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What follows is the data on probabilities of advancing to a particular round in the tournament (Tourney 105 on FIBS). I took the ratings at the beginning of the tournament, and used the FIBS rating formula, which predicts the probability of winning a match based on a rating difference. I wrote a program which takes these probabilities and calculates the probability of advancing to a particular round.

There are six tables here, which represent the probabilities of winning in that round. In particular, the first table listed, "Round 6", gives the probabilities of winning the tournament, since the finals is Round 6.

There are four columns. "Rating" is the rating of the players when TourneyBot posted the brackets. 1/Prob represents the reciprocal of the probability that the particular player will win the tournament. For example, the probability that melzi will win the tournament is 1/4.232, which is probability 0.236 -- that's the third column. OvAve is short for "Over Average". For melzi, the entry of 15.124 means that the probability that melzi will win the tournament is 15.124 times as likely as if we all just flipped coins to see who advances.

The only assumption I make in all of this is that the FIBS rating formula accurate predicts the correct probability of victory between two players. This is flawed in two ways: one, we don't know how accurate the rating model is, and finally, I'm only using a snapshot of the ratings at the beginning of the tournament, and for no other reason than pure noise, there's no reason to assume the numbers predict with 100% accuracy the strength of the players.

All of that being said, I think this has extremely strong predictive value. For example, if I were wagering in a Calcutta auction, I'd rely quite heavily on these numbers.

JLee

Code:

ROUND 6 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
  melzi 2002.68 4.232 0.236 15.124
  hound_dog 1954.53 8.777 0.114 7.292
  WooMets 1852.94 11.788 0.085 5.429
  Blotman 1843.24 15.703 0.064 4.076
  JLee 1788.14 21.070 0.047 3.038
  alef 1801.99 22.780 0.044 2.809
  mOOse 1806.82 27.836 0.036 2.299
  Val 1802.30 31.605 0.032 2.025
  TheExecutioner 1771.49 32.065 0.031 1.996
  EddieVedd 1753.96 37.176 0.027 1.722
  crille 1718.72 45.080 0.022 1.420
  Slipshod 1747.11 46.036 0.022 1.390
  clay 1787.85 50.561 0.020 1.266
  Spock 1810.89 52.787 0.019 1.212
  MND 1773.36 59.926 0.017 1.068
  Iceborg 1751.56 61.645 0.016 1.038
  don 1726.22 62.555 0.016 1.023
  juanz 1674.19 68.743 0.015 0.931
  MissBiggy 1762.71 73.615 0.014 0.869
  mano 1721.58 74.563 0.013 0.858
  Travis 1774.97 74.931 0.013 0.854
  burper 1724.80 82.658 0.012 0.774
  crueger 1695.05 92.923 0.011 0.689
  yes 1654.78 110.684 0.009 0.578
  MadMatt 1652.76 113.011 0.009 0.566
  cowgirl 1636.10 157.710 0.006 0.406
  badspellr 1681.41 176.761 0.006 0.362
  diane 1665.24 188.627 0.005 0.339
  Zauberin 1633.36 229.227 0.004 0.279
  amarganth 1630.60 252.964 0.004 0.253
  HumanIAm 1665.57 313.988 0.003 0.204
  Rammot 1671.14 330.249 0.003 0.194
  donzaemon 1646.80 359.750 0.003 0.178
  leveler 1624.49 369.399 0.003 0.173
  socksey 1605.41 423.476 0.002 0.151
  Tomawaky 1661.03 524.142 0.002 0.122
  bekir 1627.82 530.262 0.002 0.121
  elmroth 1620.01 605.895 0.002 0.106
  noodle 1629.35 619.184 0.002 0.103
  Leeze 1590.16 649.492 0.002 0.099
  wingtsun 1579.13 837.835 0.001 0.076
  aslengyel 1557.67 1039.380 0.001 0.062
  umutlabir 1551.77 1172.218 0.001 0.055
  Wallenstein 1549.02 1190.478 0.001 0.054
  True_Blue 1516.51 1266.690 0.001 0.051
  sports_photog 1506.33 1552.883 0.001 0.041
  DirtyHarryII 1545.92 1631.359 0.001 0.039
  stacy 1514.45 1764.170 0.001 0.036
  grillbill 1491.99 2538.322 0.000 0.025
  eggplant 1496.32 2581.314 0.000 0.025
  Matrasback 1509.14 2599.046 0.000 0.025
  chopos 1479.96 3428.748 0.000 0.019
  jinnate 1469.69 3771.868 0.000 0.017
  houtx 1495.69 4185.835 0.000 0.015
  wood 1460.21 4514.813 0.000 0.014
  eskenazi 1465.88 14215.764 0.000 0.005
  Frostie 1462.49 17175.477 0.000 0.004
  TimDugan 1319.51 91371.295 0.000 0.001
  atias 1377.96 109662.136 0.000 0.001
  danjonas 1306.57 247617.047 0.000 0.000
  jkreed 1300.95 590068.468 0.000 0.000
  JimyB 1225.86 2611826.125 0.000 0.000
  Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 3004536.770 0.000 0.000
  Cass 1144.34 36875037.296 0.000 0.000

