There is still 14 places for the Tourney 105 BUT Watch out this is a very long tourney DON'T SIGN UP if not interested, It will start in april or sooner if completed.
TourneyBot: Displaying information about Tourney 105:
TourneyBot: |105: [bracket] Single Elimination Bracket Tourney #105| |Unknown| |Directors: Tomawaky| |Status: Signing up!|
TourneyBot: Min players: 32 Max players: 64 Registered players: 50 (14 spots left)
TourneyBot: Match length: 15 Match length finals: 21
TourneyBot: Limits: (no limits)
TourneyBot: Description: This is a bracket tournament consisting of 15 point matches and a final of 21 points. This tournament will start he first of April, if the required 32 minimum players register. You will have one month to complete your first round match, then another one for your second round match etc.
TourneyBot: Done displaying information on Tourney 105.
Last spot available, already 63 players registered
The tourney is about to start
:D
The tourney has began : Here is the bracket (http://fibsleagammon.free.fr/flgty.htm)
Tomawaky
What follows is the data on probabilities of advancing to a particular round in the tournament (Tourney 105 on FIBS). I took the ratings at the beginning of the tournament, and used the FIBS rating formula, which predicts the probability of winning a match based on a rating difference. I wrote a program which takes these probabilities and calculates the probability of advancing to a particular round.
There are six tables here, which represent the probabilities of winning in that round. In particular, the first table listed, "Round 6", gives the probabilities of winning the tournament, since the finals is Round 6.
There are four columns. "Rating" is the rating of the players when TourneyBot posted the brackets. 1/Prob represents the reciprocal of the probability that the particular player will win the tournament. For example, the probability that melzi will win the tournament is 1/4.232, which is probability 0.236 -- that's the third column. OvAve is short for "Over Average". For melzi, the entry of 15.124 means that the probability that melzi will win the tournament is 15.124 times as likely as if we all just flipped coins to see who advances.
The only assumption I make in all of this is that the FIBS rating formula accurate predicts the correct probability of victory between two players. This is flawed in two ways: one, we don't know how accurate the rating model is, and finally, I'm only using a snapshot of the ratings at the beginning of the tournament, and for no other reason than pure noise, there's no reason to assume the numbers predict with 100% accuracy the strength of the players.
All of that being said, I think this has extremely strong predictive value. For example, if I were wagering in a Calcutta auction, I'd rely quite heavily on these numbers.
JLee
ROUND 6 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
melzi 2002.68 4.232 0.236 15.124
hound_dog 1954.53 8.777 0.114 7.292
WooMets 1852.94 11.788 0.085 5.429
Blotman 1843.24 15.703 0.064 4.076
JLee 1788.14 21.070 0.047 3.038
alef 1801.99 22.780 0.044 2.809
mOOse 1806.82 27.836 0.036 2.299
Val 1802.30 31.605 0.032 2.025
TheExecutioner 1771.49 32.065 0.031 1.996
EddieVedd 1753.96 37.176 0.027 1.722
crille 1718.72 45.080 0.022 1.420
Slipshod 1747.11 46.036 0.022 1.390
clay 1787.85 50.561 0.020 1.266
Spock 1810.89 52.787 0.019 1.212
MND 1773.36 59.926 0.017 1.068
Iceborg 1751.56 61.645 0.016 1.038
don 1726.22 62.555 0.016 1.023
juanz 1674.19 68.743 0.015 0.931
MissBiggy 1762.71 73.615 0.014 0.869
mano 1721.58 74.563 0.013 0.858
Travis 1774.97 74.931 0.013 0.854
burper 1724.80 82.658 0.012 0.774
crueger 1695.05 92.923 0.011 0.689
yes 1654.78 110.684 0.009 0.578
MadMatt 1652.76 113.011 0.009 0.566
cowgirl 1636.10 157.710 0.006 0.406
badspellr 1681.41 176.761 0.006 0.362
diane 1665.24 188.627 0.005 0.339
Zauberin 1633.36 229.227 0.004 0.279
amarganth 1630.60 252.964 0.004 0.253
HumanIAm 1665.57 313.988 0.003 0.204
Rammot 1671.14 330.249 0.003 0.194
donzaemon 1646.80 359.750 0.003 0.178
leveler 1624.49 369.399 0.003 0.173
socksey 1605.41 423.476 0.002 0.151
Tomawaky 1661.03 524.142 0.002 0.122
bekir 1627.82 530.262 0.002 0.121
elmroth 1620.01 605.895 0.002 0.106
noodle 1629.35 619.184 0.002 0.103
Leeze 1590.16 649.492 0.002 0.099
wingtsun 1579.13 837.835 0.001 0.076
aslengyel 1557.67 1039.380 0.001 0.062
umutlabir 1551.77 1172.218 0.001 0.055
Wallenstein 1549.02 1190.478 0.001 0.054
True_Blue 1516.51 1266.690 0.001 0.051
sports_photog 1506.33 1552.883 0.001 0.041
DirtyHarryII 1545.92 1631.359 0.001 0.039
stacy 1514.45 1764.170 0.001 0.036
grillbill 1491.99 2538.322 0.000 0.025
eggplant 1496.32 2581.314 0.000 0.025
Matrasback 1509.14 2599.046 0.000 0.025
chopos 1479.96 3428.748 0.000 0.019
jinnate 1469.69 3771.868 0.000 0.017
houtx 1495.69 4185.835 0.000 0.015
wood 1460.21 4514.813 0.000 0.014
eskenazi 1465.88 14215.764 0.000 0.005
Frostie 1462.49 17175.477 0.000 0.004
TimDugan 1319.51 91371.295 0.000 0.001
atias 1377.96 109662.136 0.000 0.001
danjonas 1306.57 247617.047 0.000 0.000
jkreed 1300.95 590068.468 0.000 0.000
JimyB 1225.86 2611826.125 0.000 0.000
Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 3004536.770 0.000 0.000
Cass 1144.34 36875037.296 0.000 0.000
ROUND 5 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
melzi 2002.68 3.327 0.301 9.619
WooMets 1852.94 5.670 0.176 5.644
hound_dog 1954.53 6.511 0.154 4.915
JLee 1788.14 8.540 0.117 3.747
alef 1801.99 9.578 0.104 3.341
Blotman 1843.24 9.737 0.103 3.287
TheExecutioner 1771.49 12.370 0.081 2.587
EddieVedd 1753.96 13.586 0.074 2.355
crille 1718.72 14.754 0.068 2.169
mOOse 1806.82 16.004 0.062 1.999
Val 1802.30 18.014 0.056 1.776
juanz 1674.19 19.399 0.052 1.650
