Game 2 Move 12 Forum to move 3-2

[ah_clem]

Forum to move 3-2.  Have at it.

BTW, I haven't been looking at any bot evaluations since returning, so I'm making the decision to roll without mechanical help.  If anybody thinks we are getting close to a possible double, PM me and I'll pause for a cube vote before rolling. 

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

An interesting play from our opponent.  He's abandoned the 17 point, which stood 6 points away from our runner and this gives us many more escaping rolls.  By giving this point up he gains another point in his home board which will come in handy if he can hit our runner.  My best guess is that this moves wins fewer games but wins more gammons. I would have kept the 17 point, but I'm not as good a player as him so what do I know.

With the door open to run here, should we?  The race is reasonably close, so had we rolled big numbers I would have voted to vamoose.  But we didn't, we've got a 3-2 to play.

Moving up to the 18 is suicide.  Moving up to the 20 allows us a few more escaping numbers without seeming to increase the liklihood of us being hit.  I say "seeming" because if we use the 3 to make our five point he'll have to think twice before hitting loose in his homeboard.  

So, making the 5 is a defensive move in addition to being an offensive move.  I think it's clear that the three should be played that way.  Where to play the 2?  Might as well unstack the 6, although playing the second checker from the 8 isn't so bad.

8/5 6/2 8/5 6/4

[close]

[adrian]

8/5 6/2

8/5 6/4, right?   

[ah_clem]

8/5 6/4, right?   

Correct.

[roadkillbooks]

i dont want to move to the 20 point.  After we make our 5 point with the 3.. schig is a lot less likely to hot loose on the 2 point.. and even if he does we would then have 2 good return numbers.. the 2 to hit and the 5 to bail.  I was almost inclined to play 8/5, 8/6 but since the votes are close i wanted to close rank against moving up. 8/5, 8/6 give a bit less flexibility but it does give us another crossover and our main goal here is to just win the race.  Since a huge stack on the 6 point isnt great though the 6/4 is fine...

and sorry i cant takeover now at all.  Im onehanded at the moment and it slows me down for writing on the comp. Luckily playing bg is just as easy.

[Schigolch]

First of all, I tried to play it as safe as possible. I think my play results in fewer bad rolls next roll. This was the astonishing result of my listing of the possible next rolls, everything else being equal in the relevant part of the board. Plus I make a valuable point in my homeboard. Not sure whether it gives me more gammons or less wins, b/c as you correctly stated, I opened the way for you to run with a good roll (allthough you have full safety only with 64 in addition to a 55 you had else. I think clearing the 18-point has been mandatory, because it becomes a liability once I'm leading the race after the move. So that's the trade-off I had to face: Better possibilities for you to run vs safety and an additional point in my homeboard.
I wonder as much as clem whether I've got that move right.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

    1. Rollout          8/5 6/4                      Eq.:  -0.182
       0.359 0.038 0.001 - 0.641 0.038 0.000 CL  -0.282 CF  -0.182
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          8/6 8/5                      Eq.:  -0.204 ( -0.022)
       0.347 0.034 0.002 - 0.653 0.035 0.000 CL  -0.310 CF  -0.204
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    3. Rollout          23/20 6/4                    Eq.:  -0.268 ( -0.086)
       0.348 0.072 0.004 - 0.652 0.107 0.001 CL  -0.373 CF  -0.268
      [0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]

    4. Rollout          6/4 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.274 ( -0.092)
       0.337 0.042 0.002 - 0.663 0.070 0.000 CL  -0.373 CF  -0.274
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    5. Rollout          8/3                          Eq.:  -0.288 ( -0.106)
       0.331 0.047 0.002 - 0.669 0.077 0.001 CL  -0.387 CF  -0.288
      [0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.005]

    6. Rollout          6/4 5/2                      Eq.:  -0.295 ( -0.113)
       0.333 0.045 0.002 - 0.667 0.076 0.001 CL  -0.393 CF  -0.295
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 838902276 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
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