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TL4 Team League Predictions

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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2007, 09:26:25 AM »
I coulda been a contender.
Terry Mallory in the movie "On the Waterfront" (1954)
played by Marlon Brando (1924-2004)
Academy Award-winning American actor
Another Contender Bites the Dust

jimbok on Ottoman's Empire defeats samirah on Gammonizers .. the loss eliminates Gammonizers from contention for the win .. even a sweep of all their ten remaining matches can yield no more than a tie for first with Club Voodoo .. this did not occur even once in the recent simulation of over 12,000 seasons .. further, even if it had, Gammonizers lost their match against Club Voodoo .. thus, once again, the tie break decision would go to Club Voodoo

five teams remain in contention for over taking Club Voodoo .. defending champion Cube Sluts with four remaining matches, all for team points, is the closest to taking the lead but is also the closest to elimination with any loss .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun, the first team to break away with a lead as the pack entered the clubhouse turn, also has four must win team point matches remaining, schigstogsedat has five

two teams have a little more flexibility in that they can lose one of their remaining team point matches, but not more than one .. Gno Mo Soup has seven team point matches remaining, Lipstick & Testosterone eight .. should either of these teams sweep their 46 team point total would surpass that of the three other contenders

Club Voodoo remains the big favorite, according to the simulation results below .. with factotum's win yesterday over DeaDice, the lipstick and testosterone accelerant of L& T, Club Voodoo became the first team to finish all team league matches and remain the team with the highest wining percentage at 35/54 (65%) - yet another kuddo for factotum, scuba, and gumpi

MB/mr

introduced in the last post, MB/mr (matches behind/matches remaining) provides a quick way to see how many team point matches must be won in order for a contending team to catch or pass the leader .. i've now automated the MB/mr calculation and it seems to be working .. boldfaced pairs indicate a team is still in contention .. italicized pairs are displayed for teams out of contention for first place

for pride matches back in the pack, MB/mr is also useful .. for example, there is a tight race for finishing in the top ten in this field of 19 teams where five teams are clustered at about 8 "back" .. mr becomes the more important metric in this contest and provides at a glance how many matches remaining each team has to play

The Race Enters the Stretch Run

with 85.6% of the season completed and 439 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 12,000 iterations or seasons is below

[table=]
Order,  Back,   Team Name,     TP/Max    ,     MP/Max    ,     MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,   Odds
1.4
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
35 / 35
,
---
,
75.6%
,
1:3
3.8
,
2.4
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
9.5%
,
9:1
4.0
,
2.6
,  Cube Sluts,
32 / 44
,
28 / 32
,
4/4
,
10.6%
,
8:1
6.2
,
4.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.6
,
5.2
,  Virtual Addicts,
33 / 42
,
25 / 33
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.8
,
5.4
,  schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 33
,
5/5
,
2.1%
,
46:1
7.6
,
6.2
,  Gammonizers,
24 / 42
,
25 / 35
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
8.5
,
7.1
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 38
,
6/7
,
0.9%
,
110:1
8.8
,
7.4
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
8.0
,  Last Minute,
24 / 42
,
24 / 34
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
9.6
,
8.2
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.7
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.7
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
22 / 46
,
20 / 34
,
7/8
,
1.2%
,
82:1
10.1
,
8.7
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.2
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.4
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.5
,  MOJO,
21 / 36
,
17 / 28
,
7/5
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.6
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:

   factotum (Club Voodoo) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
   wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. souptree (Gno Mo Soup)
*  jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. samirah (Gammonizers)

--- posted, not confirmed
   jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. padski (Last Orders)
 

« Last Edit: November 11, 2007, 01:12:30 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2007, 09:26:25 AM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2007, 09:26:18 PM »
"Sometimes opportunity knocks, but most of the time
it sneaks up and then quietly steals away."

Doug Larson (1902-1981)
English racer
Knock, knock .. Who's There?

three .. three who?

Cube Sluts are three away, that's who!

