and 442 matches played as of 2:10 PM CST, the results of a simulation of 7,000 iterations or seasons are below .. 71 matches remain to be played to finish the season with 100% participation by all teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds
1.5
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
35 / 35
,
---
,
68.2%
,
1:2
3.1
,
1.6
,  Cube Sluts,
35 / 44
,
29 / 32
,
3/3
,
19.2%
,
4:1
3.9
,
2.4
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
9.3%
,
10:1
6.2
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.3
,
4.8
,  Virtual Addicts,
37 / 40
,
26 / 32
,
2/1
,
-
,
-
7.0
,
5.5
,  schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 33
,
5/5
,
2.1%
,
46:1
7.7
,
6.2
,  Gammonizers,
24 / 42
,
25 / 35
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
8.4
,
6.9
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
8.6
,
7.1
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 38
,
6/7
,
1.0%
,
103:1
9.0
,
7.5
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.7
,
8.2
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
10.2
,
8.7
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
10.2
,
8.7
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
11.6
,
10.1
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
23 / 44
,
20 / 33
,
7/7
,
0.2%
,
635:1
15.5
,
14.0
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.2
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.7
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.7
,  MOJO,
22 / 34
,
17 / 27
,
7/4
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.5
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Sunday Afternoon Results:
*   cis (Last Minute) def. manxcat (MOJO)
*   Backwoods (Cube Sluts) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
*   Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts) def. wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone)

--- earlier matches confirmed
    jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. padski (Last Orders)
 
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 13, 2007, 12:13:19 AM
If you want to win, punch the best player
on the other team when nobody is looking

-Tadpole


Two Down, Two to Go!

donzaemon says he didn't win in Vegas after all, but he's back with a vengeance on Veterans Day defeating Schigolch in a 9-8 match critical to both contending teams .. with the win, donzaemon is now two wins away from single-handedly passing Club Voodoo and threatening an unprecedented four-peat for the Cube Sluts .. their destiny is in his hands, as teammates Backwoods and diane have finished all their matches .. the loss eliminated schigstogsedat from contention for a win

in an earlier match, Gammonizers' michaelsw beat DeaDice eliminating Lipstick & Testosterone from contention .. this leaves only two remaining teams in contention for a win, TakeTheMoneyAndRun in third, according to the simulation results, and Gno Mo Soup, well back and still at long odds

with 86.9% of the season completed and 446 matches played, the results of a season simulation of 3,000 iterations or seasons are below

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds
1.7
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
35 / 35
,
---
,
54.9%
,
1:1
2.5
,
0.8
,  Cube Sluts,
38 / 44
,
30 / 32
,
2/2
,
33.8%
,
2:1
4.0
,
2.3
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
10.7%
,
8:1
5.8
,
4.1
,  Virtual Addicts,
37 / 40
,
28 / 32
,
2/1
,
-
,
-
6.4
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.2
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
8.4
,
6.7
,  schigstogsedat,
30 / 42
,
21 / 32
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
8.5
,
6.8
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
8.7
,
7.0
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 38
,
6/7
,
0.7%
,
143:1
9.4
,
7.7
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 29
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.8
,
8.1
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.4
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
10.2
,
8.5
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
12.2
,
10.5
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
20 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
13.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.0
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.5
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.6
,  MOJO,
22 / 34
,
17 / 26
,
7/4
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.3
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Afternoon Matches:

    kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. johnwayne (MOJO)
    kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. sarah (white punks on dope)
*  michaelsw (Gammonizers) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)

--- Posted, not confirmed
*  donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 14, 2007, 03:58:17 PM
“Sex alleviates tension. Love causes it.”
Woody Allen (1935- )
three-time Academy Award-winning American film director, writer, actor,
jazz musician, comedian, and playwright
Tension Mounts

Pernot_Ricard defeats fellow contender gnomysTwo in a must win match for TakeTheMoneyAndRun .. with the loss, Gno Mo Soup now must also win out in team point matches to remain in contention .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun is now three match points away from pulling off a championship .. Cube Sluts needs two more to contend .. a team point loss by either will eliminate them from contention .. meanwhile Club Voodoo sits ready to celebrate should either stumble

gnomysTwo, idle for some time, played two other matches .. winning a team point match against Gusssss of UN Trio and losing against Ramses of Last, But Not Least .. team points had already been decided in the latter match .. Gno Mo Soup must now win five of their five remaining team point matches to have a shot at the win

with 88.3% of season completed and 453 matches played, results of a 6,000 iteration or season simulation are below .. remember, the order of the teams in the simulation assumes all players on all teams play all remaining matches .. actual order of finish will depend on actual matches completed .. as the season comes to a close the standings page at the Team League home page www.souptree.net/fibs_league will become a more accurate reflection of actal order of finish

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds
1.7
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
54.6%
,
1:1
2.5
,
0.8
,  Cube Sluts,
38 / 44
,
30 / 32
,
2/2
,
33.6%
,
2:1
3.5
,
1.8
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.3%
,
8:1
6.3
,
4.6
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.4
,
4.7
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.2
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
7.5
,
5.8
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
8.1
,
6.4
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
23 / 36
,
5/5
,
0.5%
,
181:1
8.4
,
6.7
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
9.7
,
8.0
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
9.8
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.4
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
11.5
,
9.8
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
12.3
,
10.6
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
20 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
13.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
13.9
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
19 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.5
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.6
,  MOJO,
22 / 34
,
17 / 26
,
7/4
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.3
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:
*   Pernot_Ricard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup)
     Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def.  gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup)
     Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def.  Gusssss (UN Trio)
*   gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def.  Gusssss (UN Trio)
*   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
     padski (Last Orders) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
     kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. sarah (white punks on dope)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 15, 2007, 03:45:25 PM
"Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity."
Anonymous
Tension Holds

there were only three matches played yesterday between five teams out of contention for first place .. every match is important, but these had no impact on the race for first .. so, there was not much change in the leader board other than in the race to see which teams can make it into the top ten

just before posting this morning, gnowysTwo of Gno Mo Soup defeated MOJO's manxcat, but team points had already been decided

What If

there is no playoff this season, but it was discussed and may be added to the rules for next season .. one playoff format discussed was simply creating a playoff between the top four teams at the end of the season .. the winner of that playoff would then be declared the winner of the season .. the exact nature of the playoff was never announced, but would likely follow the same Team Point approach as the regular season .. regardless, what if there were a playoff? what would the chances of making a playoff look like for teams this season?

the table below includes the playoff columns again .. these have been corrected and adjusted based on boomslang's comments in an earier post .. to my surprise, white punks on dope, near the top of the leader board since day one, did not make the playoffs in any of the simulation runs .. sixth place was their highest finish in any of the 9,000 plus seasons .. remember, the model assumes all teams complete all matches .. 42 match points was the minimum required for a fourth place finish in this simulation run

the playoff columns below assume a team makes the playoffs when it finishes in the top 4 positions