don 1726.22 21.008 0.048 1.523
Iceborg 1751.56 22.391 0.045 1.429
Slipshod 1747.11 23.059 0.043 1.388
mano 1721.58 24.641 0.041 1.299
clay 1787.85 27.873 0.036 1.148
yes 1654.78 29.100 0.034 1.100
MadMatt 1652.76 29.499 0.034 1.085
Spock 1810.89 30.610 0.033 1.045
MND 1773.36 31.983 0.031 1.001
MissBiggy 1762.71 38.268 0.026 0.836
cowgirl 1636.10 38.837 0.026 0.824
burper 1724.80 39.005 0.026 0.820
Travis 1774.97 40.085 0.025 0.798
crueger 1695.05 40.479 0.025 0.791
diane 1665.24 51.574 0.019 0.620
badspellr 1681.41 73.946 0.014 0.433
Zauberin 1633.36 82.708 0.012 0.387
leveler 1624.49 87.006 0.011 0.368
amarganth 1630.60 90.391 0.011 0.354
donzaemon 1646.80 91.890 0.011 0.348
socksey 1605.41 92.820 0.011 0.345
HumanIAm 1665.57 125.229 0.008 0.256
Rammot 1671.14 134.119 0.007 0.239
Leeze 1590.16 134.336 0.007 0.238
wingtsun 1579.13 165.965 0.006 0.193
bekir 1627.82 187.638 0.005 0.171
aslengyel 1557.67 188.539 0.005 0.170
True_Blue 1516.51 193.936 0.005 0.165
Tomawaky 1661.03 206.514 0.005 0.155
umutlabir 1551.77 207.515 0.005 0.154
elmroth 1620.01 209.530 0.005 0.153
noodle 1629.35 220.535 0.005 0.145
sports_photog 1506.33 227.888 0.004 0.140
stacy 1514.45 267.831 0.004 0.119
Wallenstein 1549.02 320.992 0.003 0.100
grillbill 1491.99 349.307 0.003 0.092
eggplant 1496.32 362.952 0.003 0.088
DirtyHarryII 1545.92 433.388 0.002 0.074
chopos 1479.96 447.919 0.002 0.071
jinnate 1469.69 471.650 0.002 0.068
wood 1460.21 542.591 0.002 0.059
Matrasback 1509.14 601.925 0.002 0.053
houtx 1495.69 917.454 0.001 0.035
eskenazi 1465.88 2760.394 0.000 0.012
Frostie 1462.49 3294.226 0.000 0.010
TimDugan 1319.51 5716.157 0.000 0.006
danjonas 1306.57 14549.903 0.000 0.002
atias 1377.96 14607.762 0.000 0.002
jkreed 1300.95 55296.720 0.000 0.001
JimyB 1225.86 103138.953 0.000 0.000
Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 230831.762 0.000 0.000
Cass 1144.34 1622364.565 0.000 0.000
ROUND 4 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
melzi 2002.68 2.340 0.427 6.837
WooMets 1852.94 3.751 0.267 4.265
hound_dog 1954.53 3.822 0.262 4.186
JLee 1788.14 5.100 0.196 3.137
alef 1801.99 5.232 0.191 3.058
Blotman 1843.24 5.339 0.187 2.997
TheExecutioner 1771.49 6.359 0.157 2.516
crille 1718.72 6.743 0.148 2.373
mOOse 1806.82 6.969 0.143 2.296
EddieVedd 1753.96 7.614 0.131 2.101
Val 1802.30 7.771 0.129 2.059
juanz 1674.19 7.963 0.126 2.009
Slipshod 1747.11 8.687 0.115 1.842
don 1726.22 11.168 0.090 1.433
yes 1654.78 11.344 0.088 1.410
MadMatt 1652.76 11.439 0.087 1.399
Iceborg 1751.56 12.501 0.080 1.280
mano 1721.58 12.967 0.077 1.234
crueger 1695.05 13.262 0.075 1.206
Spock 1810.89 13.453 0.074 1.189
clay 1787.85 13.652 0.073 1.172
burper 1724.80 13.833 0.072 1.157
cowgirl 1636.10 14.430 0.069 1.109
MND 1773.36 15.197 0.066 1.053
MissBiggy 1762.71 17.744 0.056 0.902
Travis 1774.97 19.088 0.052 0.838
Zauberin 1633.36 22.619 0.044 0.707
diane 1665.24 24.035 0.042 0.666
amarganth 1630.60 24.496 0.041 0.653
badspellr 1681.41 28.175 0.035 0.568
leveler 1624.49 31.284 0.032 0.511
socksey 1605.41 37.377 0.027 0.428
donzaemon 1646.80 40.960 0.024 0.391
Leeze 1590.16 43.868 0.023 0.365
HumanIAm 1665.57 45.747 0.022 0.350
Rammot 1671.14 49.781 0.020 0.321
True_Blue 1516.51 50.528 0.020 0.317
sports_photog 1506.33 57.496 0.017 0.278
bekir 1627.82 61.753 0.016 0.259
wingtsun 1579.13 62.417 0.016 0.256
aslengyel 1557.67 66.769 0.015 0.240
Wallenstein 1549.02 67.164 0.015 0.238
elmroth 1620.01 67.601 0.015 0.237
umutlabir 1551.77 72.267 0.014 0.221
noodle 1629.35 72.990 0.014 0.219
Tomawaky 1661.03 74.638 0.013 0.214
stacy 1514.45 83.830 0.012 0.191
grillbill 1491.99 83.925 0.012 0.191
DirtyHarryII 1545.92 89.478 0.011 0.179
chopos 1479.96 103.430 0.010 0.155
jinnate 1469.69 105.326 0.009 0.152
eggplant 1496.32 107.634 0.009 0.149
Matrasback 1509.14 109.931 0.009 0.146
wood 1460.21 117.540 0.009 0.136
houtx 1495.69 159.577 0.006 0.100
Frostie 1462.49 509.545 0.002 0.031
eskenazi 1465.88 546.704 0.002 0.029
TimDugan 1319.51 744.770 0.001 0.021
atias 1377.96 1647.691 0.001 0.010
danjonas 1306.57 2272.378 0.000 0.007
jkreed 1300.95 5990.316 0.000 0.003
JimyB 1225.86 11862.984 0.000 0.001
Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 21222.659 0.000 0.001
Cass 1144.34 71534.407 0.000 0.000
ROUND 3 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
melzi 2002.68 1.713 0.584 4.671
Blotman 1843.24 2.425 0.412 3.299
WooMets 1852.94 2.515 0.398 3.181
hound_dog 1954.53 2.994 0.334 2.672
JLee 1788.14 3.091 0.324 2.588
crille 1718.72 3.435 0.291 2.329
Slipshod 1747.11 3.473 0.288 2.304
alef 1801.99 3.476 0.288 2.301
EddieVedd 1753.96 3.570 0.280 2.241
TheExecutioner 1771.49 4.035 0.248 1.983
juanz 1674.19 4.240 0.236 1.887
mOOse 1806.82 4.562 0.219 1.754
crueger 1695.05 4.608 0.217 1.736
don 1726.22 4.916 0.203 1.627
yes 1654.78 5.009 0.200 1.597
MadMatt 1652.76 5.027 0.199 1.591
Val 1802.30 5.056 0.198 1.582
clay 1787.85 5.445 0.184 1.469
mano 1721.58 5.639 0.177 1.419
cowgirl 1636.10 6.101 0.164 1.311
Zauberin 1633.36 6.551 0.153 1.221
MissBiggy 1762.71 6.652 0.150 1.203
amarganth 1630.60 7.029 0.142 1.138
Iceborg 1751.56 7.089 0.141 1.129
MND 1773.36 7.643 0.131 1.047
burper 1724.80 7.891 0.127 1.014
badspellr 1681.41 8.498 0.118 0.941
Spock 1810.89 8.859 0.113 0.903
diane 1665.24 9.062 0.110 0.883
Travis 1774.97 9.621 0.104 0.832
socksey 1605.41 11.915 0.084 0.671
Wallenstein 1549.02 14.838 0.067 0.539
leveler 1624.49 14.961 0.067 0.535
bekir 1627.82 15.887 0.063 0.504
elmroth 1620.01 17.024 0.059 0.470
HumanIAm 1665.57 17.776 0.056 0.450
wingtsun 1579.13 18.418 0.054 0.434
True_Blue 1516.51 18.425 0.054 0.434
donzaemon 1646.80 18.587 0.054 0.430
Leeze 1590.16 19.373 0.052 0.413
DirtyHarryII 1545.92 19.503 0.051 0.410
Rammot 1671.14 19.649 0.051 0.407
