Game 2, move 9, roadkillbooks doubles, Forum?

[Zorba]

roadkillbooks (white) doubles to 2, Forum (blue)?

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[diane]

Spoiler

After all my previous comments, now we face the music, and I am ready for it, I take 

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Pass. I count 10 bad rolls for factotum: 6-1, 5-4, 5-2, 5-1, 4-1. And even in those factotum is surely a big favorite to win. We need to get out from bar and hopefully hit also. In most other rolls I think we're trampled. There are some gammons lurking also so we would be risking the whole match here. 2-0 isn't that bad. Race lead is big for us but I don't see how we could take advantage of it. To me double came one move too late.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

PASS This is one of the market losing sequences I was talking about in rkb's last cube decision.   15 rolls point on the head of the blot in his homeboard giving a 4 point board with  a checker on the bar.  With another blot hanging around, gammons are a big factor.  The blot in our homeboard gives him extra incentive to blitz.  Let's take the loss now and try again next game.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Pass. I count 10 bad rolls for factotum: 6-1, 5-4, 5-2, 5-1, 4-1.

Those aren't bad rolls.  Those are ok rolls, in contrast to all the others which are excellent rolls. He has no bad rolls here. Which is why I say pass. 26/36 rolls (~75%) he puts us away and threatens gammon. The other 10 we have a chance to escape with 65 55 or 45 (5 out of 36 or about 14%)  What does that make our winning chances?  Add in the fact that a gammon means we lose the match and I don't want to take the cube.

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Those aren't bad rolls.  Those are ok rolls, in contrast to all the others which are excellent rolls. He has no bad rolls here. Which is why I say pass. 26/36 rolls (~75%) he puts us away and threatens gammon. The other 10 we have a chance to escape with 65 55 or 45 (5 out of 36 or about 14%)  What does that make our winning chances?  Add in the fact that a gammon means we lose the match and I don't want to take the cube.

"Bad" is relative... I don't think those are truly bad but the worst here which is not bad at all.  I would by the way guess that rkb has 70-80 % winning chances and 15-20 % gammon chances... It's big pass in my mind too.

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[diane]

Spoiler

Who were the other 'take' voters, I would like to hear their reasoning - since it seems I am alone here, in everything except the vote - where it is almost equal    Maybe we can persuade some minds to be changed.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

This sure looks very scary. All sorts of rolls point on us, others double hit and I guess every roll actually hits us, even if it's just a loose hit. We should have some decent winning chances though. We're far ahead in the race, so even if we get slapped around a bit, just one escaping number at some point and we're instant (strong) favourites. rkb made his acepoint already, which means he's got only 13 checkers left to contain us with, not an easy task usually, although he's well positioned.

Also, we got a strong homeboard ourselves, if we return-hit rkb he'll dance nearly 50% of the time, so that gives some opportunities. Anytime rkb hits loose we get a direct shot from the bar, other times we may get (several) indirects from the bar.

Then there's the gammon losses to worry about, there's a fair chance we'll get closed out, sometimes with two checkers.

How does it all add up? I found it a tough decision, but I passed. The roads that lead to a win seem very difficult, depending on some lucky parlays. And there's a considerable gammon risk, which is end of match at this score and highly efficient for rkb.

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[socksey]

Spoiler

I'm counting on he rolls even numbers and our strong outer board contains him.     I voted take.  If he does hit us, we've still got a 50 50 chance of getting back in and we still have that strong outer board that he has to maneuver through.    

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socksey



"Conscience is the inner voice that warns us that someone might be looking." - Henry Louis Mencken

[socksey]

Spoiler

I don't do equities.     I just count the advantages and decide by "look and feel".   

[close]

Now we need a tie breaker to decide.    

Hey, fibsboard wouldn't allow me to edit my first post this time.  What's up with that?   

socksey



There is nothing that cannot be done if we raise our voice as one. - Michael Jackson

[stog]

if you wish to change your poll choice and can't please try again, as rkb's mates have been hitting the take button  

[ah_clem]

Now we need a tie breaker to decide.    