Simulation Results

with 89.1% of the season completed and 457 matches played, the results of a simulation of 9,000 iterations or seasons is below


[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.7
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
55.0%
,
1:1
,
100.0%
,
---
2.5
,
0.8
,  Cube Sluts,
38 / 44
,
30 / 32
,
2/2
,
33.3%
,
2:1
,
94.8%
,
1:18
3.5
,
1.8
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.0%
,
8:1
,
79.8%
,
1:4
6.3
,
4.6
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.5%
,
2:1
6.4
,
4.7
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
29.0%
,
2:1
6.8
,
5.1
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
32.8%
,
2:1
7.5
,
5.8
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
287:1
8.0
,
6.3
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
5/5
,
0.7%
,
150:1
,
20.2%
,
4:1
8.4
,
6.7
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
17.3%
,
5:1
9.0
,
7.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
7.8%
,
12:1
10.0
,
8.3
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.7
,
9.0
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
11.5
,
9.8
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
3.4%
,
28:1
11.7
,
10.0
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
13.8
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
19 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.0
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.1
,
15.4
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
15.8
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.3
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:
    DeaDice (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. bardancer (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
    vegasvic (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. houtx (three.DOG.night)
*  Otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. manxcat (MOJO)
Morning Match:
    gnowysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. manxcat (MOJO)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 15, 2007, 08:14:53 PM
All lovely things must have an ending
All lovely things must fade and die
And Youth, that's now so bravely spending
Must beg a penny by and by

— From "All Lovely Things"
Conrad Aiken (1889–1973)
Pulitzer Prize-winning American author and poet
End of an Era

with 14 other fibsters watching, blotsalot defeated donzaemon with an overwhelming gammon after a re-double accepted by donz .. with a hard to beat 8-0 lead, blotsalot went on to win in the Crawford game putting an end to the Cube Sluts remarkable attempt at four consecutive championships

nonetheless, a finish in the top four for the Cube Sluts is almost assured .. so, hat's off for an excellent defense of last season's title .. the gradual attrition of team after team needing consecutive wins of all remaining matches to contend this season illustrates the statistical rarity of winning three in a row anytime of almost anything .. winning three TL championships in a row is a record likely to stand for some time .. no simulation model is needed to make that statement

only two teams now remain in the running to overtake Club Voodoo .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun must win three of three remaining team point matches .. GNo Mo Soup must win five of five

remember, the playoff calculations, re-introduced in the last post, are just hypothetical .. there will be no playoffs this season .. the calculations are included here just for the curious

with 89.3% of season completed and 458 matches played, results of a simulation of 7,000 iterations or seasons is below


[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.9%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.0
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.4%
,
8:1
,
82.2%
,
1:5
3.2
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
86.3%
,
1:6
6.2
,
5.1
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.3%
,
2:1
6.3
,
5.2
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
30.1%
,
2:1
6.6
,
5.5
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
34.3%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
356:1
7.8
,
6.7
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
5/5
,
0.7%
,
139:1
,
23.5%
,
3:1
8.2
,
7.1
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
20.4%
,
4:1
8.8
,
7.7
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.8%
,
10:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.5
,
9.4
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
3566:1
11.5
,
10.4
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
3.7%
,
26:1
11.6
,
10.5
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.0
,
13.9
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.1
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Morning Results:

blotsalot (Last Orders) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 16, 2007, 05:02:52 PM
"probability [is] a measurable degree of certainty; necessity and chance;
moral versus mathematical expectation; a priori an a posteriori probability;
expectation of winning when players are divided according to dexterity"

from The Art of Conjecture (1713)
Jacob Bernoulli (1654–1705)
Swiss mathematician

One Is a Lonely Number

only one match played since yesterday's demise of the Cube Sluts .. sedat defeated Gammonizers' samirah moving schigstogsedat into fourth place according to the simulation .. if we were having playoffs, it would still be an exciting race for that fourth place position

Law of Large Numbers

the total number of iterations for this simulation run was more than 32,000, the largest yet recorded .. unintentionally, i walked away from the computer as it continued to grind away .. comparing these results with the previous simulation run is an interesting exercise that demonstrates an important historical theorem in probability, the Law of Large Numbers .. theoretically, the more samples in a data set, the more likely the observed or measured probability is to converge on the actual probability

so, how many iterations in a simulation run is enough? the answer depends on the observation one is attempting to measure .. for these runs, i've used a very casual approach .. iterations have previously ranged from 3,000 to 14,000 or more .. i've chosen an end point in the past based on visual observation of when key values have reached a reasonable point of stability .. the current run of 32,000 was simply based on how long i was away from the computer .. is it more or less accurate than the previous run of 7,000 iterations?

the law of large numbers, first defined by Jacob Bernoulli one of the first mathematicians to seriously investigate games of chance, says that this run is more accurate .. why then did the odds for Gno Mo Soup decline from 139:1 (a 0.07% chance of winning) to 182:1 (a 0.05% chance of winning)? surely, the one match between two non-contending teams, Gammonizers and schigstogsedat, had nothing to do with it .. frankly, i'm surprised at the difference, but can't give you an exact reason for it

according to Bernoulli, the law of large numbers and the fallacy of small numbers says that the result over 32,000 iterations is closer to the theoretical probability or is more accurate than the results of the 7,000 iteration simulations .. if anything useful can be taken away from this numerical diversion into the history of probability, it is that the 51 wins observed in over 7,000 iterations in the last post is simply a smaller sample than the 175 wins observed in the 32,000 plus iterations of this one .. therefore, according to the law of large numbers the result of this run is more reliable for Gno Mo Soup's odds to win

regardless, only a few serious mathematicians or statisticians among us would care .. for the purpose of "seeing" the standings in a different and perhaps more meaningful way, i think the simulation results have reached a point of stability and consistency that meet all but the most serious purists satisfaction .. if you're one of the later, please get in touch with me and i'll happily let you sniff around within the innards of the model all you like .. if not, i hope you've found the simulations as interesting to read and use as i have

(after posting this, Mort of Gno Mo Soup pointed out that technically Gno Mo Soup can lose one of it's remaining 5 team point matches and still win the TL season .. he may be right .. if Gno Mo Soup can tie Club Voodoo with 42 team points and 35 match points, theoretically possible, Gno Mo Soup would win the tiebreaking decision since they beat Club Voodoo in their heads-up match .. while this is apparently true, the model would have given both Club Voodoo and Gno Mo Soup credit for wins in those seasons .. thus, despite the fact that the model does not (at present) use the heads-up match level of tiebreak decision making, i think the overall results are still valid .. regardless, i've manually updated the Mb/mr value for Gno Mo Soup to reflect this unusual situation - thanks for the heads up, Mort .. i'll look at fixing the model later .. but to achieve such a tiebreak situation, Gno Mo Soup would have to lose no more than one of its 12 remaining matches .. frankly, winning 5 of 5 remaining team point matches may be easier .. at least now we know who another purist is)

with 89.5% of season completed and 459 matches played, the results of a 32,000 iteration simulation are below

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.7%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.0
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.8%
,
8:1
,
81.7%
,
1:4
3.2
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
86.3%
,
1:6
5.2
,
4.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
45.3%
,
1:1
6.2
,
5.1
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
32.5%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
287:1
7.7
,
6.6
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
23.8%
,
3:1
7.8
,
6.7
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.5%
,
182:1
,
21.9%
,
4:1
8.2
,
7.1
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
20.0%
,
4:1
8.8
,
7.7
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.3%
,
11:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.5
,
9.4
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
4568:1
11.5
,
10.4
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
3.5%
,
28:1
11.5
,
10.4
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.0
,
13.9
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.1
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Results:
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. samirah (Gammonizers)

Morning Results (not included):
   gaspar (No Nuts A**hole) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 17, 2007, 03:12:58 PM
The road to wisdom?
Well its plain and simple to express:
Err and err and err again,
but less and less and less.

Piet Hein  (1905-1996)
Danish scientist, mathematician, inventor, author, and poet
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow

TL is creeping at a "petty pace" while these posts "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" continue to document another day with one TL match played .. gaspar on No Nuts A**hole defeated Ramses on Last, But Not Least .. team points had already been decided, but the win pushes No Nuts A**hole back into fourth place, according to the simulation results .. maybe tomorrow there will be news to report .. until then news from the innards of the model continues to make headlines

Whoops

while trying to fix the MB/mr calculation to accommodate the situation Mort pointed out yesterday, i found a little bug in the way team points were used in determining the winner .. wins against white punks on dope were reported correctly, but not being used in the actual win calculation .. it was a minor problem with little impact in current rankings and estimates .. the most significant change seems to be the improved odds for my team Smack, Slap, and Spank to make the hypothetical playoffs

Bill Gates once said, "There are no significant bugs in our released software that any significant number of users want fixed" .. thanks to Mort pointing out a subtle glitch in the way MB/mr is calculated, i found the other bug in a different area of the program demanding immediate attention .. so it goes in the life cycle of any software design ..

Gno Mo Soup's odds to win calculation decreased moderately again .. whether this had to do with the law of large numbers or the omnipresence of bugs in computer programs, i have no clue ..

the fix for MB/mr is still too subtle for repair this morning .. so, the model still reports MB/mr of 5/5 for Gno Mo Soup when in fact it is 4/5 .. it is manually corrected below .. all others are correct

with 89.7% of the season completed and 460 matches played, the results of a simulation of 24,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure asssumed below is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.8%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
1.9
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.6%
,
8:1
,
83.6%
,
1:5
3.2
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
86.9%
,
1:7
5.8
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
39.5%
,
2:1
6.2
,
5.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
31.6%
,
2:1
7.5
,
6.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
457:1
7.6
,
6.5
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
24.3%
,
3:1
8.0
,
6.9
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.5%
,
197:1
,
21.0%
,
4:1
8.4
,
7.3
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
19.4%
,
4:1
9.0
,
7.9
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.0%
,
12:1
9.2
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.9
,
8.8
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
457:1
11.0
,
9.9
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
6.0%
,
16:1
11.9
,
10.8
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.2
,
14.1
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.9
,
14.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.5
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 18
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:
   gaspar (No Nuts A**hole) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 17, 2007, 08:20:35 PM
Individual Stats

with 89.9% of season completed or 461 matches played, 52 remain unplayed .. only the leaders Club Voodoo and white punks on dope have completed all their matches .. 21 of 54 players, boldfaced below, have completed all their matches

Congrats to scuba on Club Voodoo who has the best individual record locked up with 15 wins and only 3 losses


Top 25 All Positions
------------------------

[table=]
Rank,  Pos,   Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
1
,
2
,scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
2
,
3
,dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
2
,
3
,krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
4
,
1
,mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
5
,
1
,cis,Last Minute,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
5
,
2
,vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
7
,
2
,Zorba,Last Minute,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
8
,
3
,gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
8
,
3
,Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
10
,
1
,gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
7
,
4
,
63.6%
11
,
1
,bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
11
,
1
,otto,Ottoman's Empire,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
11
,
1
,rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
14
,
2
,sedat,schigstogsedat,
8
,
5
,
61.5%
15
,
2
,Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
15
,
2
,kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
15
,
3
,diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
18
,
2
,Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
19
,
2
,Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
19
,
3
,zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
21
,
3
,resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
22
,
1
,michaelsw,Gammonizers,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
22
,
2
,BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
24
,
1
,Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
24
,
3
,souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
[/table]

Position 1 - 9 point matches
----------------------------------

[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
cis,Last Minute,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
7
,
4
,
63.6%
bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
otto,Ottoman's Empire,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
michaelsw,Gammonizers,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
Pernot_Ricard,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
blotsalot,Last Orders,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
inim,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
donzaemon,Cube Sluts,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
factotum,Club Voodoo,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
gaspar,No Nuts A**hole,
6
,
8
,
42.9%
DeaDice,Lipstick & Testosterone,
6
,
9
,
40.0%
Gusssss,UN Trio,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
Ramses,Last But Not Least,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
don,three.DOG.night,
4
,
10
,
28.6%
manxcat,MOJO,
4
,
10
,
28.6%
[/table]

Position 2 - 7 point matches
----------------------------------

[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
Zorba,Last Minute,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
sedat,schigstogsedat,
8
,
5
,
61.5%
Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
elmicho,Smack Slap and Spank,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
sarah,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
jimbok,Ottoman's Empire,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
chopos,UN Trio,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
padski,Last Orders,
6
,
8
,
42.9%
houtx,three.DOG.night,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
samirah,Gammonizers,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
johnwayne,MOJO,
5
,
11
,
31.3%
wyzzz,two dicks and a chick,
3
,
11
,
21.4%
cassandra,Last But Not Least,
3
,
13
,
18.8%
[/table]

Position 3 - 5 point matches
----------------------------------

[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
Wallenstein,three.DOG.night,
8
,
8
,
50.0%
onion,MOJO,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
taylor,Ottoman's Empire,
7
,
8
,
46.7%
stog,schigstogsedat,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
wordman,Lipstick & Testosterone,
7
,
9
,
43.8%
sixty_something,Smack Slap and Spank,
7
,
10
,
41.2%
boomslang,Last Minute,
6
,
11
,
35.3%
Eve,two dicks and a chick,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
erdbeere,Last Orders,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
jasonj,Last But Not Least,
5
,
13
,
27.8%
Tomawaky,Virtual Addicts,
4
,
12
,
25.0%
[/table]

Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 17, 2007, 10:31:56 PM
Individual Matches Remaining (imr)

with 89.9% of season completed or 461 matches played, 52 matches remain unplayed or 104 individual matches .. the following players have 3 or more matches remaining, a total of 76 individual matches - nearly 75% of all remaining individual matches .. the season has been extended to end on Nov 30th rather than the 15th .. the matches represented on this list could determine the final standings .. get'em played ladies and gentlemen .. let's have the season be determined by actual matches played not forfeits or a simulation

[table=]
Pos,   Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, imr
1
,gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
7
,
4
,
7
1
,cis,Last Minute,
9
,
4
,
5
2
,vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
4
,
5
2
,sedat,schigstogsedat,
8
,
5
,
5
1
,michaelsw,Gammonizers,
7
,
6
,
5
2
,BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
7
,
6
,
5
1
,gaspar,No Nuts A**hole,
6
,
8
,
4
2
,padski,Last Orders,
6
,
8
,
4
1
,don,three.DOG.night,
4
,
10
,
4
1
,manxcat,MOJO,
4
,
10
,
4
2
,wyzzz,two dicks and a chick,
3
,
11
,
4
1
,Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
8
,
7
,
3
3
,souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
8
,
7
,
3
3
,taylor,Ottoman's Empire,
7
,
8
,
3
1
,DeaDice,Lipstick & Testosterone,
6
,
9
,
3
1
,Gusssss,UN Trio,
5
,
10
,
3
1
,Ramses,Last But Not Least,
5
,
10
,
3
2
,samirah,Gammonizers,
5
,
10
,
3
3
,erdbeere,Last Orders,
5
,
10
,
3
[/table]
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 18, 2007, 04:20:13 PM
No matter how noble and special people want to
make the playoffs out to be... it's a crapshoot.

Orel Hershiser (1958- )
Cy Young Award and World Series MVP winner with the 1988 L.A. Dodgers.
Close Race for Fourth Gets Closer

Last Minute wins a pair, one for team points, and schigstogsedat wins one for match points only as both teams gain a little ground on No Nuts A**hole in fourth .. five teams are easily within striking distance to overtake the A**holes in the race for fourth place bragging rights

BushSucks of TakeTheMoneyAndRun lost to Zorba on Last Minute, but team points had already been decided .. BushSucks has four more matches to play, three are for team points .. a sweep in the team point matches will be required for TakeTheMoneyAndRun to win

90.3% of the season is completed with 463 matches played .. the results of a 12,000 iteration simulation are below .. 50 matches remain unplayed .. a list of remaining individual matches for players with 3 or more unplayed is in the previous post .. prior to that is a set of individual stats still relatively current

playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure asssumed below is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.6%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.0
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 34
,
3/3
,
11.9%
,
7:1
,
82.3%
,
1:5
3.3
,
2.2
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
83.4%
,
1:5
5.8
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
38.9%
,
2:1
6.1
,
5.0
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
32.3%
,
2:1
6.7
,
5.6
,  Last Minute,
30 / 42
,
27 / 34
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
,
30.6%
,
2:1
7.5
,
6.4
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
24.8%
,
3:1
7.6
,
6.5
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
479:1
8.0
,
6.9
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.5%
,
203:1
,
20.7%
,
4:1
9.2
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.9
,
8.8
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
799:1
10.7
,
9.6
,  Ottoman's Empire,
32 / 38
,
25 / 30
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1499:1
11.0
,
9.9
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
6.1%
,
15:1
11.9
,
10.8
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.2
,
14.1
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.5
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 17
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Results:
*   cis (Last Minute) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
    Zorba (Last Minute) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)

--- Posted, not confirmed
    sedat (schigstogsedat) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)

* for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 19, 2007, 03:07:36 PM
It ain't over till it's over
Yogi Berra (1925 - )
Hall of Fame NY Yankee catcher/manager
Almost Over

vegasvic of Lipstick & Testosterone beat BushSucks of TakeTheMoneyAndRun taking them out of contention for the win .. (worthy of note, on reading this post and after the match yesterday: vegasvic shouts: btw i did not beat bush , fibs dice beat the poor guy) .. BushSucks also played two other matches yesterday winning one for team points against Gammonizers' samirah; losing a second against Mort on Gno Mo Soup where team points had already been decided

focus for this season's championship run now shifts to the longshot Gno Mo Soup, the last team with a chance at catching or passing Club Voodoo .. gnomysTwo with 7 matches remaining to be played is the lynchpin of their hopes with 2 critical matches for team points remaining and 2 other must win matches where Gno Mo Soup faces double match point with one loss already on the books .. Mort faces vegasvic in their remaining match for team points .. with team point wins in 4 of 5 of those matches, Gno Mo Soup can catch and potentially tie Club Voodoo .. in case of a tie, Gno Mo Soup's win over Club Voodoo earlier in the season would decide the tiebreak .. with wins in all 5 team point matches, Gno Mo Soup could win the championship outright .. but the simulation below gives odds of 114:1 for such an upset

therefore, Club Voodoo has iced down the champagne in the clubhouse for the celebration, but as Yogi said, "It ain't over till it's over"

with 91.2% of the season completed and 468 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 7,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams .. the simulation order assumes all remaining matches are played

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
99.1%
,
1:114
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
1.9
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
90.1%
,
1:9
3.4
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
81.2%
,
1:4
5.9
,
4.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
37.9%
,
2:1
6.2
,
5.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
31.3%
,
2:1
6.8
,
5.7
,  Last Minute,
30 / 42
,
27 / 34
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
,
32.4%
,
2:1
7.8
,
6.7
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
25 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.9%
,
114:1
,
24.2%
,
3:1
7.8
,
6.7
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1744:1
8.3
,
7.2
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
13.5%
,
6:1
9.4
,
8.3
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.0
,
8.9
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
27 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
9.1%
,
10:1
10.0
,
8.9
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
2325:1
10.2
,
9.1
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1744:1
12.2
,
11.1
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.2
,
14.1
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.9
,
14.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.8
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.8
,
16.7
,  MOJO,
24 / 30
,
17 / 23
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:

*   BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. samirah (Gammonizers)
     Mort (Gno Mo Soup) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
*   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
*   michaelsw (Gammonizers) def. manxcat (MOJO)
*   otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)

--- Earlier match confirmed
     sedat (schigstogsedat) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)

* for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 20, 2007, 04:06:55 PM
The race is not to the swift,
nor the battle to the strong,
but that's the way to bet

Grantland Rice (1880–1954)
American sportswriter
Ten To Go

souptree of Gno Mo Soup beat erdbeere of Last Orders, but team points had already been decided .. the win gives them a slight improvement in their odds to win, but they remain longshots at 83:1 .. Gno Mo Soup has 10 matches remaining to be played with only 10 days remaining in the extended season .. gnomysTwo has 7 of those matches .. come on out and play gnomys, we're waiting on you