stacy 1514.45 20.164 0.050 0.397
sports_photog 1506.33 20.391 0.049 0.392
Matrasback 1509.14 21.166 0.047 0.378
grillbill 1491.99 23.775 0.042 0.336
aslengyel 1557.67 24.108 0.041 0.332
eggplant 1496.32 24.400 0.041 0.328
umutlabir 1551.77 25.662 0.039 0.312
noodle 1629.35 25.725 0.039 0.311
jinnate 1469.69 27.873 0.036 0.287
chopos 1479.96 28.239 0.035 0.283
Tomawaky 1661.03 28.697 0.035 0.279
houtx 1495.69 29.246 0.034 0.274
wood 1460.21 30.235 0.033 0.265
eskenazi 1465.88 82.162 0.012 0.097
TimDugan 1319.51 146.050 0.007 0.055
Frostie 1462.49 152.472 0.007 0.052
danjonas 1306.57 362.594 0.003 0.022
atias 1377.96 375.423 0.003 0.021
jkreed 1300.95 482.663 0.002 0.017
JimyB 1225.86 1394.258 0.001 0.006
Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 2087.229 0.000 0.004
Cass 1144.34 6874.553 0.000 0.001
ROUND 2 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
melzi 2002.68 1.351 0.740 2.960
Blotman 1843.24 1.498 0.668 2.670
JLee 1788.14 1.510 0.662 2.649
WooMets 1852.94 1.630 0.613 2.453
juanz 1674.19 1.788 0.559 2.237
EddieVedd 1753.96 2.020 0.495 1.980
hound_dog 1954.53 2.028 0.493 1.973
mOOse 1806.82 2.043 0.489 1.958
crille 1718.72 2.102 0.476 1.903
Val 1802.30 2.243 0.446 1.783
Slipshod 1747.11 2.287 0.437 1.749
alef 1801.99 2.462 0.406 1.625
MadMatt 1652.76 2.556 0.391 1.565
yes 1654.78 2.558 0.391 1.564
MND 1773.36 2.573 0.389 1.554
TheExecutioner 1771.49 2.747 0.364 1.456
crueger 1695.05 2.789 0.359 1.434
clay 1787.85 2.832 0.353 1.412
don 1726.22 2.852 0.351 1.403
Zauberin 1633.36 2.917 0.343 1.371
amarganth 1630.60 3.108 0.322 1.287
cowgirl 1636.10 3.202 0.312 1.249
mano 1721.58 3.242 0.308 1.234
MissBiggy 1762.71 3.285 0.304 1.218
burper 1724.80 3.439 0.291 1.163
badspellr 1681.41 3.484 0.287 1.148
Iceborg 1751.56 3.877 0.258 1.032
HumanIAm 1665.57 4.355 0.230 0.918
Spock 1810.89 4.681 0.214 0.855
diane 1665.24 4.681 0.214 0.855
socksey 1605.41 4.817 0.208 0.830
Rammot 1671.14 4.906 0.204 0.815
True_Blue 1516.51 4.955 0.202 0.807
sports_photog 1506.33 5.312 0.188 0.753
Wallenstein 1549.02 5.323 0.188 0.752
Travis 1774.97 5.567 0.180 0.719
noodle 1629.35 5.619 0.178 0.712
bekir 1627.82 6.156 0.162 0.650
aslengyel 1557.67 6.279 0.159 0.637
stacy 1514.45 6.301 0.159 0.635
elmroth 1620.01 6.474 0.154 0.618
umutlabir 1551.77 6.556 0.153 0.610
Matrasback 1509.14 6.776 0.148 0.590
eggplant 1496.32 7.215 0.139 0.554
wingtsun 1579.13 7.857 0.127 0.509
leveler 1624.49 7.959 0.126 0.503
donzaemon 1646.80 8.148 0.123 0.491
DirtyHarryII 1545.92 8.615 0.116 0.464
grillbill 1491.99 8.820 0.113 0.453
jinnate 1469.69 8.935 0.112 0.448
wood 1460.21 9.440 0.106 0.424
Leeze 1590.16 9.607 0.104 0.416
chopos 1479.96 10.137 0.099 0.395
houtx 1495.69 11.356 0.088 0.352
Tomawaky 1661.03 13.072 0.077 0.306
eskenazi 1465.88 18.041 0.055 0.222
TimDugan 1319.51 19.691 0.051 0.203
Frostie 1462.49 24.046 0.042 0.166
danjonas 1306.57 38.524 0.026 0.104
