fibsboard match 2 game 4 forum move 3

[stog]

fibsboard match 2 game 4 forum move 3
forum black going anticlockwise to move 4 3

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

A good roll for us.  We can make the 10 point.  We can make the bar point.  We can make the 4 point.  Or we can make the 3 point.  What to do?

While making points in our own board is worthy, it's better to make points in front of the anchor.  So let's dismiss making the three or the four point.

Making the 10 is nice - it extends the length of the blockade to 5, albeit with a blot in the middle.  And it leaves a blot on the 13 -  hmmmm.... not so good.

Making the bar point gives a solid four point blockade, and cleans up two blots in the process.  What's not to like?  14/7

BTW, if we were at gammon-save, I'd take a good look at 24/20 7/4.  But we're not, so let's not waste brain cells on that move.

Now I'll take a look at the vote and any other analysis and see if I change my mind.

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

looking nextish!

[close]

[ah_clem]

The vote is ten-zip.  Lets move on.

gnubg results, in case anybody is not sure at this point:

Spoiler

Making the bar point is a clear favorite. Next?



Analysis:
    1. Cubeful 2-ply    14/7                         Eq.:  -0.245
       0.451 0.064 0.001 - 0.549 0.115 0.002
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    8/4 7/4                      Eq.:  -0.376 ( -0.131)
       0.421 0.076 0.001 - 0.579 0.136 0.003
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    7/3 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.413 ( -0.169)
       0.413 0.075 0.001 - 0.587 0.142 0.004
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    14/10 13/10                  Eq.:  -0.451 ( -0.206)
       0.405 0.070 0.001 - 0.595 0.149 0.005
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    24/21 7/3                    Eq.:  -0.454 ( -0.209)
       0.411 0.068 0.001 - 0.589 0.172 0.004
     6. Cubeful 2-ply    24/20 7/4                    Eq.:  -0.471 ( -0.226)
       0.407 0.070 0.001 - 0.593 0.173 0.005
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Rollout:

    1. Rollout          14/7                         Eq.:  -0.322
       0.432 0.065 0.004 - 0.568 0.118 0.007 CL  -0.214 CF  -0.322
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]

    2. Rollout          7/3 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.416 ( -0.094)
       0.414 0.068 0.004 - 0.586 0.141 0.007 CL  -0.277 CF  -0.416
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
       
    3. Rollout          8/4 7/4                      Eq.:  -0.419 ( -0.097)
       0.416 0.076 0.005 - 0.584 0.139 0.007 CL  -0.268 CF  -0.419
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
       
    4. Rollout          24/21 7/3                    Eq.:  -0.448 ( -0.126)
       0.412 0.065 0.004 - 0.588 0.172 0.008 CL  -0.340 CF  -0.448
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.013]
       
    5. Rollout          14/10 13/10                  Eq.:  -0.489 ( -0.167)
       0.399 0.069 0.007 - 0.601 0.155 0.014 CL  -0.331 CF  -0.489
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.016]
       
    6. Rollout          24/20 7/4                    Eq.:  -0.508 ( -0.187)
       0.400 0.070 0.005 - 0.600 0.170 0.011 CL  -0.353 CF  -0.508
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 864325504 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[stog]

ok --

Spoiler

14/7

[close]

....... was waiting for zorba but maybe he has connection problems again..... first of all would mr RKB like to cube?

[roadkillbooks]

no double

[stog]

in which case please accept this 6 2 as a token of our esteem...

[roadkillbooks]

13/7,13/11  I was trying hard to find something else to do but nothing else makes sense.  If there is something better, I miss it all the time as this almost seems automatic.  Slotting the 5 point leaves two blots.  I cant even run w/o leaving two blots.  Ill just make this play and hope for a 6-1 next turn.

[ah_clem]

13/7,13/11  I was trying hard to find something else to do but nothing else makes sense. 

Next time you're facing a dilemma like this, feel free to ask me for my advice. 

I'll be happy to oblige. (c: