Game 2 Move 15 Forum to move 4-3

[ah_clem]

4-3?

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Yeah, this is probably a next, but I'm about ready to go to bed for the night and I don't think Schig is on line at the moment, so I'm going to leave the vote open til morning.  Night all.

[diane]

Goodnight 

[diane]

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Hmm, what I want to do really isnt there...I want to move that back piece forward to try and get him out of there....so then I dont want to leave a blot on the 13....so then - since the lovely full board isn't all that useful, I would rather move a blot in there...hence my choice would be..

23/21, 6/2

Can someone tell me why that is a bad idea 

[stog]

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i want to 5/1 5/2 (and i think the facilitator needs to gnu for move options if they are short of time

[ah_clem]

More options added.

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Our board is our best asset and it would be a mistake to start crunching it prematurely.

Exposing the runner to a double shot in the outfield is just asking to be hit.

It would be nice to hold the midpoint, but without any opponents checkers beyond his midpoint it's not so important as a resting spot.  Time for it to go.

13/9 13/10 seems so clear that I almost nexted it.  I'm glad I didn't since others want to vote for something different, but it still looks like the obvious move.

[ah_clem]

think the facilitator needs to gnu for move options if they are short of time

If I could do that without seeing the evaluations I would.  Otherwise, I'm going to do it by hand so that I'm not influenced by the bot results.  If the other players want other options it's not a problem to add them later.  I'm much more concerned about missing a cube vote since that's irreversible.

Also, if I use a bot to determine the candidate moves and everybody knows I'm using a bot to determine the candidate moves, then there's no need to look beyond the poll options - you'll know that if your move isn't on the list it's bad.  That gives away too much information - this way all you know about a missing move is that a ~1700 player overlooked or dismissed it.  You still have to think.  (c:

[adrian]

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I deleted the reply after ah-clem corrected the poll data.

[stog]

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thx clem

now we are going to have to decide -- do we run, move up? = no
give up our mid point?= not to we have to
break up our board a touch?= i think so --- how best to do it?; i think keep our 6 point so we can wait and hold up schig as long as we can..........

what think u others?

[ah_clem]

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23/21, 6/2
Can someone tell me why that is a bad idea  

Breaking the closed board is a blunder.  Schig will be forced to leave a shot with any roll other than doubles, 21, 23, and 35, and these last two give him such a terrible homeboard that he might look elsewhere if he rolls one of those.  If we can hit a shot with a closed board we're almost certain to win (not sure at this point if it would be too good to cash - I'll make that call when the time comes. ) - a shot with a blot on our 6 still gives him about a 1/3 chance to enter and hit.  I see our equity plummeting with a broken board.

The theme has been to hang back, build the board and wait for a shot or big running numbers.  Disturbing the board that we worked so hard to build undermines the basic theme of the situation, and by opening our 5 or 6 point we make it really hard to contain a checker if we send it back. Absent some immediate practical, tactical consideration here, I think preserving the board is priority one.

I'd be amenable to moving the runner up if there was a way to do so without leaving a second shot or breaking the board - after all, it does guard the outfield better from the 20.  But that's not worth breaking the board or leaving a shot on the midpoint.

[roadkillbooks]

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I love these situations. There is no way in the world that we should break our closed board.  Our closed board instills fear. It is a virtual guarantee that if we hot a shot we will win the game.  The psychological power of the closed board should not be underestimated. I dont want to run with 2 from the midpoint. Although looking at the race and consider that we can run with both 5 and 6.  I would guess that the computer would call 13/10, 13/9 the correct play... actually im sure of it.  We are too good in the race and we still have shot potential from our blot.  Crunching the board hurts our racing chances and destroys are shot equity considerably. Generally these ploy plays of leaving a point on the mid point are correct if further behind in the race and the opponents board is even in worse shape (say no threatening to make the 2 point). So im changing my vote now to 13/9, 13/10-  i would not block the other play though because i like them... even though at times it is a weakness of mine.  In all id say leaving a blt on the midpoint is 5% error.

[dorbel]

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This is absurd.

Hmm, what I want to do really isnt there...I want to move that back piece forward to try and get him out of there....so then I dont want to leave a blot on the 13....so then - since the lovely full board isn't all that useful, I would rather move a blot in there...hence my choice would be..

23/21, 6/2

Why do you want to "try and get him out of there"? He's a bloody nuisance where he is! The lovely full board isnt all that useful? What? We are trying to hit a shot! 13/9, 13/10 is as Palin as the nose on your face, except to those who treat breaking the midpoint as akin to spitting on a crucifix. It wastes no pips, keeps the board and keeps the pressure on.

[ah_clem]

rollout

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A surprisingly close result and certainly not a next.  Running from the midpoint is best, but getting the runner moving and breaking the closed board is very close - not the "blunder" I thought it was. 



    1. Rollout          13/10 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.052
       0.408 0.023 0.001 - 0.592 0.007 0.000 CL  -0.157 CF  -0.052
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    2. Rollout          23/20 6/2                    Eq.:  -0.066 ( -0.014)
       0.402 0.036 0.000 - 0.598 0.037 0.000 CL  -0.193 CF  -0.066
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    3. Rollout          6/3 6/2                      Eq.:  -0.078 ( -0.025)
       0.395 0.020 0.000 - 0.605 0.025 0.000 CL  -0.220 CF  -0.078
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    4. Rollout          23/20 5/1                    Eq.:  -0.084 ( -0.032)
       0.396 0.044 0.001 - 0.604 0.042 0.000 CL  -0.205 CF  -0.084
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    5. Rollout          23/20 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.101 ( -0.049)
       0.399 0.042 0.002 - 0.601 0.038 0.001 CL  -0.198 CF  -0.101
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    6. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  -0.124 ( -0.071)
       0.397 0.029 0.002 - 0.603 0.036 0.001 CL  -0.215 CF  -0.124
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840571151 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[diane]

So, I wasnt wildly wrong 

[dorbel]

No, not a bad play at all, big surprise to me! I mean big surprise that the play does well in the rollout, not a big surprise that you chose it of course! Good pick.

[dorbel]

I wonder if we can say why Diane's unorthodox play works almost as well as the conventional keep-the-board approach? Moving up to the 20pt has two things going for it. We can run clear next turn with 6-5, 6-4 and 6-3, smashing racing numbers that might otherwise still leave a shot and perhaps more importantly we avoid the 2-1 superjoker that is Red's best roll if we stay back and worst if we move up. This huge swing brings moving up almost level to the match play, certainly close enough to be considered as good I would say, but not superior.

[roadkillbooks]

well moving up is better.. the 24/20part.  And then keeping the bar is the best of both worlds.  If we do this we are ignoring in a sense the equity drop of breaking our board.  We also hope that we will remake the board.  7 do cover.  It would br interesting to see if a status quo roll be schig follwed by a seven by us.  Is the correct play to then make the 6 point?  I guess it might ..well depends on the race.  Our board is still better (5 pt vs 4 pts) and less numbers point on our head.  In practicality i do like the play as much because the psychological fctor of a closed board is very powerful.  5 point boards.. we "know" we can roll our number... ok 1-6 is pushing it.. but 2-5 is easy ....

but a 6 point board....game over..shoove another quarter into the machine.