ROUND 5 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
  melzi 2002.68 3.327 0.301 9.619
  WooMets 1852.94 5.670 0.176 5.644
  hound_dog 1954.53 6.511 0.154 4.915
  JLee 1788.14 8.540 0.117 3.747
  alef 1801.99 9.578 0.104 3.341
  Blotman 1843.24 9.737 0.103 3.287
  TheExecutioner 1771.49 12.370 0.081 2.587
  EddieVedd 1753.96 13.586 0.074 2.355
  crille 1718.72 14.754 0.068 2.169
  mOOse 1806.82 16.004 0.062 1.999
  Val 1802.30 18.014 0.056 1.776
  juanz 1674.19 19.399 0.052 1.650
  don 1726.22 21.008 0.048 1.523
  Iceborg 1751.56 22.391 0.045 1.429
  Slipshod 1747.11 23.059 0.043 1.388
  mano 1721.58 24.641 0.041 1.299
  clay 1787.85 27.873 0.036 1.148
  yes 1654.78 29.100 0.034 1.100
  MadMatt 1652.76 29.499 0.034 1.085
  Spock 1810.89 30.610 0.033 1.045
  MND 1773.36 31.983 0.031 1.001
  MissBiggy 1762.71 38.268 0.026 0.836
  cowgirl 1636.10 38.837 0.026 0.824
  burper 1724.80 39.005 0.026 0.820
  Travis 1774.97 40.085 0.025 0.798
  crueger 1695.05 40.479 0.025 0.791
  diane 1665.24 51.574 0.019 0.620
  badspellr 1681.41 73.946 0.014 0.433
  Zauberin 1633.36 82.708 0.012 0.387
  leveler 1624.49 87.006 0.011 0.368
  amarganth 1630.60 90.391 0.011 0.354
  donzaemon 1646.80 91.890 0.011 0.348
  socksey 1605.41 92.820 0.011 0.345
  HumanIAm 1665.57 125.229 0.008 0.256
  Rammot 1671.14 134.119 0.007 0.239
  Leeze 1590.16 134.336 0.007 0.238
  wingtsun 1579.13 165.965 0.006 0.193
  bekir 1627.82 187.638 0.005 0.171
  aslengyel 1557.67 188.539 0.005 0.170
  True_Blue 1516.51 193.936 0.005 0.165
  Tomawaky 1661.03 206.514 0.005 0.155
  umutlabir 1551.77 207.515 0.005 0.154
  elmroth 1620.01 209.530 0.005 0.153
  noodle 1629.35 220.535 0.005 0.145
  sports_photog 1506.33 227.888 0.004 0.140
  stacy 1514.45 267.831 0.004 0.119
  Wallenstein 1549.02 320.992 0.003 0.100
  grillbill 1491.99 349.307 0.003 0.092
  eggplant 1496.32 362.952 0.003 0.088
  DirtyHarryII 1545.92 433.388 0.002 0.074
  chopos 1479.96 447.919 0.002 0.071
  jinnate 1469.69 471.650 0.002 0.068
  wood 1460.21 542.591 0.002 0.059
  Matrasback 1509.14 601.925 0.002 0.053
  houtx 1495.69 917.454 0.001 0.035
  eskenazi 1465.88 2760.394 0.000 0.012
  Frostie 1462.49 3294.226 0.000 0.010
  TimDugan 1319.51 5716.157 0.000 0.006
  danjonas 1306.57 14549.903 0.000 0.002
  atias 1377.96 14607.762 0.000 0.002
  jkreed 1300.95 55296.720 0.000 0.001
  JimyB 1225.86 103138.953 0.000 0.000
  Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 230831.762 0.000 0.000
  Cass 1144.34 1622364.565 0.000 0.000