Backwoods finishes his team league matches with a critical win over kristoffer of Virtual Addicts .. all the remaining Cube Sluts matches are now awaiting donzaemon's return from Las Vegas where we hear he's still playing in Sunday's matches

Virtual Addicts teammate Tomawaky defeated wordman forcing Lipstick & Testosterone to sweep all its remaining seven team point matches to have a shot at a winning season

with 86.2% of the season completed and 442 matches played as of 2:10 PM CST, the results of a simulation of 7,000 iterations or seasons are below .. 71 matches remain to be played to finish the season with 100% participation by all teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds
1.5
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
35 / 35
,
---
,
68.2%
,
1:2
3.1
,
1.6
Cube Sluts,
35 / 44
,
29 / 32
,
3/3
,
19.2%
,
4:1
3.9
,
2.4
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
9.3%
,
10:1
6.2
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.3
,
4.8
,  Virtual Addicts,
37 / 40
,
26 / 32
,
2/1
,
-
,
-
7.0
,
5.5
,  schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 33
,
5/5
,
2.1%
,
46:1
7.7
,
6.2
,  Gammonizers,
24 / 42
,
25 / 35
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
8.4
,
6.9
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
8.6
,
7.1
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 38
,
6/7
,
1.0%
,
103:1
9.0
,
7.5
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.7
,
8.2
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
10.2
,
8.7
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
10.2
,
8.7
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
11.6
,
10.1
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
23 / 44
,
20 / 33
,
7/7
,
0.2%
,
635:1
15.5
,
14.0
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.2
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.7
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.7
,  MOJO,
22 / 34
,
17 / 27
,
7/4
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.5
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Sunday Afternoon Results:
*   cis (Last Minute) def. manxcat (MOJO)
*   Backwoods (Cube Sluts) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
*   Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts) def. wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone)

--- earlier matches confirmed
    jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. padski (Last Orders)
 
« Last Edit: November 11, 2007, 10:27:25 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #21 on: November 11, 2007, 09:26:18 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2007, 12:13:19 AM »
If you want to win, punch the best player
on the other team when nobody is looking

-Tadpole


Two Down, Two to Go!

donzaemon says he didn't win in Vegas after all, but he's back with a vengeance on Veterans Day defeating Schigolch in a 9-8 match critical to both contending teams .. with the win, donzaemon is now two wins away from single-handedly passing Club Voodoo and threatening an unprecedented four-peat for the Cube Sluts .. their destiny is in his hands, as teammates Backwoods and diane have finished all their matches .. the loss eliminated schigstogsedat from contention for a win

in an earlier match, Gammonizers' michaelsw beat DeaDice eliminating Lipstick & Testosterone from contention .. this leaves only two remaining teams in contention for a win, TakeTheMoneyAndRun in third, according to the simulation results, and Gno Mo Soup, well back and still at long odds

with 86.9% of the season completed and 446 matches played, the results of a season simulation of 3,000 iterations or seasons are below

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds
1.7
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
35 / 35
,
---
,
54.9%
,
1:1
2.5
,
0.8
Cube Sluts,
38 / 44
,
30 / 32
,
2/2
,
33.8%
,
2:1
4.0
,
2.3
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
10.7%
,
8:1
5.8
,
4.1
,  Virtual Addicts,
37 / 40
,
28 / 32
,
2/1
,
-
,
-
6.4
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.2
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
8.4
,
6.7
,  schigstogsedat,
30 / 42
,
21 / 32
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
8.5
,
6.8
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
8.7
,
7.0
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 38
,
6/7
,
0.7%
,
143:1
9.4
,
7.7
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 29
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.8
,
8.1
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.4
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
10.2
,
8.5
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
12.2
,
10.5
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
20 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
13.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.0
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.5
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.6
,  MOJO,
22 / 34
,
17 / 26
,
7/4
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.3
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Afternoon Matches:

    kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. johnwayne (MOJO)
    kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. sarah (white punks on dope)
*  michaelsw (Gammonizers) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)

--- Posted, not confirmed
*  donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)
« Last Edit: November 13, 2007, 12:40:31 AM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2007, 03:58:17 PM »
“Sex alleviates tension. Love causes it.”
Woody Allen (1935- )
three-time Academy Award-winning American film director, writer, actor,
jazz musician, comedian, and playwright
Tension Mounts

Pernot_Ricard defeats fellow contender gnomysTwo in a must win match for TakeTheMoneyAndRun .. with the loss, Gno Mo Soup now must also win out in team point matches to remain in contention .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun is now three match points away from pulling off a championship .. Cube Sluts needs two more to contend .. a team point loss by either will eliminate them from contention .. meanwhile Club Voodoo sits ready to celebrate should either stumble

gnomysTwo, idle for some time, played two other matches .. winning a team point match against Gusssss of UN Trio and losing against Ramses of Last, But Not Least .. team points had already been decided in the latter match .. Gno Mo Soup must now win five of their five remaining team point matches to have a shot at the win

with 88.3% of season completed and 453 matches played, results of a 6,000 iteration or season simulation are below .. remember, the order of the teams in the simulation assumes all players on all teams play all remaining matches .. actual order of finish will depend on actual matches completed .. as the season comes to a close the standings page at the Team League home page www.souptree.net/fibs_league will become a more accurate reflection of actal order of finish

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds
1.7
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
54.6%
,
1:1
2.5
,
0.8
Cube Sluts,
38 / 44
,
30 / 32
,
2/2
,
33.6%
,
2:1
3.5
,
1.8
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.3%
,
8:1
6.3
,
4.6
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.4
,
4.7
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.2
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
7.5
,
5.8
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
8.1
,
6.4
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
23 / 36
,
5/5
,
0.5%
,
181:1
8.4
,
6.7
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
9.7
,
8.0
,  Ottoman's Empire,
28 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
5/4
,
-
,
-
9.8
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.4
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
11.5
,
9.8
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
12.3
,
10.6
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
20 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
13.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
13.9
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
19 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
17.2
,
15.5
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.6
,  MOJO,
22 / 34
,
17 / 26
,
7/4
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.3
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:
*   Pernot_Ricard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup)
     Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def.  gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup)
     Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def.  Gusssss (UN Trio)
*   gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def.  Gusssss (UN Trio)
*   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
     padski (Last Orders) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
     kristoffer (Virtual Addicts) def. sarah (white punks on dope)
« Last Edit: November 14, 2007, 04:49:49 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2007, 03:58:17 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2007, 03:45:25 PM »
"Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity."
Anonymous
Tension Holds

there were only three matches played yesterday between five teams out of contention for first place .. every match is important, but these had no impact on the race for first .. so, there was not much change in the leader board other than in the race to see which teams can make it into the top ten

just before posting this morning, gnowysTwo of Gno Mo Soup defeated MOJO's manxcat, but team points had already been decided

What If

there is no playoff this season, but it was discussed and may be added to the rules for next season .. one playoff format discussed was simply creating a playoff between the top four teams at the end of the season .. the winner of that playoff would then be declared the winner of the season .. the exact nature of the playoff was never announced, but would likely follow the same Team Point approach as the regular season .. regardless, what if there were a playoff? what would the chances of making a playoff look like for teams this season?

the table below includes the playoff columns again .. these have been corrected and adjusted based on boomslang's comments in an earier post .. to my surprise, white punks on dope, near the top of the leader board since day one, did not make the playoffs in any of the simulation runs .. sixth place was their highest finish in any of the 9,000 plus seasons .. remember, the model assumes all teams complete all matches .. 42 match points was the minimum required for a fourth place finish in this simulation run

the playoff columns below assume a team makes the playoffs when it finishes in the top 4 positions

Simulation Results

with 89.1% of the season completed and 457 matches played, the results of a simulation of 9,000 iterations or seasons is below


[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.7
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
55.0%
,
1:1
,
100.0%
,
---
2.5
,
0.8
Cube Sluts,
38 / 44
,
30 / 32
,
2/2
,
33.3%
,
2:1
,
94.8%
,
1:18
3.5
,
1.8
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.0%
,
8:1
,
79.8%
,
1:4
6.3
,
4.6
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.5%
,
2:1
6.4
,
4.7
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
29.0%
,
2:1
6.8
,
5.1
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
32.8%
,
2:1
7.5
,
5.8
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
287:1
8.0
,
6.3
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
5/5
,
0.7%
,
150:1
,
20.2%
,
4:1
8.4
,
6.7
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
17.3%
,
5:1
9.0
,
7.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
7.8%
,
12:1
10.0
,
8.3
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.7
,
9.0
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
11.5
,
9.8
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
3.4%
,
28:1
11.7
,
10.0
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
13.8
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
19 / 27
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.0
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.1
,
15.4
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
15.8
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.3
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:
    DeaDice (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. bardancer (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
    vegasvic (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. houtx (three.DOG.night)
*  Otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. manxcat (MOJO)
Morning Match:
    gnowysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. manxcat (MOJO)
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #25 on: November 15, 2007, 08:14:53 PM »
All lovely things must have an ending
All lovely things must fade and die
And Youth, that's now so bravely spending
Must beg a penny by and by

