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TL4 Team League Predictions

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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #40 on: November 29, 2007, 04:55:31 PM »
If it weren't for the last minute, nothing would get done.
Anonymous

Down To The Last Minute

with only one match played yesterday, not much has changed .. the strategy of the lone contender for first place, Gno Mo Soup, seems to be better suited to the name Last Minute .. but Last Minute showed up for a match yesterday as cis beat don of three.DOG.night

regardless, here's hoping Gno Mo Soup finds a way to get their four remaining matches played necessary to win three team points .. a sweep will be required to pull off the upset .. otherwise, Club Voodoo can uncork the champagne tomorrow at midnight

congrats to all who have finished their matches and thanks to all who have tuned in and read these posts .. i've enjoyed watching the race unfold as the self-appointed commentator .. i hope we get to see a clean, well run, and exciting finish by all .. otherwise, i'll simulate it one last time - lol

with 95.3% of the season completed 489 matches have been played, only 24 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 9,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
95.3%
,
1:20
,
100.0%
,
---
2.3
,
1.3
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.3
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.7
,
2.7
Gno Mo Soup,
35 / 44
,
31 / 35
,
3/3
,
4.7%
,
20:1
,
79.3%
,
1:4
5.9
,
4.9
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
31 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.9%
,
110:1
6.7
,
5.7
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
9.9%
,
9:1
7.3
,
6.3
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 31
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
6.8%
,
14:1
7.7
,
6.7
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.4
,
7.4
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
7.9%
,
12:1
9.2
,
8.2
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.5
,
8.5
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.3
,
9.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.9
,
11.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.4
,
12.4
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 21
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:

      cis (Last Minute) def. don (three.DOG.night)


*  for team points
« Last Edit: November 29, 2007, 05:15:47 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #40 on: November 29, 2007, 04:55:31 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #41 on: November 30, 2007, 11:31:04 AM »
Even the longest day has its end.
Irish Proverb
The Last and Longest Day

no TL matches were played on Thursday .. today, the 30th, is the last day of the season .. no allowance was made in the simulation for calculating odds on whether or not Gno Mo Soup, the last challenger to Club Voodoo, can get its matches played today .. so, best of luck guys

nonetheless, its been a fun season .. i'll post individual stats and a final run of the simulation tomorrow or during the day, if possible .. otherwise, see you all next season
« Last Edit: November 30, 2007, 01:19:13 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #41 on: November 30, 2007, 11:31:04 AM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #42 on: December 01, 2007, 01:11:53 PM »
If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing is like kissing your grandmother with her teeth out.
George Brett (1953 - )
American baseball player and member of the Baseball Hall of Fame
Third baseman for the Kansas City Royals (1973-1993)
Photo Finish

Mort beat vegasvic and souptree beat zyxtcba in must win matches reducing Gno Mo Soup's odds to pass Club Voodoo to 3:1 according to the most recent simulation .. but gnomysTwo has two must win matches with gaspar on No Nuts A**hole (who is on vacation) and michaelsw of Gammonizers that remain unplayed

a discussion has begun as to whether an appeal for forfeits will be held .. we had an interesting shout session last night as the final hours of the extended season wound down .. to my knowledge, no resolution of the issue has been made .. frankly, i'm not sure what the exact procedure in making that decision will be .. it gets particularly tricky, if not sticky, since the league administrator and founders souptree and zyxtcba are both on teams directly and indirectly involved in the decision

i made a strong appeal last night in shouts to play both remaining matches that might effect the championship rather than decide either by forfeit .. a long standing custom in baseball and most other sports leagues is to never, unless absolutely necessary, decide the outcome of a championship game on an umpire or officials call .. i don't ever recall a World Series ending on a called third strike and i certainly don't recall any championship decided by committee

if i can simulate being in charge for a moment, i'd call the race a photo finish and have the season championship decided in a unique kind of overtime by simply allowing gnowmyTwo's matches to be played .. since an acutal tie between Club Voodoo and Gno Mo Soup is not possible, it seems to me that is the best way to decide it

however it works out, it's been a great season with an exciting race that's gone right down to the wire .. i just hope we get to see the race decided across the board

with 96.1% of the season matches completed 493 have been played, only 20 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 2,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

final (?) standings based on actual matches completed can be seen at http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small .. the final simulation results for FIBS Team League season four are below .. remember, the simulation assumes all matches are played - a human behavior much easier to simulate than deal with in real life

