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TL5 Predictions

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Offline sixty_something

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TL5 Predictions
« on: February 03, 2008, 02:18:57 PM »
[Gary collapses from exhaustion at the Snail Race in front of SpongeBob SquarePants (SBSP)]
SBSP: Oh Gary, I'm sorry! Why didn't you just say I was pushing you too hard?
Gary: Meow.
SBSP: You did? Oh Gary! Why didn't you tell me I wasn't listening?
Gary: Meow.
SBSP: You did?
The Great Snail Race/Mid-Life Crustacean episode from SpongeBob SquarePants TV cartoon series

Sluts and Snails Locking Up First and Second

A Fast Start

Aesop’s fable “The Tortoise and the Hare” is a great example of metaphor in describing a race .. Aesop had his turtle and rabbit, we have our Sluts and Snails .. it's beginning to look as if only a few teams can catch them in the race for first or second unless they stumble badly

as of yesterday, day 18 in a 44 day season, a little more than two-thirds of all matches have been completed in less than three weeks of actual play .. almost all teams have broken fast in played matches and the race is approaching the clubhouse turn

The Playoff Race

according to my first simulation run of the season, three teams, Cube Sluts, Racing Snails, and Rigged Dice, all have better than a 90% chance to make the new six team playoff .. Cube Sluts, winner of the first three TL seasons,  are also strong favorites to win again this season at 1:2 odds .. only the Racing Snails are making it a race for a first place finish .. a first or second place finish assures the top two teams a bye in the first round of the playoffs .. the first place team will face the 4th or 6th place team in round 2, while the second place team will face either the 3rd or 5th place team .. schigstogsedat, Sixty and the Pips, and Take The Money And Run round out the playoff qualifiers, according to the simulation

Club Voodoo, defending champs from season four, Virtual Addictss, Ottoman's Empire, and Axe Wound lead the pack of contenders for the playoffs trailing only a length or so behind Take the Money and Run in sixth

according to the simulation, two teams have been eliminated from chances of making the playoffs, two chicks and a dick and Dracula's Sons .. better luck next time, but if past history is any indicator either or both of these teams can still be a big factor in determining the final outcome of the season .. as Willie sings in 'Yesterday's Wine', "Miracles occur in the strangest of places .."

TL5 is off to a great start .. i'll be posting results here regularly, hopefully daily, keep checking for the latest predictions

Simulation Results
 
with 67.3% of the season completed 345 matches have been played,only 168 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 6,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are based on a 6 team playoff format

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.5
,
---
Cube Sluts,
25 / 52
,
27 / 44
,
4/9
,
68.2%
,
1:2
,
99.8%
,
1:461
2.3
,
0.8
Racing Snails,
36 / 48
,
28 / 37
,
---
,
18.7%
,
4:1
,
99.9%
,
1:857
3.5
,
2.0
Rigged Dice,
30 / 48
,
24 / 40
,
2/6
,
6.9%
,
14:1
,
93.9%
,
1:16
4.8
,
3.3
schigstogsedat,
18 / 48
,
22 / 40
,
6/10
,
4.9%
,
20:1
,
78.2%
,
1:4
5.8
,
4.3
Sixty and the Pips,
26 / 44
,
23 / 36
,
4/6
,
0.2%
,
569:1
,
69.9%
,
1:2
7.9
,
6.4
Take The Money And Run,
23 / 44
,
19 / 36
,
5/7
,
0.2%
,
533:1
,
36.6%
,
2:1
8.4
,
6.9
,  Club Voodoo,
27 / 42
,
19 / 32
,
3/5
,
-
,
-
,
27.1%
,
3:1
8.9
,
7.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
6 / 48
,
11 / 41
,
10/14
,
0.4%
,
224:1
,
30.8%
,
2:1
9.0
,
7.5
,  Ottoman's Empire,
25 / 40
,
19 / 33
,
4/5
,
-
,
-
,
17.2%
,
5:1
9.6
,
8.1
,  Axe Wound,
21 / 42
,
21 / 34
,
5/7
,
-
,
-
,
17.9%
,
5:1
9.8
,
8.3
,  DG on FIBS,
4 / 52
,
8 / 46
,
11/16
,
0.7%
,
153:1
,
25.5%
,
3:1
11.7
,
10.2
,  Elect Lakish In '08,
11 / 44
,
13 / 36
,
9/11
,
-
,
-
,
9.9%
,
9:1
11.9
,
10.4
,  UN Trio,
29 / 38
,
21 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
1.4%
,
70:1
12.5
,
11.0
,  Buds 'n Brat,
17 / 44
,
17 / 37
,
7/9
,
-
,
-
,
5.0%
,
19:1
14.8
,
13.3
,  Hopano,
19 / 40
,
17 / 31
,
6/7
,
-
,
-
,
0.7%
,
149:1
14.8
,
13.3
,  The Team With No Name,
18 / 42
,
13 / 32
,
6/8
,
-
,
-
,
0.6%
,
171:1
15.6
,
14.1
,  two homos and a phobe,
11 / 44
,
13 / 37
,
9/11
,
-
,
-
,
0.5%
,
193:1
16.5
,
15.0
,  two chicks and a dick,
24 / 36
,
15 / 31
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
18.4
,
16.9
,  Dracula's Sons,
18 / 36
,
15 / 26
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Metrics

last season, i developed a stochastic simulation model using current results and position by position match ups for unplayed games with the probability of winning weighted by FIBS rating to predict the order of finish in TL season 4 .. it worked well and the model predicted the winner, Club Voodoo, over two weeks before the end of the season .. this season we will have playoffs for the first six teams .. the race for first and second is still important as it assures a bye in round one of the playoffs

this is the first simulation run for the new season .. the model has undergone some major design changes toward simplification and genralization, but all the numbers seemed to balance and look reasonable .. still i expect an error or two to creep in over the next week or so .. please look at your teams results carefully and advise me if you detect anything suspicious or incorrect

the model uses players fibs ratings at the beginning of the season and the current match results to produce over thousands of iterations or seasons the set of simulated results used to prepare the table above .. compare the simulation standing to the current TL homepage standings for an example of how the simulation results are more informative for "seeing" the as if it were a race unfolding before us at a consistent pace for all teams .. only during the last few days of the season do the homepage standings become as easy to see and on the last day more meaningful

