Match 1, Game 3, Move 16, Forum

[blitzxz]

1-4?

Score:
Green(forum) 2, White(factotum) 0, match to 5

Pips:
Green 87 White 138

GnuID
bFdgBgO3sRkYAA:UgmmAAAAEAAA

[diane]

Spoiler

I am a big fan of not taking risks if I don't have to - at a time like this, when one good roll would sort us out if we get it next time.  Therefore, 7-6, 7-3 for me...and cross my fingers that either facts next roll is bad, or ours is good...

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[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

Usually clearing the 7 point would be the thing to do here, playing safe, may be getting doubles next turn.

But here factotum has opened his 6 point and only having a 3 point board while we have a 4 point board. This would allow us to play the bolder move of 9/4. If we are hit then our 6es are duplicated and only with 6-6 we can hit back on the 9.But may be we will get some more shots on second checker, depending on what he rolls.

Difficult thing...may be we don't need to leave a shot at all..if we have to do then better to leave it now than later, when factotums board will be stronger.

I'll go for the bolder one:

9/4

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[lewscannon]

Spoiler

I'm voting for the 7-6 7-3. Factotum needs a pretty good roll to be able to cover his 6 and not open something else and I'd like to be in a position to pounce if it doesn't work out for him.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Pay now or pay later? 

Paying later is my first instinct, but I see that there are no numbers that force him to leave a shot next roll.  Meanwhile, his board is not particularly strong.

OTOH, if we play 9/4 only a roll of 41 is really bad for us.  42 and 43 allow him to hit and safety his blot on the six, putting us on the bar against a three point board with a juicy blot on the 7 - not too bad.  All other hitting rolls  (44 45 46 31) leave a blot in the board.

I say pay  now.  Clearing the seven point, while safe, just makes it more likely we'll leave a blot staring at a four point board (or worse).  9/4 will be easy to clean up if he misses.

9/4

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

factotum's homeboard might allow us to play a bolder move, but obviously there's still significant risk involved in blotting here, so the gain must be there. I don't really see the gain from 9/4, it's the 15pt we want to clear first. Breaking the nine does two bad things: we need to clean up the blot next turn if it doesn't get hit, which might spoil an otherwise great roll for us; and we remove the only direct landing spot for the checkers on 15. So definitely 7/6 7/3 here for me, not because I want to play safe per se but because there isn't a really constructive alternative.

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[playBunny]

My post is the same as Zorba's but with a bunny accent.

[roadkillbooks]

 :steam:javascript:void(0);

Spoiler

I dont see this as a pay now or pay later.  This can and will most likely get messy. I would not leave a shot here at all.  I personally dont think this is even close.  What is that 13 hit numbers? Plus next turn we have to focus on cleaning up the blot if it's not hit.  Blots are going to be left on both sides..we dont have to go first. 

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[gumpi]

7/6, 7/3 for me, just clear a point without leaving a blot.  both positions are brittle and stripped, just wait one roll who's blotting first.

[Zorba]

GnuBG 2-ply rollout:

Spoiler

Pretty close, probably because factotum's hits are often uncomfortable and not very powerful. Still, it's hard to see much advantage to breaking the 9pt, other than perhaps slotting our fourpoint.


    1. Rollout          7/6 7/3                      Eq.:  +0,0640
        55,92  18,84   0,58 -  44,08   8,19   1,12 CL  +0,0640
      [  0,14   0,47   0,16 -   0,14   0,18   0,23 CL   0,0030]
        Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeless prune
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune
    2. Rollout          9/4                          Eq.:  +0,0410 ( -0,0230)
        55,79  22,90   0,63 -  44,21  11,27   1,50 CL  +0,0410
      [  0,17   0,46   0,13 -   0,17   0,20   0,24 CL   0,0039]
        Full cubeless rollout (trunc. at one-sided bearoff) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859211562 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeless prune
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,1
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune

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