ROUND 4 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
  melzi 2002.68 2.340 0.427 6.837
  WooMets 1852.94 3.751 0.267 4.265
  hound_dog 1954.53 3.822 0.262 4.186
  JLee 1788.14 5.100 0.196 3.137
  alef 1801.99 5.232 0.191 3.058
  Blotman 1843.24 5.339 0.187 2.997
  TheExecutioner 1771.49 6.359 0.157 2.516
  crille 1718.72 6.743 0.148 2.373
  mOOse 1806.82 6.969 0.143 2.296
  EddieVedd 1753.96 7.614 0.131 2.101
  Val 1802.30 7.771 0.129 2.059
  juanz 1674.19 7.963 0.126 2.009
  Slipshod 1747.11 8.687 0.115 1.842
  don 1726.22 11.168 0.090 1.433
  yes 1654.78 11.344 0.088 1.410
  MadMatt 1652.76 11.439 0.087 1.399
  Iceborg 1751.56 12.501 0.080 1.280
  mano 1721.58 12.967 0.077 1.234
  crueger 1695.05 13.262 0.075 1.206
  Spock 1810.89 13.453 0.074 1.189
  clay 1787.85 13.652 0.073 1.172
  burper 1724.80 13.833 0.072 1.157
  cowgirl 1636.10 14.430 0.069 1.109
  MND 1773.36 15.197 0.066 1.053
  MissBiggy 1762.71 17.744 0.056 0.902
  Travis 1774.97 19.088 0.052 0.838
  Zauberin 1633.36 22.619 0.044 0.707
  diane 1665.24 24.035 0.042 0.666
  amarganth 1630.60 24.496 0.041 0.653
  badspellr 1681.41 28.175 0.035 0.568
  leveler 1624.49 31.284 0.032 0.511
  socksey 1605.41 37.377 0.027 0.428
  donzaemon 1646.80 40.960 0.024 0.391
  Leeze 1590.16 43.868 0.023 0.365
  HumanIAm 1665.57 45.747 0.022 0.350
  Rammot 1671.14 49.781 0.020 0.321
  True_Blue 1516.51 50.528 0.020 0.317
  sports_photog 1506.33 57.496 0.017 0.278
  bekir 1627.82 61.753 0.016 0.259
  wingtsun 1579.13 62.417 0.016 0.256
  aslengyel 1557.67 66.769 0.015 0.240
  Wallenstein 1549.02 67.164 0.015 0.238
  elmroth 1620.01 67.601 0.015 0.237
  umutlabir 1551.77 72.267 0.014 0.221
  noodle 1629.35 72.990 0.014 0.219
  Tomawaky 1661.03 74.638 0.013 0.214
  stacy 1514.45 83.830 0.012 0.191
  grillbill 1491.99 83.925 0.012 0.191
  DirtyHarryII 1545.92 89.478 0.011 0.179
  chopos 1479.96 103.430 0.010 0.155
  jinnate 1469.69 105.326 0.009 0.152
  eggplant 1496.32 107.634 0.009 0.149
  Matrasback 1509.14 109.931 0.009 0.146
  wood 1460.21 117.540 0.009 0.136
  houtx 1495.69 159.577 0.006 0.100
  Frostie 1462.49 509.545 0.002 0.031
  eskenazi 1465.88 546.704 0.002 0.029
  TimDugan 1319.51 744.770 0.001 0.021
  atias 1377.96 1647.691 0.001 0.010
  danjonas 1306.57 2272.378 0.000 0.007
  jkreed 1300.95 5990.316 0.000 0.003
  JimyB 1225.86 11862.984 0.000 0.001
  Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 21222.659 0.000 0.001
  Cass 1144.34 71534.407 0.000 0.000