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.3
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
72.9%
,
1:3
,
100.0%
,
---
2.2
,
0.9
Gno Mo Soup,
38 / 44
,
33 / 35
,
2/2
,
27.1%
,
3:1
,
100.0%
,
---
2.8
,
1.5
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.8
,
2.5
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
5.6
,
4.3
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
31 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
7.2
,
5.9
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
7.3
,
6.0
,  Gammonizers,
34 / 40
,
28 / 32
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
7.4
,
6.1
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.6
,
7.3
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
35 / 38
,
27 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.7
,
7.4
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.9
,
8.6
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.4
,
9.1
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.6
,
11.3
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.4
,
12.1
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.3
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
20 / 21
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.4
,  Last Orders,
28 / 34
,
20 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.6
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.2
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.7
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:

     souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. zyxtcba (No Nuts A**hole)
*    Mort (Gno Mo Soup) def. vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone)
*    samirah (Gammonizers) def. padski (Last Orders)
     don (three.DOG.night) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)

*  for team points
« Last Edit: December 01, 2007, 02:51:53 PM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #43 on: December 05, 2007, 07:04:44 AM »
Final Individual Stats

Congrats to Club Voodoo for holding on to the lead despite strong challenges by the Cube Sluts, TakeTheMoneyAndRun, and Gno Mo Soup .. in addition to the team win, scuba with a 15-3 record had the best individual performance

while the season ended with uncertainty over talk of an appeal, the final decision declaring the winner "BY IMPERIAL FIAT OF YOUR GODMIN ZYX" was a good one, imo .. Club Voodoo moved into the lead on 03-Nov with 77% of the season completed according to the simulation finished early and held on gamely .. hopefully, the example of Gno Mo Soup's two unfinished games, which if won would have given them the championship, will encourage all teams contending or not in future seasons to finish their games well before the deadline

the season ended with 96.1% of the season matches played .. only 20 matches were unplayed, 493 played .. only four of the nineteen teams completed all their matches: Club Voodoo, TakeTheMoneyAndRun, Cube Sluts, and white punks on dope .. 33 of 54 players, boldfaced below, completed all their matches


Top 25 All Positions
----------------------


[table=]
Rank,  Pos,   Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
1
,
2
,scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
2
,
3
,dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
2
,
3
,krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
4
,
1
,mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
4
,
2
,Zorba,Last Minute,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
6
,
1
,gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
7
,
1
,cis,Last Minute,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
7
,
3
,gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
7
,
3
,Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
10
,
2
,vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
11
,
1
,otto,Ottoman's Empire,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
1
,rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
2
,Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
2
,kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
2
,Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
3
,diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
11
,
3
,souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
18
,
2
,sedat,schigstogsedat,
9
,
6
,
60.0%
19
,
1
,bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
19
,
2
,Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
21
,
3
,resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
22
,
1
,michaelsw,Gammonizers,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
23
,
1
,Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
23
,
2
,elmicho,Smack Slap and Spank,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
23
,
3
,zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
[/table]

Position 1 - 9 point matches
------------------------------


[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost
mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
cis,Last Minute,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
otto,Ottoman's Empire,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
michaelsw,Gammonizers,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
donzaemon,Cube Sluts,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
Pernot_Ricard,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
blotsalot,Last Orders,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
inim,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
factotum,Club Voodoo,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
DeaDice,Lipstick & Testosterone,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
gaspar,No Nuts A**hole,
7
,
10
,
41.2%
don,three.DOG.night,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
manxcat,MOJO,
5
,
11
,
31.3%
Gusssss,UN Trio,
5
,
12
,
29.4%
Ramses,Last But Not Least,
5
,
12
,
29.4%
[/table]

Position 2 - 7 point matches
------------------------------


[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost
scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
Zorba,Last Minute,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
sedat,schigstogsedat,
9
,
6
,
60.0%
Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
elmicho,Smack Slap and Spank,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
sarah,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
jimbok,Ottoman's Empire,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
chopos,UN Trio,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
padski,Last Orders,
6
,
9
,
40.0%
samirah,Gammonizers,
6
,
11
,
35.3%
houtx,three.DOG.night,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
johnwayne,MOJO,
5
,
11
,
31.3%
wyzzz,two dicks and a chick,
3
,
11
,
21.4%
cassandra,Last But Not Least,
3
,
14
,
17.6%
[/table]

Position 3 - 5 point matches
------------------------------


[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost
dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
wordman,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
onion,MOJO,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
Wallenstein,three.DOG.night,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
taylor,Ottoman's Empire,
7
,
8
,
46.7%
stog,schigstogsedat,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
sixty_something,Smack Slap and Spank,
7
,
11
,
38.9%
boomslang,Last Minute,
6
,
11
,
35.3%
Eve,two dicks and a chick,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
erdbeere,Last Orders,
5
,
12
,
29.4%
jasonj,Last But Not Least,
5
,
13
,
27.8%
Tomawaky,Virtual Addicts,
4
,
12
,
25.0%
[/table]
« Last Edit: December 05, 2007, 10:54:43 AM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #43 on: December 05, 2007, 07:04:44 AM »

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