— From "All Lovely Things"
Conrad Aiken (1889–1973)
Pulitzer Prize-winning American author and poet
End of an Era

with 14 other fibsters watching, blotsalot defeated donzaemon with an overwhelming gammon after a re-double accepted by donz .. with a hard to beat 8-0 lead, blotsalot went on to win in the Crawford game putting an end to the Cube Sluts remarkable attempt at four consecutive championships

nonetheless, a finish in the top four for the Cube Sluts is almost assured .. so, hat's off for an excellent defense of last season's title .. the gradual attrition of team after team needing consecutive wins of all remaining matches to contend this season illustrates the statistical rarity of winning three in a row anytime of almost anything .. winning three TL championships in a row is a record likely to stand for some time .. no simulation model is needed to make that statement

only two teams now remain in the running to overtake Club Voodoo .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun must win three of three remaining team point matches .. GNo Mo Soup must win five of five

remember, the playoff calculations, re-introduced in the last post, are just hypothetical .. there will be no playoffs this season .. the calculations are included here just for the curious

with 89.3% of season completed and 458 matches played, results of a simulation of 7,000 iterations or seasons is below


[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.9%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.0
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.4%
,
8:1
,
82.2%
,
1:5
3.2
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
86.3%
,
1:6
6.2
,
5.1
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.3%
,
2:1
6.3
,
5.2
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
30.1%
,
2:1
6.6
,
5.5
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 35
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
34.3%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
356:1
7.8
,
6.7
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
5/5
,
0.7%
,
139:1
,
23.5%
,
3:1
8.2
,
7.1
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
20.4%
,
4:1
8.8
,
7.7
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.8%
,
10:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.5
,
9.4
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
3566:1
11.5
,
10.4
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
3.7%
,
26:1
11.6
,
10.5
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.0
,
13.9
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.1
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Morning Results:

blotsalot (Last Orders) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2007, 05:02:52 PM »
"probability [is] a measurable degree of certainty; necessity and chance;
moral versus mathematical expectation; a priori an a posteriori probability;
expectation of winning when players are divided according to dexterity"

from The Art of Conjecture (1713)
Jacob Bernoulli (1654–1705)
Swiss mathematician

One Is a Lonely Number

only one match played since yesterday's demise of the Cube Sluts .. sedat defeated Gammonizers' samirah moving schigstogsedat into fourth place according to the simulation .. if we were having playoffs, it would still be an exciting race for that fourth place position

Law of Large Numbers

the total number of iterations for this simulation run was more than 32,000, the largest yet recorded .. unintentionally, i walked away from the computer as it continued to grind away .. comparing these results with the previous simulation run is an interesting exercise that demonstrates an important historical theorem in probability, the Law of Large Numbers .. theoretically, the more samples in a data set, the more likely the observed or measured probability is to converge on the actual probability

so, how many iterations in a simulation run is enough? the answer depends on the observation one is attempting to measure .. for these runs, i've used a very casual approach .. iterations have previously ranged from 3,000 to 14,000 or more .. i've chosen an end point in the past based on visual observation of when key values have reached a reasonable point of stability .. the current run of 32,000 was simply based on how long i was away from the computer .. is it more or less accurate than the previous run of 7,000 iterations?