Order represents the average order of finish in all simulation runs .. this provides a way of seeing the order of the race ..the Back metric is derived from Order .. Back is a way of expressing the concept of distance behind the leader, comparable to lengths behind in a horse race the basic metaphor i've used for seeing this team race .. i regret not having it available from day one as it would be interesting to have "seen" the teams breaking from the gate, but several things delayed me in getting this first simulation post up

MB/mr (matches behind/matches remaining) provides a quick way to see how many team point matches must be won in order for a contending team to catch or pass the leader .. i've automated the MB/mr calculation and it seems to be working in all but some unusually close situations .. thus, MB/mr is an important metric primarily for teams still in the race for first, but it may be useful for comparisons between other teams as well

for some teams MB may be equal to mr, yet the team has been eliminated from contention for winning .. for other eliminated teams, MB is less than mr .. the latter case is obvious .. if a team is 2 team point matches behind, but has no team point matches remaining, it cannot catch or pass the leading team .. other uses for this metric may exist for playoff races back in the pack, so it is included for all teams .. in order to make these cases more visually apparent, when a team is still in contention to win, the MB/mr value is displayed in boldface .. when out of contention for first place, the Mb/mr value is italicized

« Last Edit: February 03, 2008, 09:44:52 PM by sixty_something »
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TL5 Predictions
« on: February 03, 2008, 02:18:57 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2008, 06:48:25 PM »
When you're hot, you're hot
And when you're not, you're not

lyrics from "When You're Hot, You're Hot"
by Jerry Reed (1937 - ) American singer-songwriter 

schigstogsedat Overtakes Rigged Dice

Now A Three Way Race

schigstogsedat has with three big wins since the last post, two for team points, made a significant move now challenging the Cube Sluts and Racing Snails in the race for the top two spots and a first round bye in the playoffs .. schigstogsedat's odds to win improved from 20:1 to 4:1 .. Rigged Dice with a record of 1-3 since the last post including two team point losses dropped from the race for first .. Rigged Dice's odds to win dropped from 14:1 to 4999:1

Volatility of Predictions
 
the examples above illustrate how important TP (team points) are in the standings .. it also indicates how quickly the predictions can change when a team gets hot or stumbles .. note the MB/Mr metric for Rigged Dice has changed to 2/4 from 2/6 in the last run .. despite an MB of 2 (only 2 team point matches behind TP leader), as mr (matches remaining for team points) decreases the chances of making a significant move for Rigged Dice decreased substantially .. this not only illustrates the importance of team point matches, but how the model interprets and projects its results

Simulation Results
 
with 70.8% of the season completed 362 matches have been played and one posted but not yet confirmed, only 150 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of 5,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are based on a 6 team playoff format

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.8
,
---
Cube Sluts,
25 / 52
,
27 / 44
,
4/9
,
58.0%
,
2:3
,
99.2%
,
1:124
2.3
,
0.5
Racing Snails,
36 / 48
,
29 / 37
,
---
,
23.5%
,
3:1
,
99.9%
,
1:832
2.7
,
0.9
schigstogsedat,
24 / 48
,
25 / 40
,
4/8
,
20.7%
,
4:1
,
96.8%
,
1:30
6.2
,
4.4
Sixty and the Pips,
26 / 44
,
23 / 36
,
4/6
,
0.2%
,
416:1
,
62.1%
,
1:2
6.5
,
4.7
Rigged Dice,
32 / 44
,
25 / 37
,
2/4
,
0.0%
,
4999:1
,
53.7%
,
1:1
6.7
,
4.9
Take The Money And Run,
23 / 44
,
21 / 36
,
5/7
,
0.5%
,
216:1
,
52.9%
,
1:1
7.3
,
5.5
Club Voodoo,
30 / 42
,
20 / 32
,
2/4
,
0.1%
,
1249:1
,
39.7%
,
2:1
7.9
,
6.1
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
20 / 32
,
3/4
,
-
,
-
,
28.6%
,
2:1
8.8
,
7.0
,  Axe Wound,
21 / 42
,
21 / 34
,
5/7
,
0.0%
,
4999:1
,
24.6%
,
3:1
9.1
,
7.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
13 / 46
,
14 / 40
,
8/11
,
0.2%
,
555:1
,
27.5%
,
3:1
10.7
,
8.9
,  Elect Lakish In '08,
12 / 42
,
15 / 34
,
8/10
,
0.0%
,
4999:1
,
13.4%
,
6:1
11.2
,
9.4
,  UN Trio,
29 / 38
,
21 / 30
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
2.2%
,
45:1
12.8
,
11.0
,  Buds 'n Brat,
17 / 44
,
18 / 37
,
7/9
,
0.0%
,
4999:1
,
5.0%
,
19:1
14.0
,
12.2
,  Hopano,
19 / 40
,
17 / 30
,
6/7
,
-
,
-
,
1.4%
,
69:1
14.8
,
13.0
,  The Team With No Name,
19 / 40
,
13 / 30
,
6/7
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
713:1
14.8
,
13.0
,  two homos and a phobe,
14 / 44
,
14 / 36
,
8/10
,
-
,
-
,
0.6%
,
166:1
15.4
,
13.6
,  two chicks and a dick,
25 / 34
,
16 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
18.0
,
16.2
,  DG on FIBS,
4 / 52
,
9 / 44
,
11/16
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
4999:1
18.0
,
16.2
,  Dracula's Sons,
19 / 34
,
15 / 24
,
6/5
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Matches played since last post:

   aakjaer (Racing Snails) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
   wordman (Rigged Dice) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS
* sedat (schigstogsedat) def. wordman (Rigged Dice)
* johnwayne (two homos and a phobe) def. wordman (Rigged Dice)
   BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. wordman (Rigged Dice)
   BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. resh_lakish (The Team With No Name)
   rollingfool (two chicks and a dick) def. onion (two homos and a phobe)
* Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. rollingfool (two chicks and a dick)
* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. inim (The Team With No Name)
   Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
* taylor (Ottoman's Empire) def. fashion (Dracula's Sons)
   Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) def. adrian (Dracula's Sons)
   Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) def. _centasivo (UN Trio)
* kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. Mort (Elect Lakish In '08)
   kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. Wallenstein (Hopano)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. mradica (Virtual Addicts)
   DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat) def. _centasivo (UN Trio)