No Nuts A**hole lost two team points matches yesterday dropping them out of the top four into twelfth place.. Last Minute with a win moves up into fourth, according to the simulation .. but, remember, the simulation assumes all remaining matches are played by all teams .. final rankings are determined by total team and match points earned

with 92.0% of the season completed and 472 matches played, the results for a simulation of over 14,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
98.8%
,
1:83
,
100.0%
,
---
2.9
,
1.8
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
95.2%
,
1:20
3.4
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
85.1%
,
1:6
5.7
,
4.6
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
28 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
44.7%
,
1:1
6.0
,
4.9
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
36.4%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.4%
,
268:1
7.6
,
6.5
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
26 / 36
,
4/5
,
1.2%
,
83:1
,
29.0%
,
2:1
8.1
,
7.0
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
18.0%
,
5:1
9.0
,
7.9
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.1
,
8.0
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
31 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.4%
,
11:1
9.8
,
8.7
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
388:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
25 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
636:1
10.0
,
8.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.5%
,
211:1
12.2
,
11.1
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.3
,
14.2
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 26
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:
*  Zorba (Last Minute) def. vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone)
*  manxcat (MOJO) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)
   souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. erdbeere (Last Orders)

--- posted, not confirmed
*  DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)

*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 21, 2007, 03:56:13 PM
Turn out the lights, the party's over,
they say all good things must end.
Call it tonight, the party's over.
And tomorrow starts the same old thing again.

The Party's Over by Willie Nelson (1933- )
Texas singer/songwriter
old-school cowboy-hippie troubadour
Not Much New

another day with only one TL match played .. cis beats DeaDice, completing a team sweep, moving Last Minute into a stronger hold on fourth place in the simulation, but they'll have to win at least one more team point match and finish the rest to secure it .. Virtual Addicts and white punks on dope are sitting on 38 team points holding onto a tie which would go to the punks unless the Addicts can win another match point

as the season winds down, the simulation model results are getting almost academic .. the first three places seem secure .. the race is down to who will finish fourth and whether Gno Mo Soup will finish at all .. down in the pack a few other matches for nothing but pride will determine the final order of finish

regardless, i've enjoyed posting and will continue to post results through the end of the season as more matches are finished .. once the season ends, i'll post the final individual stats 

40 more matches remain to be played .. with 92.2% of the season completed and 473 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 10,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
98.9%
,
1:88
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
1.9
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
93.9%
,
1:15
3.4
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
83.6%
,
1:5
5.5
,
4.4
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
29 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
47.1%
,
1:1
6.0
,
4.9
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
37.0%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
382:1
7.6
,
6.5
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
26 / 36
,
4/5
,
1.1%
,
88:1
,
28.8%
,
2:1
8.1
,
7.0
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
17.7%
,
5:1
8.9
,
7.8
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.6
,
8.5
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
31 / 40
,
24 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
5.1%
,
18:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
621:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
25 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1421:1
10.0
,
8.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
301:1
12.1
,
11.0
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.3
,
14.2
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 26
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Matches:
   cis (Last Minute) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)

--- earlier match confirmed
*  DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)

*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 22, 2007, 04:41:28 PM
With the catching ends the pleasure of the chase
Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865)
16th US President 1861-65
gnomysTwo Takes Three

Gno Mo Soup still needs to win 4 of 5 team point matches to take the season championship from Club Voodoo, but gnomysTwo played and won three matches yesterday, none for team points .. Gno Mo Soup's odds to win have now improved to 18:1, still a longshot, but far better than the recent 88:1 or nearly 200:1 of a few days ago

in a double match point must win, gnomysTwo first beat bardancer, my teammate on Smack, Slap, and Spank, winning 9-7 in a close one decided on the last few rolls .. souptree and i are now scheduled to face off for team points .. gnomy also beat otto of Ottoman's Empire and rollingfool of two dicks and a chick .. gnomysTwo with 4 matches remaining to be played is still Gno Mo Soup's lynchpin with 2 critical matches for team points remaining, against micaelsw of Gammonizers and cis on Last Minute .. in one other must win match, Gno Mo Soup faces double match point with gnomysTwo against gaspar on No Nuts A**hole and souptree against zyxtcba .. Mort faces vegasvic of Lipstick & Testosterone and souptree faces me in their remaining team point matches

an interesting aside from the simulation below is that Gno Mo Soup wins 551 times in the simulation of 10,191 iterations .. of those 551 wins, 417 or 75% are ties with Club Voodoo .. since Gno Mo Soup won in their season match, the tiebreaker would give Gno Mo Soup the season championship .. this explains why gnomysTwo three wins (none for team points) improved the odds by as much as they did .. the three match points make the prospect of catching and tying Club Voodoo more likely .. for in this case, a tie is as good as a win .. but even a tie means no more than one more loss in any match by the challenger .. therefore any two losses knockout 75% of their win chances - good luck guys

only 35 matches remain to be played .. with 93.2% of the season completed and 478 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 10,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
94.6%
,
1:18
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
2.0
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
91.1%
,
1:10
3.4
,
2.4
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
80.9%
,
1:4
5.6
,
4.6
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
29 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
43.7%
,
1:1
6.0
,
5.0
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.1%
,
2:1
6.4
,
5.4
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
29 / 36
,
4/5
,
5.4%
,
18:1
,
40.1%
,
1:1
7.4
,
6.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
2037:1
8.2
,
7.2
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
15.2%
,
6:1
8.2
,
7.2
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
31 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
7.6%
,
12:1
8.9
,
7.9
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
8.4
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
5094:1
10.4
,
9.4
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
10190:1
11.3
,
10.3
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
10190:1
12.4
,
11.4
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 27
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.4
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Matches:

     gaspar (No Nuts A**hole) def. Gusssss (UN Trio)
     wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. erdbeere (Last Orders)
     gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. bardancer (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
     gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
     gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. roolingfool (two dicks and a chick)

*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 23, 2007, 10:59:08 AM
On Thanksgiving Day, all over America,
families sit down to dinner at the same moment - halftime.

