Game 1 Move 5 Forum Take?

[ah_clem]

The good news is that we finally get to make a decision.  The bad news is that it's this one. 

Blitzxz has graciously offered us a cube.
Wadaya say?  Take or pass?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Blitzxz has the following assets: an advanced anchor, his bar point and two slotted points in his homeboard. He's on roll with a 50 pip lead.  

We have the following assets:  a whole lot of nothing and two checkers on the bar.  

Unless we can make a second anchor, we're going to be stuck with an ace point game. I say pass.

[close]

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

this is a pass from here to siberia and back

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Run a credit check on anyone who takes this.

[close]

Bob

[ah_clem]

Sounds like the judges have reached a verdict.  We'll put the patient out of it's misery.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

This was a huge pass.  A qunitple whopper to take this sucker.

This rollout has it too good to double, but within the margin of error.  Good cube handling on both sides here.






Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.801 (Money:  +0.784)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +1.009
2. Double, take         +1.494  ( +0.485)
3. Double, pass         +1.000  ( -0.009)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (1.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.714 0.349 0.045 - 0.286 0.036 0.002 CL  +0.801 CF  +1.009
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]
Player Forum owns 2-cube:
  0.719 0.340 0.048 - 0.281 0.035 0.004 CL  +1.779 CF  +1.494
[0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.001 0.001 CL   0.018 CF   0.024]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840185179 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]