atias 1377.96 43.107 0.023 0.093
jkreed 1300.95 64.139 0.016 0.062
JimyB 1225.86 165.687 0.006 0.024
Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 259.138 0.004 0.015
Cass 1144.34 419.237 0.002 0.010
ROUND 1 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
melzi 2002.68 1.036 0.965 1.930
WooMets 1852.94 1.061 0.942 1.885
burper 1724.80 1.075 0.930 1.860
Blotman 1843.24 1.089 0.918 1.837
JLee 1788.14 1.117 0.896 1.791
mOOse 1806.82 1.148 0.871 1.743
juanz 1674.19 1.205 0.830 1.659
Val 1802.30 1.220 0.820 1.640
crille 1718.72 1.344 0.744 1.488
badspellr 1681.41 1.382 0.724 1.447
Slipshod 1747.11 1.406 0.711 1.422
crueger 1695.05 1.410 0.709 1.419
MadMatt 1652.76 1.425 0.702 1.404
yes 1654.78 1.438 0.695 1.391
TheExecutioner 1771.49 1.446 0.691 1.383
alef 1801.99 1.454 0.688 1.375
EddieVedd 1753.96 1.517 0.659 1.318
don 1726.22 1.519 0.658 1.316
cowgirl 1636.10 1.524 0.656 1.312
hound_dog 1954.53 1.526 0.655 1.310
Zauberin 1633.36 1.575 0.635 1.270
Travis 1774.97 1.604 0.623 1.247
Iceborg 1751.56 1.626 0.615 1.230
MND 1773.36 1.635 0.612 1.224
amarganth 1630.60 1.697 0.589 1.179
mano 1721.58 1.779 0.562 1.124
HumanIAm 1665.57 1.852 0.540 1.080
clay 1787.85 1.895 0.528 1.056
stacy 1514.45 1.923 0.520 1.040
True_Blue 1516.51 1.956 0.511 1.022
bekir 1627.82 1.969 0.508 1.016
aslengyel 1557.67 1.974 0.507 1.013
umutlabir 1551.77 2.027 0.493 0.987
elmroth 1620.01 2.032 0.492 0.984
sports_photog 1506.33 2.046 0.489 0.978
eggplant 1496.32 2.084 0.480 0.960
MissBiggy 1762.71 2.118 0.472 0.944
noodle 1629.35 2.174 0.460 0.920
diane 1665.24 2.284 0.438 0.876
Wallenstein 1549.02 2.435 0.411 0.821
Rammot 1671.14 2.576 0.388 0.776
donzaemon 1646.80 2.597 0.385 0.770
Tomawaky 1661.03 2.655 0.377 0.753
Matrasback 1509.14 2.738 0.365 0.730
Spock 1810.89 2.900 0.345 0.690
grillbill 1491.99 2.909 0.344 0.688
wingtsun 1579.13 2.926 0.342 0.684
socksey 1605.41 2.935 0.341 0.682
leveler 1624.49 3.202 0.312 0.625
Leeze 1590.16 3.241 0.309 0.617
jinnate 1469.69 3.282 0.305 0.609
wood 1460.21 3.354 0.298 0.596
houtx 1495.69 3.439 0.291 0.581
DirtyHarryII 1545.92 3.461 0.289 0.578
eskenazi 1465.88 3.620 0.276 0.553
chopos 1479.96 3.903 0.256 0.512
Frostie 1462.49 5.554 0.180 0.360
TimDugan 1319.51 5.869 0.170 0.341
atias 1377.96 7.773 0.129 0.257
danjonas 1306.57 9.578 0.104 0.209
jkreed 1300.95 12.259 0.082 0.163
Cass 1144.34 14.279 0.070 0.140
JimyB 1225.86 17.375 0.058 0.115
Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 28.590 0.035 0.070
First round have been completed
http://fibsleagammon.free.fr/flgty.htm (http://fibsleagammon.free.fr/flgty.htm)
I have converted Tourney #105 to the new system.
Since I had to do a lot of stuff by hand, please be on the lookout for any mistakes (hopefully I spelled all the participants' names correctly). Please let me know if anything goes wrong.
thanks matt I will take care