How about this - nobody voting "take" bothered to explain their reasoning except diane, and what she said isn't really a "reason".

So, were this a choette, the captain would make the call, based on which choice is based on the best argument.  I think that's a reasonable course here, assuming the vote is still tied at the end of the voting period.

Note that a binary-decision (take-pass, double-no double) is unlikely to be resolved with an extended period.  For a checker play, the votes may be spread out amongst several moves and extending the voting period allows the people who voted for the third, fourth, etc. move to change their vote to one of the top two.  That's not the case with a take decision.

[playBunny]

if you wish to change your poll choice and can't please try again

Actually I do want to change my vote but there's no option to do so. I've got a rollout and so don't want to be voting on this one. I only voted to see which way the poll was going, intending to immediately remove it. Now my vote is stuck.

[stog]

how many want to change their vote, and more importantly from what to what?

[Zorba]

Spoiler

I'm counting on he rolls even numbers and our strong outer board contains him.    I voted take.  If he does hit us, we've still got a 50 50 chance of getting back in and we still have that strong outer board that he has to maneuver through.    

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socks,did you notice we're blue? it's rkb with the strong blockade...

[Zorba]

If you want to change your vote, try again, it should work I think.

Personally, I'd recommend making your own decision, think about it as long as you think you need, then vote. I'm not sure changing the votes later is beneficial to the OLM, after all, isn't learning more important here than winning? The downside of changing your vote later is that you may never really make the decision yourself, and bascially let others (or bots even) decide for you. In my experience, you learn most by doing the best you can on your own, voting, explaining your move if you want, and then (sometimes) find out you were horribly wrong. Maybe it hurts to be very wrong, but that's when you might learn something you won't forget. Also, you might be right sometimes when everyone disagrees with you, and by changing your vote, you'll lose that great moment. 

[roadkillbooks]

I also don't think voting should be extended.  Two days to vote is sufficient.  We obviously want lots of people to participate but we also want this to remain dynamic for those that are participating regularly.  Im also curious to how the vote is going.  I take from the posts that there is a tie.  Playbunny says he wants to change his vote....or remove/recuse herhimself becausee she/he say the rollout.....

Ive just been shaking the dice for several days now and I want to let them fly in this game or the next.

[playBunny]

If you want to change your vote, try again, it should work I think.

Thanks.

Personally, I'd recommend making your own decision,

I agree - except when the vote is deadlocked.

I'm not sure changing the votes later is beneficial to the OLM

Wikipedia: The olm, or proteus (Proteus anguinus), is a blind amphibian endemic to the subterranean waters of caves of the Dinaric karst of southern Europe.

I think it depends on what's being voted for. If it's the use of the olm's caves as a source of drinking water and the deplection rate would be greater than the refill rate then a change of heart followed by a change of vote could be very beneficial to the olm. 

In my experience, you learn most by ....

Yep, I agree with this, too.

I also don't think voting should be extended.  Two days to vote is sufficient.

Vote extensions are only necessary when the vote is tied. An extension for further discussion is more satisfying than having the vote decided randomly, especially for any who were happy to change their vote in the opposite direction to the forced decision.

[diane]

if you wish to change your poll choice and can't please try again, as rkb's mates have been hitting the take button  

I do think being able to change your mind is critical here. 
That is what is different about playing this match - we are learning from it.  We say what we think and others state their case.  If we can see the logic behind the opposite or different view and change our mind to the better decision - that is how we will learn..
Doing what we have always done and sticking with it teaches no one anything...

And it is precisely because it isn't about winning, but about learning, that we have all this discussion and then the rollout discussion post move.  If we can't respond to the discussion, then why bother?

In the event of a tied vote, then it is even more important - we need a way to make our decision without coin flips.  I am not sure a great deal of time extension is necessary, but changing votes according to how the team members have debated should be the way to get by the deadlocks.

[socksey]

socks,did you notice we're blue? it's rkb with the strong blockade...

Yes, but if he rolls even dice, he prolly won't hit us.  That's what I mean.     I stand by my original vote.   

socksey



They say the sky's the limit, and to me that is really true. - Michael Jackson