Game 3, move 4, Forum 5-3

[Zorba]

Forum (blue) No Double, 5-3 to play:

jGfwADSMZ+EBUA:cImuACAAAAAA

[stog]

Spoiler

B/20 13/10 to enable and give us a chance to build...6/3 is nice as it gives us a chance to make the 2point, but do we want the 2?, we could play safe and tidy up, but we r 2-0 down and need to pressure; if we are hit, rkb's board is not yet fearful so i advocate leaving this extra blot, which can only be hit indirectly

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[diane]

Spoiler

Wow, placing my vote reveals 4 players have 4 different opinions here already
Ok - well here is why I disagree with stog's 13-10 - and of course we are only talking about where the 3 goes, I am totally happy with the bar 20 part of it  .  

13-10 is another blot, making 4 in total. As RKB stated in the last move that is just too many - and RKB hasnt even got anything on the bar!! Then 9-6 - nope, it just stacks and adds nothing to what we have here. So, 6-3 or 24-21 left... hmmm 6-3 is ok...but goes a bit too deep too early, ooer missus... Thus leaving only 24-21.

Hence my choice of 24-21, it will move us forward and doesn't add any extra blots. If we get hit on either 20 or 21, we can hope to anchor on the other one - or use the blots to cover RKB bringing down those all important men he talked about in the last move.  He needs blots in his outer board - and we need to catch them  

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Bar/20 is forced.  Where to take the 3?  I don't like stacking another checker on the 6.  A spare on the three doesn't buy us much.  So I narrow the choice to 13/10 or 24/21:

Bringing down another builder with 13/10 looks ok - it puts pressure on the board and makes it likely that we'll make a valuable.point in a roll or two. But, with the split backmen a second outfield blot is perhaps not such a good idea. 

24/21 is more cautious in the sense that we don't leave another blot.  Being ahead in the race makes me want to err on the side of safe play.  OTOH, being behind in the match makes me want to play boldly.  13/10 is certainly the bolder play.

rkb doesn't have much of a board, so let's go for it.  13/10

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[roadkillbooks]

hmm  my choice of 24/20, 8/5 isn't even on the list.

[playBunny]

hmm  my choice of 24/20, 8/5 isn't even on the list.

I'm sure it's on GnuBg's list though  - as Awful!

Spoiler

Moves like 6/3 are almost always frowned on by GnuBg when the piece gets put past where it belongs, which is the 5-point or the 4-point.

9/6 is tidy and safe and it's not too bad a stack, given that it's topping up the 6-point to its original 5. I don't care for that, though.

13/10 is nice and aggressive and if killroadblocks's three men can be contained then there could be a juicy sizzle of cubed gammon in the air. I don't care for the risk though. If we get hit then it's goodbye to out generous pip lead.

24/21 is the racing move. Generally I don't like having two blots on the opponent's high home points but I think the risk is less than that of 13/10, mainly because the 8-point is stripped (although 4-4 would be a very unfunny joker, a joker which gives added value to the 9/6 safety move).

Overall I'm in favour of racing and keeping down the blot count without being completely driven by safety-mindedness.

bar/20, 24/21

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[diane]

hmm  my choice of 24/20, 8/5 isn't even on the list.

I just can't see that - can you write a detailed explanation of the advantages of that move for me please....

 

[roadkillbooks]

For me the advantages are clear...forum could take advantage of my weaker board by offering multiple shots and getting into a viable backgame.  Although this would be better at a 3-0 score, the forum could then double me and I wouldnt be able to take advantage of any gammons.

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

I've been on vacation for the last 2 weeks and see that the forum team has slacked off badly in my absence, especially as far as my dice generator is concerned. I will resume rolling duties going forward. In the meantime, I would recommend not leaving more blots than necessary and wouldn't mind moving the 6-3, so as to maybe get some shots in at the 3 pieces roadie has in our home board. He will be attacking our blot on the 5 point if he has any chance at it, and I don't want to leave a lot of strays to turn this into a rout.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

He will be attacking our blot on the 5 point if he has any chance at it

attacking? With what?  He's got a stripped eight point and no builders.  Unless he rolls 31 or 11 he's hitting loose at best.