Posted but not confirmed
 
   playBunny (DG on FIBS) def. brl (Elect Lakish In '08)

* for team points
 
Metrics

TP/Max and MP/Max reflect Team Points and Match Points used in TL (Team League) to calculate the team standings .. each three player team receives 1 MP for a match win by any player .. thus, matches between teams are worth 3 MP and can result in an MP change of 3, 2, 1, or 0 MP for either team .. TP are awarded based on the outcome of the three matches between the three players on each team .. when a team wins two of the three matches, it is declared the TP winner and receives 3 TP, the losing team receives 1 TP .. each team starts with zero TP and zero MP at the beginning of the season

in the standings above, TP and MP are the actual team and match points each team has earned to date .. they are one of the few numbers in the Simulated Results that is the same as the standings displayed on the TL homepage .. Max represents the maximum team points and maximun match points as observed during the simulation run

Anomalies

two player issues have arisen since last season that were not dealt with by the last run of the model .. the withdrawal of brland the banning of KDP, have now been included in the most recent simulation run ..  for brl, a match result posted but not yet confirmed of a loss to playBunny in brl's last remaining match has been included in the simulation results

KDP's remaining matches have been noted within the model and blocked from being projected .. the impact on team DG on FIBS can be easily noted by comparing the simulation results from this run and the last when all KDP's matches were assumed to be completed .. other teams may be impacted as well by this change .. for teams with unplayed matches with KDP, team points will not be assigned when the match score is tied at 1-1 .. in past season's a banning or withdrawal of a player early in the season typically resulted in the replacement of that player .. should KDP be replaced, i will modify the model to allow those unplayed matches to be projected

a third issue, the change in rules giving a "completion bonus for teams with 100% participation" has not yet been included .. according to the latest modifications of the rules, "There will be a completion bonus of 3 Match Points and 2 Team Points for any team with 100% participation, i.e. no unplayed matches"

this rule change has not been incorporated into the current simulation run .. since first designed, the model assumes all players complete all matches .. this has never happened since the beginning of TL and is unlikely to happen this season .. thus, the impact of the completion bonus is impossible to simulate at this time


Future Changes

once a replacement is named for KDP or a ruling on how KDP's banning will impact the assessment of the completion bonus, i will change the model to include completion bonus scoring by defining an individual player's chances of completing any unplayed match based on the percent of matches they have played to date .. this will add another interesting wrinkle to the projected results and simulated TP/MP scoring .. such unpredictability remains a good fit for stochastic simulation as a player with a higher percentage of matches played is more likely to complete all their matches to contribute to their team's completion bonus

« Last Edit: February 04, 2008, 10:51:02 PM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2008, 06:48:25 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2008, 12:33:47 AM »
Simple pleasures are the last refuge of the complex.
-- Oscar Wilde Irish dramatist, novelist, & poet (1854 - 1900)

schigstogsedat Overtakes Rigged Dice - II

A Readjustment to the Model

while today's earlier post still holds, a FIBS message to me from ckopmann, captain of Rigged Dice, saying simply, "schigstogsedat Overtakes Rigged Dice ??" made me curious .. i looked at my decision to adjust the model to include KDP's banning and realized that by removing the ability of a replacement player in KDP's position to complete his/her matches that impact would be felt across the board by any team with an unplayed match against KDP .. assuming a replacement player is found and allowed, that players FIBS rating will likely be around KDP's current rating .. the replacement player will inherit KDP's played matches and continue the season .. therefore, i enabled the model to play out KDP's remaining matches using KDP's FIBS rating

the results changed the odds for several teams and the order of a few teams shifted .. the odds changed more than the order did, both are now more accurate .. the biggest change resulted in KDP's team, DG on FIBS, jumping up from 18th position to 11th place .. the new simulation results are below ..given the assumption a replacement player is found and allowed, these results are a better reflection of the current race .. all other comments made below are still relevant

so, ckopmann, Rigged Dice has still been passed by schigstogsedat but you didn't fall quite as far back as the earlier run suggested

Adjusted Simulation Results
 
with 70.8% of the season completed 363 matches have been played, only 150 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 6,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are based on a 6 team playoff format