ROUND 3 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
  melzi 2002.68 1.713 0.584 4.671
  Blotman 1843.24 2.425 0.412 3.299
  WooMets 1852.94 2.515 0.398 3.181
  hound_dog 1954.53 2.994 0.334 2.672
  JLee 1788.14 3.091 0.324 2.588
  crille 1718.72 3.435 0.291 2.329
  Slipshod 1747.11 3.473 0.288 2.304
  alef 1801.99 3.476 0.288 2.301
  EddieVedd 1753.96 3.570 0.280 2.241
  TheExecutioner 1771.49 4.035 0.248 1.983
  juanz 1674.19 4.240 0.236 1.887
  mOOse 1806.82 4.562 0.219 1.754
  crueger 1695.05 4.608 0.217 1.736
  don 1726.22 4.916 0.203 1.627
  yes 1654.78 5.009 0.200 1.597
  MadMatt 1652.76 5.027 0.199 1.591
  Val 1802.30 5.056 0.198 1.582
  clay 1787.85 5.445 0.184 1.469
  mano 1721.58 5.639 0.177 1.419
  cowgirl 1636.10 6.101 0.164 1.311
  Zauberin 1633.36 6.551 0.153 1.221
  MissBiggy 1762.71 6.652 0.150 1.203
  amarganth 1630.60 7.029 0.142 1.138
  Iceborg 1751.56 7.089 0.141 1.129
  MND 1773.36 7.643 0.131 1.047
  burper 1724.80 7.891 0.127 1.014
  badspellr 1681.41 8.498 0.118 0.941
  Spock 1810.89 8.859 0.113 0.903
  diane 1665.24 9.062 0.110 0.883
  Travis 1774.97 9.621 0.104 0.832
  socksey 1605.41 11.915 0.084 0.671
  Wallenstein 1549.02 14.838 0.067 0.539
  leveler 1624.49 14.961 0.067 0.535
  bekir 1627.82 15.887 0.063 0.504
  elmroth 1620.01 17.024 0.059 0.470
  HumanIAm 1665.57 17.776 0.056 0.450
  wingtsun 1579.13 18.418 0.054 0.434
  True_Blue 1516.51 18.425 0.054 0.434
  donzaemon 1646.80 18.587 0.054 0.430
  Leeze 1590.16 19.373 0.052 0.413
  DirtyHarryII 1545.92 19.503 0.051 0.410
  Rammot 1671.14 19.649 0.051 0.407
  stacy 1514.45 20.164 0.050 0.397
  sports_photog 1506.33 20.391 0.049 0.392
  Matrasback 1509.14 21.166 0.047 0.378
  grillbill 1491.99 23.775 0.042 0.336
  aslengyel 1557.67 24.108 0.041 0.332
  eggplant 1496.32 24.400 0.041 0.328
  umutlabir 1551.77 25.662 0.039 0.312
  noodle 1629.35 25.725 0.039 0.311
  jinnate 1469.69 27.873 0.036 0.287
  chopos 1479.96 28.239 0.035 0.283
  Tomawaky 1661.03 28.697 0.035 0.279
  houtx 1495.69 29.246 0.034 0.274
  wood 1460.21 30.235 0.033 0.265
  eskenazi 1465.88 82.162 0.012 0.097
  TimDugan 1319.51 146.050 0.007 0.055
  Frostie 1462.49 152.472 0.007 0.052
  danjonas 1306.57 362.594 0.003 0.022
  atias 1377.96 375.423 0.003 0.021
  jkreed 1300.95 482.663 0.002 0.017
  JimyB 1225.86 1394.258 0.001 0.006
  Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 2087.229 0.000 0.004
  Cass 1144.34 6874.553 0.000 0.001

