Game 4 move 3 Forum 33

[roadkillbooks]

Forum rolled another 33... I said dice change before because Im carrying this out on eXtremeGammon as I dont use GNU... picture is small .Score is Blitzxz 2, forum 1 in a match to 5. Im gonna attempt a poll..

[diane]

Spoiler

I have voted for bar/22, 6/2 (2)*, 24/21  which should be bar/22, 6/3 (2)*, 24/21 - by my reckoning - and hopefully you will fix it ;-)..actually I might be able to...

[close]

[diane]

ok, fixed, and it didnt reset the vote from what I can tell.

[adrian]

Someone please add the Remove Vote option.

[roadkillbooks]

ok vote can be removed now

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Bar-22, 13-7, 6-3. We have the better board, I want him to use his entire roll to enter. If he fans we have the yummy choice of cashing or going for the gammon. If he enters 1 checker without hitting we have a similar choice. If he enters only one checker, hitting, its far from disastrous for us.

I think we're all offense here, let's punch his lights out.

[close]

Bob

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

I think we clearly need to point on his head on the three point with 6/3 * (2).  We can then make the 21 one point for an advanced anchor. We have an east cash or too good on his 25% dances plus on entering with an awkward roll we may very well have  a drop as well. If you can point on someone's head on your inner board.. its usually better to do that than hit loose.  A 2 point board is by no means powerhouse.. but a three point board with threats is.  I do see any reason to get slowed down with a hit 30% of the time.

[close]

[adrian]

Thanks RKB, I changed my vote and broked the tie.

[dorbel]

Spoiler

It is a common trap to enter, make the 3pt and look around for another three to play. That will lead to playing 11/8 (my choice, extra builder, more flexibility) or 24/21. I think that both of those are good ways to play this tough roll, but NIHI's plan may be better. However, if you are going to put two on the bar, 21/15*, 6/3* is probably more accurate!

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I assume your play is Enter, 21-15, 6-3. What I dont like about this is it leaves his blot on our bar point, a point we want. Hitting and slotting our bar point is better for an inner board attack should we decide to play for a gammon or if he takes a cube and plays on.

I dont see any immediate value to hitting him in his outer board compared to the alternative.

[close]

Bob

[dorbel]

Spoiler

He'll have to use all his next turn to enter anyway if we hit two, so he cant make our bar. If we want to hit an outfield blot next turn, which we often will, then it will be easier to hit one on the 7pt than on the 15pt. Bringing another checker into the zone immediately is of course good, but we will often do it next turn anyway and the extra 8 pips we gain by hitting on the 15pt will win some more gammons I think. However, probably not much in it. I wouldn't throw a fit if my partner hit on the bar. I still think 6/3*(2), 11/8 is the play anyway, but looks like the anchormen are going to win the vote. I like that fourth.

[close]

[ah_clem]

expurgated rollout

Spoiler

I didn't get a chance to look at this before the voting ended, but my move choice was the same as the vote winner: enter, make the anchor, and point on our opponent's head in our inner board - bar/22 24/21 6/3*(2)

The rollout shows this to be the second best move.  Obviously, entering is forced.  After that, pointing on his head and making a three point homeboard is the clear favorite theme.  But the more aggressive 11/8 is more thematic here  than making the anchor.  We're behind in the match, so rather than wasting time on defense by making an anchor, attacking by bringing another builder into range is the right thing to do.

Playing around with the analysis at different match scores, hitting two checkers does much better than at this match score. I'm not sure whether this is due to the difference between the rollout vs analysis, or whether there's something special about 3-away 4-away that disfavors the double hit. But if we're going to hit twice, hitting on the 15 is consistently better than hitting on the 7, and this was the case for every match score I looked at.


   1. Rollout        bar/22 11/8 6/3*(2)        Eq.:  xxxxx

   2. Rollout        bar/22 24/21 6/3*(2)       Eq.:  ( -0.041)

   3. Rollout        bar/22 21/18 6/3*(2)       Eq.:  ( -0.062)

   4. Rollout        bar/22 13/10 6/3*(2)       Eq.:  ( -0.068)

   5. Rollout        bar/22 21/15* 6/3*         Eq.:  ( -0.069)

   6. Rollout        bar/22 13/7* 6/3*           Eq.:   ( -0.096)
     
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 843091344 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]