~Author Unknown
Little Change on Turkey Day

the leader board remains about the same, as only three matches are played on Thanksgiving Day .. with a win in a team point match, Lipstick & Testosterone moves into sixth, according to the average order of finish in the simulation .. L & T swaps places with Gammonizers, now in 8th after a team point loss .. further down in the pack, three.DOG.night edged ahead of Last Orders, according to the simulation

remember, the simulation assumes all remaining matches are played by all teams .. final rankings are determined by total team and match points earned in actual matches played .. only two teams have finshed all matches .. two teams, schigstogsedat and Gno Mo Soup, have 7 matches remaining .. with the season in its last week, 32 matches remain to be played

93.8% of the season has been completed and 481 matches played .. the results of a simulation of over 14,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
95.0%
,
1:19
,
100.0%
,
---
2.9
,
1.9
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
92.4%
,
1:12
3.4
,
2.4
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
81.3%
,
1:4
5.6
,
4.6
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
29 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
44.1%
,
1:1
6.1
,
5.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.1%
,
2:1
6.4
,
5.4
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
29 / 36
,
4/5
,
5.0%
,
19:1
,
39.4%
,
3:2
7.3
,
6.3
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
26 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
10.7%
,
8:1
7.5
,
6.5
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
874:1
8.4
,
7.4
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
13.7%
,
6:1
9.0
,
8.0
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
14003:1
9.4
,
8.4
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
7001:1
10.5
,
9.5
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
11.3
,
10.3
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.5
,
11.5
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 27
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 23
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.6
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:

*    wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. Wallenstein (three.DOG.night)
*    don (three.DOG.night) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)
      rollingfool (two dicks and a chick) def. michaelsw (Gammonizers)

*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 24, 2007, 05:53:44 PM
Cube Sluts Close With A Win

donzaemon beat cis on Last Minute Saturday morning closing out the season for the defending three time champion Cube Sluts .. the win pushes them into second place ahead of TakeTheMoneyAndRun and trailing Club Voodoo by only four match points - a nice title defense for the previously indomitable Cube Sluts

for a look at the Sluts now historic three-peat see the final standings from the first three seasons at the TL website:

http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small&historic=1 (http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small&historic=1)
http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small&historic=2 (http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small&historic=2)
http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small&historic=3 (http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small&historic=3)


482 matches have now been played .. 31 remain unplayed .. i'll post results from another simulation tomorrow or when more matches are played

Saturday Morning Matches:

*   donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. cis (Last Minute)

Yesterday's Matches:

    no matches played

*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 25, 2007, 01:55:39 PM
"Nobody wears beige to a bank robbery"
Virgil Starkwell in Take The Money And Run (1969)
written, directed, and starring Woody Allen (1935- )
TakeTheMoneyAndRun Takes Second

BushSucks defeated sedat of schigstogsedat putting TakeTheMoneyAndRun securely into second place .. only Gno Mo Soup, the last contender for the championship, can now change the order of the top three positions .. the race to make the hypothetical playoffs is now down to who will finish in 4th place in case Gno Mo Soup does not break into the top three .. three of the top four are now locked in

*** Late Breaking News ***

in an early Sunday morning match, gnomysTwo defeated cis of Last Minute for team points keeping Gno Mo Soup's chances alive and well .. gnomysTwo with 3 matches remaining to be played is still Gno Mo Soup's lynchpin with one more critical match for team points remaining against micaelsw of Gammonizers .. in one other must win match, Gno Mo Soup faces double match point with gnomysTwo against gaspar on No Nuts A**hole and souptree against zyxtcba .. Mort faces vegasvic of Lipstick & Testosterone and souptree faces me in their remaining team point matches

with 94.7% of the season completed 486 matches have been played,only 27 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 7,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
94.8%
,
1:18
,
100.0%
,
---
2.1
,
1.1
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
5.1
,
4.1
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
30 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
39.1%
,
2:1
6.5
,
5.5
Gno Mo Soup,
32 / 44
,
30 / 36
,
3/4
,
5.2%
,
18:1
,
39.5%
,
2:1
6.7
,
5.7
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
11.8%
,
7:1
7.4
,
6.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
2333:1
7.6
,
6.6
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
7.1%
,
13:1
8.3
,
7.3
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
9.9%
,
9:1
9.1
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.3
,
8.3
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
7002:1
10.3
,
9.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
11.1
,
10.1
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.5
,
12.5
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.6
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 22
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Sunday Morning Matches:

*   gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. cis (Last Minute)

Yesterday's Matches:

*   donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. cis (Last Minute)
    DeaDice (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. don (three.DOG.night)
*   BushSucks *TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. sedat (schigstogsedat)
*   cis (Last Minute) def. Gusssss (UN Trio)

*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 27, 2007, 11:32:01 PM
"A long shot, Watson; a very long shot," said he, pinching my arm.
from the story 'Silver Blaze' in the Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes
by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1859-1930)
Scottish author and Spiritualist
The Last Long Shot Becomes Longer

yesterday, gnomysTwo was beaten by Schigolch on schigstogsedat .. team points had already been decided, but the loss now forces Gno Mo Soup to win all its remaining matches to overtake Club Voodoo in first .. in one team point match, against No Nuts A**hole, it's double match point as one match has already been lost .. this forces Go Mo Soup to win 2 matches for the one match point .. therefore, Go Mo Soup must win all five of their remaining matches for the four match points needed to pass Club Voodoo .. while winning only three is necessary to reach 42 team points for a tie, any loss eliminates the possibility of a tie in match points and winning the tiebreaker .. as a result, the odds to win for Go Mo Soup slipped (with the loss) from 18:1 to 49:1

the simulation also revealed a major shift in odds to make the hypothetical playoff .. for reasons i cannot immediately understand, the loss by Gno Mo Soup to schigstogsedat caused Gno Mo Soup to advance to fourth place where they had previously been in a statistical dead heat with Last Minute with 2:1 odds to make the playoffs for both .. now, according to a simulation run after the loss, Gno Mo Soup is the 1:1 favorite to take fourth .. Last Minute fell from 2:1 odds to make the playoff to 40:1 .. for now, Last Minute sits securely in fourth place in the actual standings until someone passes them and the simulation says someone should

on first glance, this made no sense to me,  but the model has been stable long enough to trust .. without further examination, i counted it as just another example of the subtle and sometimes complex way in which the order of finish based on team points and match points works out, which is the whole reason i began this little simulation exercise .. again, it is important to remember the simulation assumes all matches by all players are completed .. the actual order of finish will be dependent on actual matches played

And Then Shorter

after the post above, souptree beat me in a must win match for team points .. the nature of my TL season was reflected in the exciting match .. it was a dramatic finish that could have meant the end of the season for Gno Mo Soup and saved a little pride for me .. souptree took a cube with the match at 3-2, my favor .. according to GNU, it was a very bad take, but then soup correctly redoubled and immediately rolled 55's .. even after the roll i was 63% to win, according to GNU .. i wasn't too nervous yet .. nor did i have time for nerves to set in ..  a couple of rolls later a quick and painless back to back pair of 66's was the coup de grace and end of my season .. a gutsy take there soupy and well won - congrats .. with the win, Gno Mo Soup goes back to 21:1 odds to win and 1:4 to make the hypothetical playoffs

it also now becomes clear why the odds to make a playoff increased for Last Minute .. after souptree's win their odds are now 171:1 .. with three more matches all for team points, any one win would put Gno Mo Soup in fourth .. even three losses would put them ahead of Last Minute's current total in match points .. Last Minute would have to win both matches to take back fourth place

with 95.1% of the season completed 488 matches have been played,only 25 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 12,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
95.4%
,
1:21
,
100.0%
,
---
2.3
,
1.3
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.3
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.7
,
2.7
Gno Mo Soup,
35 / 44
,
31 / 35
,
3/3
,
4.6%
,
21:1
,
78.9%
,
1:4
6.0
,
5.0
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
30 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.6%
,
171:1
6.8
,
5.8
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
10.0%
,
9:1
7.2
,
6.2
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 31
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
7.3%
,
13:1
7.6
,
6.6
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.3
,
7.3
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.0%
,
12:1
9.2
,
8.2
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
8.4
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.3
,
9.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.9
,
11.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.4
,
12.4
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.6
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 22
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Monday's Match:

      Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup)

Tuesday Evening:

*   souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank)

* for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 28, 2007, 07:36:55 PM
In the end, everything is a gag.
Charlie Chaplin (1889–1977)
English comedy actor and notable director and musician
in the early to mid Hollywood cinema era
Two Days To Go

no TL matches have been played since my last post yesterday .. only two days remain in the season .. get those matches played or forever hold your tongue about how it might have been

Actual Rankings and Predictions from Model

so, i thought i'd take the opportunity to look at the way the model varies from the current rankings at the TL website (http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small (http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small))

as the season approaches its end, the top three positions of the actual rankings are the same as those predicted by the model .. but there are some big differences beginning at fourth place .. maybe you've begun to wonder why, i know i have .. the purpose of this post is to look at some of those differences and justify why the model orders the teams as it does

as i've said several times, the actual rankings are dependent on actual matches played, while the model assumes all teams play all matches .. as we get down to the end of the season, even with only 25 matches remaining to be played, only four teams have played all their matches .. ten of those twenty-five matches remaining are for team points .. thus, thirty-three (33) team points are yet to be awarded as well as 25 match points .. the model distributes all those points .. it's unlikely all matches will be completed, as it's never happened before in four seasons .. therein is the primary difference in the actual rankings and the order of the predictions from the model

let's look at a few examples where the difference is most pronounced .. first, here are the current actual standings

[table=]
Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr   
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
Last Minute,
38 / --
,
30 / 32
,
2/0
,
Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
Gno Mo Soup,
35 / 44
,
31 / 35
,
3/3
,
Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 31
,
3/2
,
three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 22
,
4/0
,
Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
[/table]

the first thing i noticed is how the "--" entries float toward the top .. "--" means either Team or Match points have maxed out .. i didn't expect this, but it makes sense .. it's always been obvious the earliest teams to complete matches rise to the top of the actual ranking list .. it is in fact the very bias the simulation is intended to correct

what i was looking for, but didn't expect to see here so clearly, is why Last Minute, Virtual Addicts, white punks on dope, and UN Trio (all highly ranked in the current actual rankings) are rated so much lower in the simulation model average order of finish

for example, look at UN Trio maxed out at 36 team points ..  by just finishing all remaining team point matches, even losing all matches and earning only one point, Gno Mo Soup, Ottoman's Empire, No Nuts A**hole, Lipstick & Testosterone, and schigstogsedat will finish ahead of UN Trio .. Gammonizers needs only win one of three remaining team point matches to be added to that list .. remember, in the simulation model all teams finish all matches

similar logic can be applied to the situation with Last Minute, Virtual Addicts and white punks on dope maxed out at 38 team points .. in this case each of the lower rated teams in actual ratings must win at least one match to jump ahead or reach, but most have two or more matches left to play

remember, the Order column in the model represents the weighted average order of finish for each team in all iterations of the simulation run .. that is, each time a team finishes first it receives 19 points, 18 for second, 17 for third, 2 points for 18th and 1 point for 19th place

to compare the list above to the order from a simulation run, simply page down to yesterday's post .. since no matches have been played, the point values are all the same .. in most cases, it's easy to see how a single team point win by a lower ranked team can quickly push it to the top of the list past some of the teams that have maxed out in team points ..  the most subtle example is for my team, Smack, Slap, and Spank .. my teammates, elmicho and bardancer, each had pre-season FIBS ratings over 1900 .. they are paired with manxcat and wyzzz in their two remaining matches with pre-season ratings of 1588 and 1536, respectively .. thus, elmicho and bardancer are big favorites to win both matches .. if they do, and they do in the majority of cases according to the model, our 36 team points and 28 match points exceeds UN Trio's total

the formula used to calculate the probability the underdog wins is the same Elo formula used in calculating FIBS ratings .. the ratings used in the model from day one have been the initial pre-season FIBS ratings .. while there has been some variation in individual ratings as the season has progressed, it has been easier to simply go with the pre-season ratings .. at the end of the season, i'll do a pre-season post-season comparison out of curiosity to see how the two compare .. my guess is they will be about the same
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 29, 2007, 04:55:31 PM
If it weren't for the last minute, nothing would get done.
Anonymous

Down To The Last Minute

with only one match played yesterday, not much has changed .. the strategy of the lone contender for first place, Gno Mo Soup, seems to be better suited to the name Last Minute .. but Last Minute showed up for a match yesterday as cis beat don of three.DOG.night

regardless, here's hoping Gno Mo Soup finds a way to get their four remaining matches played necessary to win three team points .. a sweep will be required to pull off the upset .. otherwise, Club Voodoo can uncork the champagne tomorrow at midnight

congrats to all who have finished their matches and thanks to all who have tuned in and read these posts .. i've enjoyed watching the race unfold as the self-appointed commentator .. i hope we get to see a clean, well run, and exciting finish by all .. otherwise, i'll simulate it one last time - lol

with 95.3% of the season completed 489 matches have been played, only 24 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 9,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
95.3%
,
1:20
,
100.0%
,
---
2.3
,
1.3
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.3
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.7
,
2.7
Gno Mo Soup,
35 / 44
,
31 / 35
,
3/3
,
4.7%
,
20:1
,
79.3%
,
1:4
5.9
,
4.9
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
31 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.9%
,
110:1
6.7
,
5.7
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
9.9%
,
9:1
7.3
,
6.3
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 31
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
6.8%
,
14:1
7.7
,
6.7
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.4
,
7.4
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
7.9%
,
12:1
9.2
,
8.2
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.5
,
8.5
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.3
,
9.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.9
,
11.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.4
,
12.4
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 21
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:

      cis (Last Minute) def. don (three.DOG.night)


*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on November 30, 2007, 11:31:04 AM
Even the longest day has its end.
Irish Proverb
The Last and Longest Day

no TL matches were played on Thursday .. today, the 30th, is the last day of the season .. no allowance was made in the simulation for calculating odds on whether or not Gno Mo Soup, the last challenger to Club Voodoo, can get its matches played today .. so, best of luck guys

nonetheless, its been a fun season .. i'll post individual stats and a final run of the simulation tomorrow or during the day, if possible .. otherwise, see you all next season
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on December 01, 2007, 01:11:53 PM
If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing is like kissing your grandmother with her teeth out.
George Brett (1953 - )
American baseball player and member of the Baseball Hall of Fame
Third baseman for the Kansas City Royals (1973-1993)
Photo Finish