ROUND 2 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
  melzi 2002.68 1.351 0.740 2.960
  Blotman 1843.24 1.498 0.668 2.670
  JLee 1788.14 1.510 0.662 2.649
  WooMets 1852.94 1.630 0.613 2.453
  juanz 1674.19 1.788 0.559 2.237
  EddieVedd 1753.96 2.020 0.495 1.980
  hound_dog 1954.53 2.028 0.493 1.973
  mOOse 1806.82 2.043 0.489 1.958
  crille 1718.72 2.102 0.476 1.903
  Val 1802.30 2.243 0.446 1.783
  Slipshod 1747.11 2.287 0.437 1.749
  alef 1801.99 2.462 0.406 1.625
  MadMatt 1652.76 2.556 0.391 1.565
  yes 1654.78 2.558 0.391 1.564
  MND 1773.36 2.573 0.389 1.554
  TheExecutioner 1771.49 2.747 0.364 1.456
  crueger 1695.05 2.789 0.359 1.434
  clay 1787.85 2.832 0.353 1.412
  don 1726.22 2.852 0.351 1.403
  Zauberin 1633.36 2.917 0.343 1.371
  amarganth 1630.60 3.108 0.322 1.287
  cowgirl 1636.10 3.202 0.312 1.249
  mano 1721.58 3.242 0.308 1.234
  MissBiggy 1762.71 3.285 0.304 1.218
  burper 1724.80 3.439 0.291 1.163
  badspellr 1681.41 3.484 0.287 1.148
  Iceborg 1751.56 3.877 0.258 1.032
  HumanIAm 1665.57 4.355 0.230 0.918
  Spock 1810.89 4.681 0.214 0.855
  diane 1665.24 4.681 0.214 0.855
  socksey 1605.41 4.817 0.208 0.830
  Rammot 1671.14 4.906 0.204 0.815
  True_Blue 1516.51 4.955 0.202 0.807
  sports_photog 1506.33 5.312 0.188 0.753
  Wallenstein 1549.02 5.323 0.188 0.752
  Travis 1774.97 5.567 0.180 0.719
  noodle 1629.35 5.619 0.178 0.712
  bekir 1627.82 6.156 0.162 0.650
  aslengyel 1557.67 6.279 0.159 0.637
  stacy 1514.45 6.301 0.159 0.635
  elmroth 1620.01 6.474 0.154 0.618
  umutlabir 1551.77 6.556 0.153 0.610
  Matrasback 1509.14 6.776 0.148 0.590
  eggplant 1496.32 7.215 0.139 0.554
  wingtsun 1579.13 7.857 0.127 0.509
  leveler 1624.49 7.959 0.126 0.503
  donzaemon 1646.80 8.148 0.123 0.491
  DirtyHarryII 1545.92 8.615 0.116 0.464
  grillbill 1491.99 8.820 0.113 0.453
  jinnate 1469.69 8.935 0.112 0.448
  wood 1460.21 9.440 0.106 0.424
  Leeze 1590.16 9.607 0.104 0.416
  chopos 1479.96 10.137 0.099 0.395
  houtx 1495.69 11.356 0.088 0.352
  Tomawaky 1661.03 13.072 0.077 0.306
  eskenazi 1465.88 18.041 0.055 0.222
  TimDugan 1319.51 19.691 0.051 0.203
  Frostie 1462.49 24.046 0.042 0.166
  danjonas 1306.57 38.524 0.026 0.104
  atias 1377.96 43.107 0.023 0.093
  jkreed 1300.95 64.139 0.016 0.062
  JimyB 1225.86 165.687 0.006 0.024
  Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 259.138 0.004 0.015
  Cass 1144.34 419.237 0.002 0.010