the law of large numbers, first defined by Jacob Bernoulli one of the first mathematicians to seriously investigate games of chance, says that this run is more accurate .. why then did the odds for Gno Mo Soup decline from 139:1 (a 0.07% chance of winning) to 182:1 (a 0.05% chance of winning)? surely, the one match between two non-contending teams, Gammonizers and schigstogsedat, had nothing to do with it .. frankly, i'm surprised at the difference, but can't give you an exact reason for it

according to Bernoulli, the law of large numbers and the fallacy of small numbers says that the result over 32,000 iterations is closer to the theoretical probability or is more accurate than the results of the 7,000 iteration simulations .. if anything useful can be taken away from this numerical diversion into the history of probability, it is that the 51 wins observed in over 7,000 iterations in the last post is simply a smaller sample than the 175 wins observed in the 32,000 plus iterations of this one .. therefore, according to the law of large numbers the result of this run is more reliable for Gno Mo Soup's odds to win

regardless, only a few serious mathematicians or statisticians among us would care .. for the purpose of "seeing" the standings in a different and perhaps more meaningful way, i think the simulation results have reached a point of stability and consistency that meet all but the most serious purists satisfaction .. if you're one of the later, please get in touch with me and i'll happily let you sniff around within the innards of the model all you like .. if not, i hope you've found the simulations as interesting to read and use as i have

(after posting this, Mort of Gno Mo Soup pointed out that technically Gno Mo Soup can lose one of it's remaining 5 team point matches and still win the TL season .. he may be right .. if Gno Mo Soup can tie Club Voodoo with 42 team points and 35 match points, theoretically possible, Gno Mo Soup would win the tiebreaking decision since they beat Club Voodoo in their heads-up match .. while this is apparently true, the model would have given both Club Voodoo and Gno Mo Soup credit for wins in those seasons .. thus, despite the fact that the model does not (at present) use the heads-up match level of tiebreak decision making, i think the overall results are still valid .. regardless, i've manually updated the Mb/mr value for Gno Mo Soup to reflect this unusual situation - thanks for the heads up, Mort .. i'll look at fixing the model later .. but to achieve such a tiebreak situation, Gno Mo Soup would have to lose no more than one of its 12 remaining matches .. frankly, winning 5 of 5 remaining team point matches may be easier .. at least now we know who another purist is)

with 89.5% of season completed and 459 matches played, the results of a 32,000 iteration simulation are below

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.7%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.0
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.8%
,
8:1
,
81.7%
,
1:4
3.2
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
86.3%
,
1:6
5.2
,
4.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
45.3%
,
1:1
6.2
,
5.1
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
32.5%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
287:1
7.7
,
6.6
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
23.8%
,
3:1
7.8
,
6.7
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.5%
,
182:1
,
21.9%
,
4:1
8.2
,
7.1
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
20.0%
,
4:1
8.8
,
7.7
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.3%
,
11:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.5
,
9.4
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
4568:1
11.5
,
10.4
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
3.5%
,
28:1
11.5
,
10.4
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.0
,
13.9
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.1
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Results:
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. samirah (Gammonizers)

Morning Results (not included):
   gaspar (No Nuts A**hole) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)
« Last Edit: November 16, 2007, 08:57:39 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2007, 03:12:58 PM »
The road to wisdom?
Well its plain and simple to express:
Err and err and err again,
but less and less and less.

Piet Hein  (1905-1996)
Danish scientist, mathematician, inventor, author, and poet
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow

TL is creeping at a "petty pace" while these posts "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" continue to document another day with one TL match played .. gaspar on No Nuts A**hole defeated Ramses on Last, But Not Least .. team points had already been decided, but the win pushes No Nuts A**hole back into fourth place, according to the simulation results .. maybe tomorrow there will be news to report .. until then news from the innards of the model continues to make headlines

Whoops

while trying to fix the MB/mr calculation to accommodate the situation Mort pointed out yesterday, i found a little bug in the way team points were used in determining the winner .. wins against white punks on dope were reported correctly, but not being used in the actual win calculation .. it was a minor problem with little impact in current rankings and estimates .. the most significant change seems to be the improved odds for my team Smack, Slap, and Spank to make the hypothetical playoffs

Bill Gates once said, "There are no significant bugs in our released software that any significant number of users want fixed" .. thanks to Mort pointing out a subtle glitch in the way MB/mr is calculated, i found the other bug in a different area of the program demanding immediate attention .. so it goes in the life cycle of any software design ..