Mort beat vegasvic and souptree beat zyxtcba in must win matches reducing Gno Mo Soup's odds to pass Club Voodoo to 3:1 according to the most recent simulation .. but gnomysTwo has two must win matches with gaspar on No Nuts A**hole (who is on vacation) and michaelsw of Gammonizers that remain unplayed

a discussion has begun as to whether an appeal for forfeits will be held .. we had an interesting shout session last night as the final hours of the extended season wound down .. to my knowledge, no resolution of the issue has been made .. frankly, i'm not sure what the exact procedure in making that decision will be .. it gets particularly tricky, if not sticky, since the league administrator and founders souptree and zyxtcba are both on teams directly and indirectly involved in the decision

i made a strong appeal last night in shouts to play both remaining matches that might effect the championship rather than decide either by forfeit .. a long standing custom in baseball and most other sports leagues is to never, unless absolutely necessary, decide the outcome of a championship game on an umpire or officials call .. i don't ever recall a World Series ending on a called third strike and i certainly don't recall any championship decided by committee

if i can simulate being in charge for a moment, i'd call the race a photo finish and have the season championship decided in a unique kind of overtime by simply allowing gnowmyTwo's matches to be played .. since an acutal tie between Club Voodoo and Gno Mo Soup is not possible, it seems to me that is the best way to decide it

however it works out, it's been a great season with an exciting race that's gone right down to the wire .. i just hope we get to see the race decided across the board

with 96.1% of the season matches completed 493 have been played, only 20 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 2,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

final (?) standings based on actual matches completed can be seen at http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small (http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small) .. the final simulation results for FIBS Team League season four are below .. remember, the simulation assumes all matches are played - a human behavior much easier to simulate than deal with in real life

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.3
,
---
,  Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
72.9%
,
1:3
,
100.0%
,
---
2.2
,
0.9
,  Gno Mo Soup,
38 / 44
,
33 / 35
,
2/2
,
27.1%
,
3:1
,
100.0%
,
---
2.8
,
1.5
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.8
,
2.5
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
5.6
,
4.3
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
31 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
7.2
,
5.9
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
7.3
,
6.0
,  Gammonizers,
34 / 40
,
28 / 32
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
7.4
,
6.1
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.6
,
7.3
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
35 / 38
,
27 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.7
,
7.4
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.9
,
8.6
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.4
,
9.1
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.6
,
11.3
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.4
,
12.1
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.3
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
20 / 21
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.4
,  Last Orders,
28 / 34
,
20 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.6
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.2
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.7
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:

     souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. zyxtcba (No Nuts A**hole)
*    Mort (Gno Mo Soup) def. vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone)
*    samirah (Gammonizers) def. padski (Last Orders)
     don (three.DOG.night) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)

*  for team points
Title: Re: Team League Predictions
Post by: sixty_something on December 05, 2007, 07:04:44 AM
Final Individual Stats

Congrats to Club Voodoo for holding on to the lead despite strong challenges by the Cube Sluts, TakeTheMoneyAndRun, and Gno Mo Soup .. in addition to the team win, scuba with a 15-3 record had the best individual performance

while the season ended with uncertainty over talk of an appeal, the final decision declaring the winner "BY IMPERIAL FIAT OF YOUR GODMIN ZYX" was a good one, imo .. Club Voodoo moved into the lead on 03-Nov with 77% of the season completed according to the simulation finished early and held on gamely .. hopefully, the example of Gno Mo Soup's two unfinished games, which if won would have given them the championship, will encourage all teams contending or not in future seasons to finish their games well before the deadline

the season ended with 96.1% of the season matches played .. only 20 matches were unplayed, 493 played .. only four of the nineteen teams completed all their matches: Club Voodoo, TakeTheMoneyAndRun, Cube Sluts, and white punks on dope .. 33 of 54 players, boldfaced below, completed all their matches


Top 25 All Positions
----------------------


[table=]
Rank,  Pos,   Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
1
,
2
,scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
2
,
3
,dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
2
,
3
,krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
4
,
1
,mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
4
,
2
,Zorba,Last Minute,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
6
,
1
,gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
7
,
1
,cis,Last Minute,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
7
,
3
,gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
7
,
3
,Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
10
,
2
,vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
11
,
1
,otto,Ottoman's Empire,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
1
,rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
2
,Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
2
,kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
2
,Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
3
,diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
3
,souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
18
,
2
,sedat,schigstogsedat,
9
,
6
,
60.0%
19
,
1
,bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
19
,
2
,Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
21
,
3
,resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
22
,
1
,michaelsw,Gammonizers,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
23
,
1
,Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
23
,
2
,elmicho,Smack Slap and Spank,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
23
,
3
,zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
[/table]

Position 1 - 9 point matches
------------------------------


[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost
mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
cis,Last Minute,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
otto,Ottoman's Empire,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
michaelsw,Gammonizers,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
donzaemon,Cube Sluts,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
Pernot_Ricard,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
blotsalot,Last Orders,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
inim,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
factotum,Club Voodoo,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
DeaDice,Lipstick & Testosterone,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
gaspar,No Nuts A**hole,
7
,
10
,
41.2%
don,three.DOG.night,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
manxcat,MOJO,
5
,
11
,
31.3%
Gusssss,UN Trio,
5
,
12
,
29.4%
Ramses,Last But Not Least,
5
,
12
,
29.4%
[/table]

Position 2 - 7 point matches
------------------------------


[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost
scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
Zorba,Last Minute,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
sedat,schigstogsedat,
9
,
6
,
60.0%
Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
elmicho,Smack Slap and Spank,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
sarah,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
jimbok,Ottoman's Empire,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
chopos,UN Trio,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
padski,Last Orders,
6
,
9
,
40.0%
samirah,Gammonizers,
6
,
11
,
35.3%
houtx,three.DOG.night,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
johnwayne,MOJO,
5
,
11
,
31.3%
wyzzz,two dicks and a chick,
3
,
11
,
21.4%
cassandra,Last But Not Least,
3
,
14
,
17.6%
[/table]

Position 3 - 5 point matches
------------------------------


[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost
dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
wordman,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
onion,MOJO,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
Wallenstein,three.DOG.night,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
taylor,Ottoman's Empire,
7
,
8
,
46.7%
stog,schigstogsedat,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
sixty_something,Smack Slap and Spank,
7
,
11
,
38.9%
boomslang,Last Minute,
6
,
11
,
35.3%
Eve,two dicks and a chick,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
erdbeere,Last Orders,
5
,
12
,
29.4%
jasonj,Last But Not Least,
5
,
13
,
27.8%
Tomawaky,Virtual Addicts,
4
,
12
,
25.0%
[/table]
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