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.5
,
---
Cube Sluts,
25 / 52
,
27 / 44
,
4/9
,
66.7%
,
1:2
,
99.75%
,
1:400
2.1
,
0.6
Racing Snails,
36 / 48
,
29 / 37
,
---
,
23.9%
,
3:1
,
99.95%
,
1:2006
3.2
,
1.7
schigstogsedat,
24 / 48
,
25 / 40
,
4/8
,
14.0%
,
6:1
,
94.4%
,
1:17
4.9
,
3.4
Rigged Dice,
32 / 44
,
25 / 37
,
2/4
,
0.5%
,
187:1
,
82.4%
,
1:5
5.9
,
4.4
Sixty and the Pips,
26 / 44
,
23 / 36
,
4/6
,
0.1%
,
1003:1
,
68.4%
,
1:2
7.4
,
5.9
Club Voodoo,
30 / 42
,
20 / 32
,
2/4
,
-
,
-
,
38.7%
,
2:1
7.6
,
6.1
Take The Money And Run,
23 / 44
,
21 / 36
,
5/7
,
0.1%
,
668:1
,
39.0%
,
2:1
8.6
,
7.1
,  Virtual Addicts,
13 / 46
,
14 / 40
,
8/11
,
0.3%
,
375:1
,
30.6%
,
2:1
9.0
,
7.5
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
20 / 32
,
3/4
,
-
,
-
,
13.5%
,
6:1
9.7
,
8.2
,  Axe Wound,
21 / 42
,
21 / 34
,
5/7
,
-
,
-
,
15.6%
,
5:1
10.7
,
9.2
,  DG on FIBS,
4 / 52
,
9 / 44
,
11/16
,
0.3%
,
316:1
,
17.9%
,
5:1
11.9
,
10.4
,  Elect Lakish In '08,
12 / 42
,
15 / 34
,
8/10
,
-
,
-
,
7.0%
,
13:1
12.3
,
10.8
,  Buds 'n Brat,
17 / 44
,
18 / 37
,
7/9
,
0.0%
,
6021:1
,
5.5%
,
17:1
12.3
,
10.8
,  UN Trio,
29 / 38
,
21 / 30
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.7%
,
139:1
14.9
,
13.4
,  two homos and a phobe,
14 / 44
,
14 / 36
,
8/10
,
-
,
-
,
0.7%
,
142:1
15.2
,
13.7
,  Hopano,
19 / 40
,
17 / 30
,
6/7
,
-
,
-
,
0.6%
,
153:1
15.2
,
13.7
,  The Team With No Name,
19 / 40
,
13 / 30
,
6/7
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
286:1
16.6
,
15.1
,  two chicks and a dick,
25 / 34
,
16 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
18.7
,
17.2
,  Dracula's Sons,
19 / 34
,
15 / 24
,
6/5
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]
« Last Edit: February 05, 2008, 12:47:07 AM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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Offline blitzxz

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2008, 05:35:38 AM »
What does that % to win mean? Is it chance to be first before or after playoffs?  :)
« Last Edit: February 05, 2008, 07:47:40 AM by blitzxz »

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2008, 05:35:38 AM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2008, 08:16:03 AM »
good question, blitzxz, the column heading is left over from last season when finishing first meant winning .. so, it is the probability a team will finish in first place expressed as a percentage .. this season winning means winning the playoffs, an entirely different thing .. i've been thinking of changing that column to Pct to Win or Place, that is finish first or second, since that earns a bye in the playoffs and is really more relevant than just finishing first

however, predicting the winner of the playoffs would also be possible even at this point, since the model gives me an expected order of finish, but that feels a little premature at the moment
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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2008, 03:31:55 PM »
with 16 matches played since yesterday, i am tempted to go in and update the model to see what's going on .. a look at the homepage standings reveal Club Voodoo and Ottoman's Empire making moves up

regardless, i must resist the temptation to do these posts daily, it's just too time consuming .. yesterday with 18 matches to update, it took two hours just to manually bring the data current .. additionally, i'm still tinkering with the model trying to generalize it and make it more adaptable .. as much as i enjoy being the TL sports writer, i can't do all that daily .. i will try to post at least two to three projections each week until the end of the season approaches and it is approaching fast in terms of matches played .. we'll be past the three-quarter pole or rounding the clubhouse turn by my next post .. it becomes somewhat simpler to update the matches played data down the stretch simply because they're fewer in number and then the race really gets interesting

look for my next update by Friday morning

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2008, 12:43:27 AM »

Rounding the Clubhouse Turn

At the horse track the clubhouse turn is the last turn before the home stretch .. in the FIBS Team League race to the finish we've reached it with three weeks left in our 44 day season .. while there is still a race to see which teams will finish in the top two spots, thus earning a bye in the playoffs, it's safe to make the call that the Cube Sluts and Racing Snails have a lock on the playoffs with less than 1 chance in 6,000 they will not .. only schigstogsedat is giving them a serious run for finishing in the top two .. WTG y'all

rounding out the top 6 teams, Rigged Dice and Sixty and the Pips are odds on favorites to also make the playoffs with 85% and 74% chances, respectively .. the race for the last playoff position is much closer .. with 8 teams in contention, defending champion Club Voodoo, Take the Money and Run, and Virtual Addicts lead the pack

the completion bonus is not yet factored into the simulation results, but will be soon .. regardless, as we all know, anything can happen and the completion bonus could easily be a critical factor in making the playoffs .. so, get those games finished and watch the finish from the clubhouse where sitting at the bar is much safer than dancing around waiting for that last match

Simulation Results
 
with 76.0% of the season completed 390 matches have been played, only 123 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 6,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are based on a 6 team playoff format .. % and Odds to Win means finishing first in the regular season

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to     Win  ,  Odds to     Win  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.5
,
---
Cube Sluts,
32 / 50
,
30 / 42
,
3/6
,
63.3%
,
2:3
,
99.98%
,
1:6000
2.2
,
0.7
Racing Snails,
40 / 46
,
31 / 35
,
---
,
15.7%
,
5:1
,
99.98%
,
1:6000
2.3
,
0.8
schigstogsedat,
30 / 48
,
27 / 40
,
4/6
,
27.0%
,
3:1
,
99.7%
,
1:333
5.0
,
3.5
Rigged Dice,
32 / 44
,
27 / 34
,
3/4
,
0.0%
,
2000:1
,
84.8%
,
1:6
5.7
,
4.2
Sixty and the Pips,
29 / 44
,
24 / 35
,
4/5
,
0.0%
,
6000:1
,
73.5%
,
1:3
7.4
,
5.9
Club Voodoo,
34 / 40
,
24 / 30
,
2/2
,
-
,
-
,
34.5%
,
2:1
7.8
,
6.3
,  Take The Money And Run,
23 / 44
,
22 / 35
,
6/7
,
-
,
-
,
37.7%
,
2:1
9.3
,
7.8
,  Virtual Addicts,
13 / 46
,
14 / 39
,
9/11
,
0.1%
,
1500:1
,
25.3%
,
3:1
9.4
,
7.9
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
21 / 31
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
,
10.5%
,
8:1
10.0
,
8.5
,  Elect Lakish In '08,
22 / 40
,
18 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
13.5%
,
6:1
10.2
,
8.7
,  DG on FIBS,
5 / 50
,
10 / 43
,
12/15
,
0.3%
,
353:1
,
22.6%
,
3:1
10.9
,
9.4
,  Axe Wound,
22 / 40
,
21 / 33
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
8.0%
,
11:1
12.1
,
10.6
,  UN Trio,
29 / 38
,
22 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.7%
,
139:1
12.2
,
10.7
,  Buds 'n Brat,
17 / 44
,
19 / 37
,
8/9
,
-
,
-
,
5.6%
,
17:1
14.8
,
13.3
,  The Team With No Name,
23 / 38
,
14 / 28
,
6/5
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.0
,  two homos and a phobe,
16 / 40
,
15 / 33
,
8/8
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
545:1
15.9
,
14.4
,  Hopano,
20 / 38
,
19 / 28
,
7/6
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.8
,
15.3
,  two chicks and a dick,
25 / 34
,
17 / 28
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
18.9
,
17.4
,  Dracula's Sons,
20 / 32
,
15 / 23
,
7/4
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Matches played since last post thru 1800 UTC Thursday:

