Game 4 Move 12 Forum to move 54

[roadkillbooks]

Hey sorry about the delay..last evening there was no internet here.  Forum to move 54.
Blitzxz 2- Forum 1 to 5

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We have a three point board and he has a one point board.  We're about 40 pips behind in the race.  That would seem to indicate that hitting is the right idea, and once we've hit with 13/8, it seems natural to bring down the second checker from the midpoint with 13/9.

"But this isn't a normal position. We have a very divided army and keeping them in communication is of strategic value.  That notion leads us to play something like 24/15, bringing our trailer into the middle of the pack.  The idea here is that it's too early to spring our backgame trap, let's let him come to us and be forced to play awkwardly against our points in his territory."

How convincing is that?  Well I haven't convinced myself, so I don't expect to convince anyone else.

We have to hit.  If we let one checker escape, we will have a hard time containing the second.  Our best strategy seems to be to trap two of his checkers and then watch as he has to abandon the outfield and give us clear sailing to bring the rest of our men around.  The resulting blots on the 9 and 8 gives us a good chance to improve our blockade (any 1 or a 5-4 does the trick).  I'm not too concerned about abandoning the midpoint, since the 15 serves as a good stand-in.

So 13/8* 13/9 for me.

The other move I'd consider is 13/8* 24/20, but I like bringing down both men.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

So far, everybody who's voted agrees to hit with the 5.  Let's look at whether to  play the 4 by (A) moving our backman up or ( B ) bringing down the second checker from the midpoint.

(A) pro: it keeps our checkers in communication and starts the runner in the right direction.  It prevents him from hitting us on the 1 point.
con: it leaves a blot on the midpoint that he can hit now.

( B ) pro: it safetys the blot on the midpoint.  It brings two builders to bear on the 8, 7 and 4 points, any of which would be desirable (the other play doesn't threaten to make the 4) He's not going to hit our ace point blot any time soon, so no need to worry about that.  
con: it abandons the midpoint and separates our checkers.

My take is that ( B ) is better by a slim margin, but I'm ok with the other play.  Other viewpoints?

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[roadkillbooks]

My guess is that both of these plays are close. I dont see being hit on the midpoint point with 13/8*, 24/20 as a true con.  There are only five return hit numbers on the midpoint and if we are hit we don't really care.  I agree that the 15 point can take the functional place from the midpoint and I think it is probably better under several scenarios... that's why it my pick.  The only negative is that to cover next tuen we may have to break the 15 point.  I also think that the quadruple blot play isnt that bad.. 13/8*, 15/11  It gives us the freedom to do what we want and and even more massive back game if it fails. actually although I dont think that its technically the best play.. I think in this case it may be good because not all humans or bots  play against massive back games that well.  So im changing to 13/8*, 15/11. I think the most prob scenarion is an exchange of hits and it has the best shot to add another outfield point like the 8 or the bar.

[diane]

Spoiler

I went with moving the one off the 24, but could be persuaded to moving the 4 off the 13 too..I certainly did think about that - as more ammo is required in the near future...

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[roadkillbooks]

ok I changed my vote.  Mainly because it wasnt going to win and Id rather campaign for my sceond choice which seems like the best tactical option of them all......

Spoiler

13/8*, 13/9.. We should bring ammo down and we shouldnt be worried about getting pieces sent back. The best thing we can do is build the best board possible.  We are behind in the race but we are in control on whats going on here.  We can essentially do as we please and as long as we dont burn checkers we are good.  I say bring 2 down and try for another point on our side of the board (preferably inner)

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[dorbel]

I voted for 24/20, 13/8*, to try and get the back checker into the game, but perhaps that is too softly softly and I am persuaded by 13/8*, 13/9. It gives us that magic 5-4, more loose hits if he enters without escaping or anchoring and a double slot in the outfield.