ROUND 1 Rating 1/Prob Prob OvAve
  melzi 2002.68 1.036 0.965 1.930
  WooMets 1852.94 1.061 0.942 1.885
  burper 1724.80 1.075 0.930 1.860
  Blotman 1843.24 1.089 0.918 1.837
  JLee 1788.14 1.117 0.896 1.791
  mOOse 1806.82 1.148 0.871 1.743
  juanz 1674.19 1.205 0.830 1.659
  Val 1802.30 1.220 0.820 1.640
  crille 1718.72 1.344 0.744 1.488
  badspellr 1681.41 1.382 0.724 1.447
  Slipshod 1747.11 1.406 0.711 1.422
  crueger 1695.05 1.410 0.709 1.419
  MadMatt 1652.76 1.425 0.702 1.404
  yes 1654.78 1.438 0.695 1.391
  TheExecutioner 1771.49 1.446 0.691 1.383
  alef 1801.99 1.454 0.688 1.375
  EddieVedd 1753.96 1.517 0.659 1.318
  don 1726.22 1.519 0.658 1.316
  cowgirl 1636.10 1.524 0.656 1.312
  hound_dog 1954.53 1.526 0.655 1.310
  Zauberin 1633.36 1.575 0.635 1.270
  Travis 1774.97 1.604 0.623 1.247
  Iceborg 1751.56 1.626 0.615 1.230
  MND 1773.36 1.635 0.612 1.224
  amarganth 1630.60 1.697 0.589 1.179
  mano 1721.58 1.779 0.562 1.124
  HumanIAm 1665.57 1.852 0.540 1.080
  clay 1787.85 1.895 0.528 1.056
  stacy 1514.45 1.923 0.520 1.040
  True_Blue 1516.51 1.956 0.511 1.022
  bekir 1627.82 1.969 0.508 1.016
  aslengyel 1557.67 1.974 0.507 1.013
  umutlabir 1551.77 2.027 0.493 0.987
  elmroth 1620.01 2.032 0.492 0.984
  sports_photog 1506.33 2.046 0.489 0.978
  eggplant 1496.32 2.084 0.480 0.960
  MissBiggy 1762.71 2.118 0.472 0.944
  noodle 1629.35 2.174 0.460 0.920
  diane 1665.24 2.284 0.438 0.876
  Wallenstein 1549.02 2.435 0.411 0.821
  Rammot 1671.14 2.576 0.388 0.776
  donzaemon 1646.80 2.597 0.385 0.770
  Tomawaky 1661.03 2.655 0.377 0.753
  Matrasback 1509.14 2.738 0.365 0.730
  Spock 1810.89 2.900 0.345 0.690
  grillbill 1491.99 2.909 0.344 0.688
  wingtsun 1579.13 2.926 0.342 0.684
  socksey 1605.41 2.935 0.341 0.682
  leveler 1624.49 3.202 0.312 0.625
  Leeze 1590.16 3.241 0.309 0.617
  jinnate 1469.69 3.282 0.305 0.609
  wood 1460.21 3.354 0.298 0.596
  houtx 1495.69 3.439 0.291 0.581
  DirtyHarryII 1545.92 3.461 0.289 0.578
  eskenazi 1465.88 3.620 0.276 0.553
  chopos 1479.96 3.903 0.256 0.512
  Frostie 1462.49 5.554 0.180 0.360
  TimDugan 1319.51 5.869 0.170 0.341
  atias 1377.96 7.773 0.129 0.257
  danjonas 1306.57 9.578 0.104 0.209
  jkreed 1300.95 12.259 0.082 0.163
  Cass 1144.34 14.279 0.070 0.140
  JimyB 1225.86 17.375 0.058 0.115
  Mary_in_Florida 1258.68 28.590 0.035 0.070