* souptree (Elect Lakish In '08) def. Pernot_Ricard (Racing Snails)
   samir (Racing Snails) def. onion (two homos and a phobe)
* aakjaer (Racing Snails) def. johnwayne (two homos and a phobe)
   rollingfool (two chicks and a dick) def. samir (Racing Snails)
* gumpi (Club Voodoo) def. Mort (Elect Lakish In '08)
* souptree (Elect Lakish In '08) def. fashion (Dracula's Sons)
   Paul_Willian (Hopano) def. souptree (Elect Lakish In '08)
* Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) def. resh_lakish (The Team With No Name)
* donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. johnwayne (two homos and a phobe)   
   manxcat (two homos and a phobe) def. cowgirl (two chicks and a dick)
* DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat) def. cowgirl (two chicks and a dick)
   johnwayne (two homos and a phobe) def. cowgirl (two chicks and a dick)
   factotum (Club Voodoo) def. diane (Cube Sluts) 
* donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. gumpi (Club Voodoo)
   scuba (Club Voodoo) def. houtx (Hopano)
* gumpi (Club Voodoo) def. wordman (Rigged Dice)
   BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. gumpi (Club Voodoo)
   Wallenstein (Hopano) def. BushSucks (Take the Money and Run)
* erdbeere (The Team With No Name) def. diane (Cube Sluts)
   juanz (UN Trio) def. inim (The Team With No Name)
   diane (Cube Sluts) def. ckopmann (Rigged Dice)
   taylor (Ottoman's Empire) def. ckopmann (Rigged Dice)
   wordman (Rigged Dice) def. jukins (Sixty and the Pips)
   blitzxz (Rigged Dice) def. mradica (Virtual Addicts)
   magic_one (DG on FIBS) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
* jukins (Sixty and the Pips) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
* Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. Slipshod (Axe Wound)
   diane (Cube Sluts) def. ckopmann (Rigged Dice)

Posted but not confirmed
 
    playBunny (DG on FIBS) def. brl (Elect Lakish In '08)
* sedat (schigstogsedat) def.  Wallenstein (Hopano)

* for team points
« Last Edit: February 08, 2008, 01:40:20 AM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2008, 02:25:50 PM »

Top Two Neck and Neck and Almost a Lock

the simulation model shows schigstogsedat and the Cube Sluts running neck and neck with a good lead in the race for a bye in the playoffs .. according to the model, only the Racing Snails, a 31:1 longshot, has a reasonable chance at overtaking them .. while the Racing Snails have a 5 point lead in team points, the simulation results show current match data suggests their lead can be overtaken by schigstogsedat, Cube Sluts, or Take The Money And Run with only 2 match point wins, but the Racing Snails also have a match remaining for team points .. a win there would force others to win three remaining team point matches

the biggest move over the past weekend was by Take The Money And Run coming from a predicted 7th place finish into 4th place and now securing a 93.9% chance of making the playoffs ..team captain BushSucks won 5 of 6 matches played, 4 for team points .. Take The Money And Run now joins schigstogsedat, Cube Sluts, and the Racing Snails with over a 90% chance of making the playoffs

Rigged Dice, winning 1 of 2 for team points, holds a firm grip on the playoffs with an 83.2% chance of making the playoffs in the 5,001 simulated seasons below with a projected finish in 5th place .. .. Sixty and the Pips sits on the bubble for the playoffs in a projected 6th place finish with a 62.9% chance of making the playoffs .. Club Voodoo and DG on FIBS are closest in a neck and neck race with a 25.6% chance of either team making the playoffs .. all remaining teams now make the playoffs with a less than 10% chance .. five teams below did not make the playoffs in over 5,000 simulated seasons

the completion bonus has not yet been factored into the simulation results and could easily remain a critical factor in making the playoffs

Simulation Results
 
with 84.2% of the season completed 432 matches have been played, only 81 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 5,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are based on a 6 team playoff format

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds to Win  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.7
,
---
schigstogsedat,
36 / 48
,
31 / 40
,
2/4
,
55.2%
,
1:1
,
99.96%
,
1:2500
1.7
,
---
Cube Sluts,
36 / 48
,
32 / 39
,
2/4
,
49.6%
,
1:1
,
99.98%
,
1:5000
2.6
,
0.9
Racing Snails,
41 / 44
,
31 / 34
,
---
,
3.1%
,
31:1
,
99.96%
,
1:2500
4.5
,
2.8
Take The Money And Run,
35 / 44
,
27 / 34
,
2/3
,
0.0%
,
2500:1
,
93.9%
,
1:15
5.4
,
3.7
Rigged Dice,
36 / 42
,
28 / 33
,
2/2
,
-
,
-
,
83.2%
,
1:5
6.3
,
4.6
Sixty and the Pips,
32 / 44
,
25 / 34
,
3/4
,
-
,
-
,
62.9%
,
1:2
7.5
,
5.8
,  Club Voodoo,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
25.6%
,
3:1
8.7
,
7.0
,  DG on FIBS,
16 / 46
,
15 / 38
,
9/10
,
0.3%
,
384:1
,
25.6%
,
3:1
10.0
,
8.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
32 / 38
,
24 / 29
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
0.9%
,
108:1
10.3
,
8.6
,  Elect Lakish In '08,
22 / 40
,
19 / 31
,
7/6
,
-
,
-
,
8.3%
,
11:1
10.5
,
8.8
,  Buds 'n Brat,
21 / 42
,
22 / 36
,
7/7
,
-
,
-
,
8.1%
,
11:1
11.3
,
9.6
,  Axe Wound,
25 / 40
,
23 / 31
,
6/5
,
-
,
-
,
3.4%
,
29:1
12.0
,
10.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
22 / 40
,
17 / 35
,
7/6
,
-
,
-
,
2.6%
,
37:1
12.2
,
10.5
,  UN Trio,
29 / 38
,
22 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
999:1
14.7
,
13.0
,  The Team With No Name,
31 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
4/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.0
,  Hopano,
20 / 38
,
19 / 28
,
7/6
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.2
,  two homos and a phobe,
26 / 32
,
19 / 26
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.6
,  two chicks and a dick,
26 / 32
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.3
,  Dracula's Sons,
24 / --
,
17 / 18
,
6/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Matches played since last post:

* BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. aakjaer (Racing Snails)
* BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
   BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. adrian (Dracula's Sons)
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. BushSucks (Take the Money and Run)
* BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. johnwayne (two homos and a phobe)
* BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
   magic_one (DG on FIBS) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
   kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
* diane (Cube Sluts) def. Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts)
   diane (Cube Sluts) def. manxcat (two homos and a phobe)
   adrian (Dracula's Sons) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
* playBunny (DG on FIBS) def. MarcoPolo (Dracula's Sons)
   adrian (Dracula's Sons) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
* Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts) def. fashion (Dracula's Sons)
* erdbeere (The Team With No Name) def. fashion (Dracula's Sons)
* sixty_something (Sixty and the Pips) def. fashion (Dracula's Sons)
   blotsalot (Buds 'n Brat) def. onion (two homos and a phobe)
* Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. onion (two homos and a phobe)
* onion (two homos and a phobe) def. inim (The Team With No Name)
* DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat) def. johnwayne (two homos and a phobe)
   magic_one (DG on FIBS) def. johnwayne (two homos and a phobe)
* kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. johnwayne (two homos and a phobe)
   manxcat (two homos and a phobe) def. sixty_something (Sixty and the Pips)
   manxcat (two homos and a phobe) def. erdbeere (The Team With No Name)
* manxcat (two homos and a phobe) def. Eve (two chicks and a dick)
* wordman (Rigged Dice) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
* playBunny (DG on FIBS) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
* Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. playBunny (DG on FIBS)
* playBunny (DG on FIBS) def. inim (The Team With No Name)
* zyxtcba (Axe Wound) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
   gumpi (Club Voodoo) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
   erdbeere (The Team With No Name) def. souptree (Elect Lakish In '08)
   taylor (Ottoman's Empire) def. erdbeere (The Team With No Name)
* erdbeere (The Team With No Name) def. ckopmann (Rigged Dice)
   erdbeere (The Team With No Name) def. Eve (two chicks and a dick)
   blotsalot (Buds 'n Brat) def. Slipshod (Axe Wound)
* otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. blotsalot (Buds 'n Brat)
* sedat (schigstogsedat) def.  Wallenstein (Hopano)
   Slipshod (Axe Wound) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
   otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. rollingfool (two chicks and a dick)
   Eve (two chicks and a dick) def. gaspar (Axe Wound)
   souptree (Elect Lakish In '08) def. Eve (two chicks and a dick)

* for team points
« Last Edit: February 12, 2008, 07:44:21 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2008, 02:25:50 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2008, 04:59:41 PM »

Dewey Defeats Truman - 1948
Chicago Daily Tribune's erroneous headline

Regular Season Winner and Top Four Locked Up

schigstogsedat, winning in 90% of the simulated seasons, can be declared the regular season winner, according to the simulation results below, thus locking up one of the two byes in the first round of the playoffs

the race for second and the other round one bye, is still too close to call, but appears to be down to  three teams - the Cube Sluts, Racing Snails, and Take the Money and Run .. according to results from the current simulation run, these top four positions in the playoffs are more than 99.9% certain to make the playoffs

additionally, RiggedDice has a secure hold on fifth place making the playoffs in over 80% of the simulated seasons .. thus, five of the six playoff teams can be predicted with relative certainty according to the simulation

the race for the undecided sixth and final position is down to three teams, Club Voodoo, a full length behind Rigged Dice and now half a length ahead of Sixty and the Pips .. a length back is DG on FIBS still with 8 team point matches yet to be finished due to the unresolved banning of their captain KDP over two weeks ago .. while a vote of other team captains was held last week to approve a replacement, no announcement has been made as of this post .. DG on FIBS trails behind Sixty and the Pips by almost a full length, according to the projected results below, and is over two and a half lengths ahead of the closest contenders, Buds 'n Brat and Elect Lakish in '08 running nose to nose in 9th place with about a 4% chance of making the playoffs by finishing strong down the stretch

the completion bonus remains an uncertainty that could have a significant impact on any of the projections above .. the completion bonus has not yet been factored into the simulation results .. when at the end of the season (only ten days away) it is known, someone smiling confidently because of the declared "locked up" spots above may be sitting on the sidelines watching someone with a broad grin like Harry Truman holding up these headlines .. so, get those matches played

Simulation Results
 
with 88.9% of the season completed 456 matches have been played, only 57 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 5,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are based on a 6 team playoff format