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[Zorba]

Spoiler

rkb now has backcheckers on 24 and 23, similar to an opponent that splitted with a 1. The result is that his indirect shots in our outfield are doubled. The blot on 9 gets hit with sevens and eights, which adds up to 11 shots, already the same as a direct 1-shot. Playing 13/10 adds nines as hitters, and leaves rkb quite a few hitting numbers. Also, if there's anything rkb would like to do here, it is to get his three backcheckers moving. Giving him targets to do so in realtive safety seems wrong to me.

6/3 is just bad technique here, the spare on 3 would have almost no place to go, and especially with the made threepoint, we should be focussing on the higher points. Worst alternative because of the inflexibility and wrong priorities.

So, the choice is between 24/21 and 9/6. They both have some pluses and minuses, 24/21 gives rkb more to attack, and even if it's just a loose hit, it would mean that our builder on the 9pt won't get used, and is more of an extra target actually. But with rkb's stripped eightpoint, the risk of this play is not that high. It does prepare well for a high anchor, or to run a checker, both of which are good with our race lead.

9/6 also leaves the backcheckers in a good position, the 24,20 split is valuable. It takes away 11 shot hitting numbers, which is pretty valuable considering that rkb wants to move those backmen. The downside is obvious: it takes away the builder and stacks it on our 6. Since our 5 and 4 are open, the checkers on 6 will probably find their way, so I'm not too bothered by putting 5 men there. Losing the builder hurts a bit though, but at least we still have the eightpoint.

Tough choice, I picked 9/6 under the motto of KISS (keep it simple, stupid)! We got our advantage, let's not spoil that by offering targets.

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[socksey]

Spoiler

I like 6/3 here just because of the 2 pt waiting to be hit.  It seems the only logical move to me and at least one someone agrees with me.   

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So there!   

socksey



"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd." - Voltaire

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

attacking? With what?  He's got a stripped eight point and no builders.  Unless he rolls 31 or 11 he's hitting loose at best.

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Spoiler

With any kind of roll that makes sense, even if hitting loose (lews?) and especially if he can hit twice somehow. He has the beginnings of a good back game going here if that fails. This is what I'd be looking to do if I were him.

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Both 9/6 and 6/3 looks unnatural and supersafe. I would do these moves only if we had already escaped both checkers. I voted for most natural 13/10 but I didn't realise that it leaves so many shots like Zorba said. So that leaves only 24/21 which leaves more attack chances. Differences can't be big here. Nothing looks very good.

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[PersianLord]

Spoiler

13/10. we need more builders while his board is not too strong.

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[Zorba]

Well, this is a very interesting vote. Right now it's tied with two moves at 4 votes, one 3 and one 2.

If there will be a tie, I think a decent solution might be to pick the move that got all its votes (4 right now) first, if I know which play that was (for now, I know) 

[playBunny]

Well, this is a very interesting vote. Right now it's tied with two moves at 4 votes, one 3 and one 2.

If there will be a tie, I think a decent solution might be to pick the move that got all its votes (4 right now) first, if I know which play that was (for now, I know) 

I'd rather there be a brief pause while

Spoiler

we persuade some 6/3s to go for 24/21! 

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[diane]

Spoiler

Since 24-21 now has 5, 1 ahead of the nearest, I am gonna hush my mouth and cross my fingers   

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

What would a good player do here? Not play 6-3 for sure. The spares on the 6pt are for making the 5 and 4pts. 9/6 is surely too tame; restacking an already fat point is occasionally right when you already have a good position that can come home fairly easily as it stands, but that isn't the case here. 13/10 looks too big to me, four blots is a lot of weight to carry at a time when the opponent is keen to hit. Here it gives him good 6-3 and 5-4, numbers that are not very good otherwise. This just leaves 24/21, which is quite reasonable. I vote for that.

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[ah_clem]

If there will be a tie, I think a decent solution might be to pick the move that got all its votes (4 right now) first, if I know which play that was (for now, I know)

Hmmm. Early votes count extra?  I don't think that's a good idea.

My suggestion on what to do if it's tied (and it looks like this one isn't going to be):

either
A) have a short run-off period where those who voted for the third and lower choices are encouraged to change their vote to one of the top two.
or
the moderator/facilitator (Zorba in this match) makes the call, based on the reasoning presented in the comments.

Flipping a coin, or giving extra weight to early votes is not a good way to settle it.

With cube decisions, I'd suggest a tie is no-double.  For take decisions, a tie is no-take.  i.e. you need a majority to make or accept a double.