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
schigstogsedat,
42 / 48
,
33 / 39
,
---
,
90.2%
,
1:9
,
99.98%
,
1:5000
2.4
,
1.3
Cube Sluts,
37 / 46
,
33 / 38
,
2/3
,
13.2%
,
7:1
,
99.98%
,
1:5000
2.7
,
1.6
Racing Snails,
41 / 44
,
32 / 34
,
1/1
,
1.3%
,
79:1
,
99.98%
,
1:5000
3.9
,
2.8
Take The Money And Run,
38 / 44
,
31 / 33
,
2/2
,
-
,
-
,
99.96%
,
1:2500
5.5
,
4.4
Rigged Dice,
36 / 42
,
29 / 33
,
2/2
,
-
,
-
,
81.5%
,
1:4
6.5
,
5.4
Club Voodoo,
37 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
2/1
,
-
,
-
,
52.3%
,
1:1
7.0
,
5.9
,  Sixty and the Pips,
32 / 44
,
26 / 32
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
,
43.5%
,
3:2
7.8
,
6.7
,  DG on FIBS,
20 / 44
,
17 / 36
,
8/8
,
0.1%
,
1669:1
,
29.4%
,
2:1
10.4
,
9.3
,  Buds 'n Brat,
24 / 42
,
24 / 33
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
4.1%
,
23:1
10.4
,
9.3
,  Elect Lakish In '08,
21 / 42
,
19 / 33
,
7/7
,
-
,
-
,
4.5%
,
21:1
10.5
,
9.4
,  Ottoman's Empire,
33 / 36
,
26 / 27
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.8
,
9.7
,  Axe Wound,
29 / 38
,
24 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.4%
,
227:1
12.5
,
11.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
23 / 38
,
20 / 31
,
7/5
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
500:1
12.9
,
11.8
,  UN Trio,
30 / 36
,
23 / 27
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
14.6
,
13.5
,  The Team With No Name,
31 / 34
,
18 / 23
,
4/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.0
,
14.9
,  Hopano,
21 / 36
,
19 / 26
,
7/5
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.8
,
15.7
,  two homos and a phobe,
26 / 32
,
19 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
16.1
,  two chicks and a dick,
27 / 30
,
19 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Dracula's Sons,
24 / --
,
17 / 18
,
6/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Matches played since last post:

   scuba (Club Voodoo) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)
* sedat (schigstogsedat) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
* sedat (schigstogsedat) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. Slipshod (Axe Wound)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. playBunny (DG on FIBS)
   DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat) def.  jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
   taylor (Ottoman's Empire) def. Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts)
   jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. BushSucks (Take the Money and Run)
* zyxtcba (Axe Wound) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
   magic_one (DG on FIBS) def. DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat)
   BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
* magic_one (DG on FIBS) def. cowgirl (two chicks and a dick)
   magic_one (DG on FIBS) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
* DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat) def. Wallenstein (Hopano)
   wordman (Rigged Dice) def. DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat)
   Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts) def. sixty_something (Sixty and the Pips)
   mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. onion (two homos and a phobe)
   mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. juanz (UN Trio)
   _centasivo (UN Trio) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
* Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts) def. chopos (UN Trio) 
   BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. _centasivo (UN Trio)
   BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. jukins (Sixty and the Pips)
   Eve (two chicks and a dick) def. Paul_Willian (Hopano)
   sixty_something (Sixty and the Pips) def. erdbeere (The Team With No Name)
* BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. Mort (Elect Lakish In '08)
   Pernot_Ricard (Racing Snails) def. manxcat (two homos and a phobe)

> brl forfeits reset to unplayed match with jasonj

* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. brl (Elect Lakish In '08)
   playBunny (DG on FIBS) def. brl (Elect Lakish In '08)
* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. brl (Elect Lakish In '08)

* for team points

« Last Edit: February 18, 2008, 09:47:30 PM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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Offline stog

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2008, 09:37:45 PM »

 hi sedat  congrats on a wonderful campaign  we are provisionally winners but .............  Completion Bonus: There will be a completion bonus of 3 Match Points and 2 Team Points for any team with 100% participation, i.e. no unplayed matches.(10 days remaining)  so we could still lose  so good luck i know you are very busy but if you can...  there r 10 days remaining
You tell Schigolch: just sent this to sedat
You tell Schigolch: well done everyone!!!
Schigolch says: very good stog! hi
Schigolch says: however i think the completion bonus should be redesigned
Schigolch says: i think a good completion bonus has to address the following problem:
Schigolch says: at halftime say
Schigolch says: a team who hasn't performed very well has no incentive to play along
Schigolch says: while those who are in the upper part of the standings table indeed do want to play
Schigolch says: but they may have to find their partner in the lower regions
You tell Schigolch: i agree - i think it should be a point for playing each game win or lose
Schigolch says: so a good incentive mechanism has to address this prob

Offline sixty_something

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Re: TL5 Predictions
« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2008, 04:19:09 PM »
And now, the end is here
And so [we] face the final curtain
My friend, I'll say it clear
I'll state my case, of which I'm certain

My Way lyrics by Paul Anka and others
Frank Sinatra popularized the song in 1968

Top Four of Six Now Set for Playoffs

according to the latest simulation results for over 5,000 projected seasons, the order of finish for the top four teams is fixed - schigstogsedat, Cube Sluts, Racing Snails, and Take The Money And Run .. only the fifth and sixth places remain in doubt, but Rigged Dice and Club Vooddo each have a 93.5% chance of rounding out the top six and set the playoff field .. only a major collapse by one or both of them will enable one of the longshot contenders to over take them, even then a longshot challenger will likely have to win out or advance due to a completion bonus

five teams, Ottoman's Empire, Take the Money and Run, two chicks and a dick, Dracula's Sons, and Sixty and the Pips have completed all their matches and are eligible for the completion bonus .. it is important to note that the completion bonus has not been included in the simulation results below or in the standings posted at the home page .. if they were, Sixty and the Pips and Ottoman's Empire would move up to fifth and sixth place .. thus, the completion bonus may yet be an important factor in determining the playoff teams, including even the order of the top two teams who will receive a bye in round 1 of the playoffs

with the completion bonus of 3 team points and 2 match points, Take the Money and Run would currently be listed as the first place team at the TL homepage .. in the projected simulation results below remember, it is assumed by the simulation for each season that each team plays all matches .. so, the order of the simulation is consistent with the teams relative position but ignores the completion bonus factor .. the final standings for determining playoff contenders will be based on actual matches played at the end of the season and the completion bonus .. thus, getting those matches finished is critical for all teams

the end of the season remains scheduled for Friday, February 29th .. so, only 4 days remain to get those games finished .. kev_et who replaced KDP on DG on FIBS, has made good progress with only 3 of 8 matches remaining .. jasonj who replaced brl on Elect Lakish In '08 has only 2 matches remaining .. the bottleneck appears to be with playBunny on DG on FIBS and souptree on Elect Lakish In '08, with 7 unfinished matches each .. both DG on FIBS remains in contention for making the playoffs .. the results of their matches on both standings and completion bonuses could well determine the final standings .. DG on FIBS has the best shot of all remaining contenders at 5:1 odds to make the playoffs

in total, the unplayed matches for DG on FIBS and Elect Lakish In '08 account for 18 of the 21 matches remaining unplayed .. so, if you know any of these players or have matches with them, do your best to encourage them to get them played .. particularly souptree, our fearless leader .. be sure to thank soup for developing and maitaining a great TL site while you're bugging him to get his games finished .. also, remember there is a process for formally notifying opponents at the TL homepage and sending a Cc to the Dispute Resolution Committee (DRC) .. while no DRC has been elected this season and only souptree has the keys to the TL mailbox, this should be done whether your match is relevant or not

clearly, in the opinion of this reporter, the completion bonus has helped in encouraging players to finish their matches this season .. last season with the same number of teams 20 matches remained unplayed at the end of the season, at present we have only 21 unplayed  .. in the first three previous TL seasons the percent unplayed was much higher

Simulation Results
 
with 95.9% of the season completed 492 matches have been played, only 21 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 5,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are based on a 6 team playoff format .. the % to win simply indicates the regular season winner .. aagain, the completion bonus is not included or considered in the points totals below

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
schigstogsedat,
45 / 48
,
36 / 38
,
---
,
100.0%
,
---
,
100.00%
,
---
2.0
,
1.0
Cube Sluts,
44 / --
,
36 / 37
,
1/0
,
-
,
-
,
100.00%
,
---
3.0
,
2.0
Racing Snails,
44 / --
,
33 / 34
,
1/0
,
-
,
-
,
100.00%
,
---
4.0
,
3.0
Take The Money And Run,
44 / --
,
33 / --
,
1/0
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
5.5
,
4.5
Rigged Dice,
37 / 40
,
30 / 32
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
89.4%
,
1:8
5.7
,
4.7
Club Voodoo,
37 / 40
,
28 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
93.7%
,
1:15
8.2
,
7.2
,  DG on FIBS,
25 / 40
,
19 / 29
,
7/5
,
-
,
-
,
16.6%
,
5:1
8.3
,
7.3
,  Sixty and the Pips,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
3/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.5
,
8.5
,  Ottoman's Empire,
36 / --
,
27 / --
,
3/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
9.1
,  Buds 'n Brat,
29 / 38
,
27 / 30
,
6/3
,
-
,
-
,
2.6%
,
38:1
10.3
,
9.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
30 / 36
,
26 / 29
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
11.6
,
10.6
,  Axe Wound,
34 / --
,
26 / 28
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.0
,
11.0
,  UN Trio,
33 / 36
,
25 / 26
,
4/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.0
,
12.0
,  Elect Lakish In '08,
30 / 36
,
21 / 29
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.4
,
14.4
,  Hopano,
28 / 34
,
21 / 23
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.7
,  The Team With No Name,
32 / --
,
19 / 20
,
5/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
16.2
,  two homos and a phobe,
26 / 32
,
19 / 23
,
7/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.5
,  two chicks and a dick,
28 / --
,
21 / --
,
6/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Dracula's Sons,
24 / --
,
17 / --
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Matches played since last post:

* sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Mort (Elect Lakish In '08)
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. resh_lakish (The Team With No Name)
* Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) def. zyxtcba (Axe Wound)
* Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
* Wallenstein (Hopano) def. Mort (Elect Lakish In '08)
* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. jasonj (Elect Lakish In '08)
* otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. inim (The Team With No Name)
   resh_lakish (The Team With No Name) def. Wallenstein (Hopano)
* BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. zyxtcba (Axe Wound)
* donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. jukins (Sixty and the Pips)
* diane (Cube Sluts) def. kev_et (DG on FIBS)
   Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts) def. kev_et (DG on FIBS)
* Paul_Willian (Hopano) def. Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts)
   cowgirl (two chicks and a dick) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
* kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. jukins (Sixty and the Pips)
   Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts) def. erdbeere (The Team With No Name)
   blotsalot (Buds 'n Brat) def. houtx (Hopano)
* _centasivo (UN Trio) def. Wallenstein (Hopano)
* sixty_something (Sixty and the Pips) def. Eve (two chicks and a dick)
   Kari_Grande (Buds 'n Brat) def. kev_et (DG on FIBS)
   factotum (Club Voodoo) def. kev_et (DG on FIBS)
* kev_et (DG on FIBS) def. ckopmann (Rigged Dice)
   rollingfool (two chicks and a dick) def. playBunny (DG on FIBS)
    _centasivo (UN Trio) def. magic_one (DG on FIBS)
   wordman (Rigged Dice) def. Mort (Elect Lakish In '08) 
   wordman (Rigged Dice) def. adrian (Dracula's Sons)
   kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. sedat (schigstogsedat)
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. _centasivo (UN Trio)
   kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat)
* zyxtcba (Axe Wound) def. DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat)
* DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat) def. jukins (Sixty and the Pips)
* BushSucks (Take the Money and Run) def. DeaDice (Buds 'n Brat)
   diane (Cube Sluts) def. Eve (two chicks and a dick)
* samir (Racing Snails) def. playBunny (DG on FIBS)
    kev_et (DG on FIBS) def. sixty_something (Sixty and the Pips)
    sixty_something (Sixty and the Pips)  def. souptree (Elect Lakish In '08)

Posted but not confirmed

   Slipshod (Axe Wound) def. onion (two homos and a phobe)

* for team points
« Last Edit: February 26, 2008, 06:23:40 AM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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