Gno Mo Soup's odds to win calculation decreased moderately again .. whether this had to do with the law of large numbers or the omnipresence of bugs in computer programs, i have no clue ..

the fix for MB/mr is still too subtle for repair this morning .. so, the model still reports MB/mr of 5/5 for Gno Mo Soup when in fact it is 4/5 .. it is manually corrected below .. all others are correct

with 89.7% of the season completed and 460 matches played, the results of a simulation of 24,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure asssumed below is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.8%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
1.9
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 35
,
3/3
,
11.6%
,
8:1
,
83.6%
,
1:5
3.2
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
86.9%
,
1:7
5.8
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
39.5%
,
2:1
6.2
,
5.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
31.6%
,
2:1
7.5
,
6.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
457:1
7.6
,
6.5
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
24.3%
,
3:1
8.0
,
6.9
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.5%
,
197:1
,
21.0%
,
4:1
8.4
,
7.3
,  Last Minute,
27 / 42
,
25 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
19.4%
,
4:1
9.0
,
7.9
,  Ottoman's Empire,
31 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.0%
,
12:1
9.2
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.9
,
8.8
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
457:1
11.0
,
9.9
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
6.0%
,
16:1
11.9
,
10.8
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.2
,
14.1
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.9
,
14.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.5
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 18
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:
   gaspar (No Nuts A**hole) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)
« Last Edit: November 17, 2007, 05:54:39 PM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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FIBS Board backgammon forum

Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2007, 03:12:58 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2007, 08:20:35 PM »
Individual Stats

with 89.9% of season completed or 461 matches played, 52 remain unplayed .. only the leaders Club Voodoo and white punks on dope have completed all their matches .. 21 of 54 players, boldfaced below, have completed all their matches

Congrats to scuba on Club Voodoo who has the best individual record locked up with 15 wins and only 3 losses


Top 25 All Positions
------------------------

[table=]
Rank,  Pos,   Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
1
,
2
,scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
2
,
3
,dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
2
,
3
,krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
4
,
1
,mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
5
,
1
,cis,Last Minute,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
5
,
2
,vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
7
,
2
,Zorba,Last Minute,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
8
,
3
,gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
8
,
3
,Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
10
,
1
,gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
7
,
4
,
63.6%
11
,
1
,bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
11
,
1
,otto,Ottoman's Empire,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
11
,
1
,rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
14
,
2
,sedat,schigstogsedat,
8
,
5
,
61.5%
15
,
2
,Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
15
,
2
,kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
15
,
3
,diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
18
,
2
,Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
19
,
2
,Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
19
,
3
,zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
21
,
3
,resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
22
,
1
,michaelsw,Gammonizers,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
22
,
2
,BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
24
,
1
,Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
24
,
3
,souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
[/table]

Position 1 - 9 point matches
----------------------------------

[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
mradica,Virtual Addicts,
13
,
5
,
72.2%
cis,Last Minute,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
7
,
4
,
63.6%
bardancer,Smack Slap and Spank,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
otto,Ottoman's Empire,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
rollingfool,two dicks and a chick,
10
,
6
,
62.5%
michaelsw,Gammonizers,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
Pernot_Ricard,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
blotsalot,Last Orders,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
inim,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
donzaemon,Cube Sluts,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
factotum,Club Voodoo,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
gaspar,No Nuts A**hole,
6
,
8
,
42.9%
DeaDice,Lipstick & Testosterone,
6
,
9
,
40.0%
Gusssss,UN Trio,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
Ramses,Last But Not Least,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
don,three.DOG.night,
4
,
10
,
28.6%
manxcat,MOJO,
4
,
10
,
28.6%
[/table]

Position 2 - 7 point matches
----------------------------------

[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
scuba,Club Voodoo,
15
,
3
,
83.3%
vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
4
,
69.2%
Zorba,Last Minute,
11
,
5
,
68.8%
sedat,schigstogsedat,
8
,
5
,
61.5%
Backwoods,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
kristoffer,Virtual Addicts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
Slipshod,No Nuts A**hole,
10
,
7
,
58.8%
Mort,Gno Mo Soup,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
7
,
6
,
53.8%
elmicho,Smack Slap and Spank,
9
,
8
,
52.9%
sarah,white punks on dope,
9
,
9
,
50.0%
jimbok,Ottoman's Empire,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
chopos,UN Trio,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
padski,Last Orders,
6
,
8
,
42.9%
houtx,three.DOG.night,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
samirah,Gammonizers,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
johnwayne,MOJO,
5
,
11
,
31.3%
wyzzz,two dicks and a chick,
3
,
11
,
21.4%
cassandra,Last But Not Least,
3
,
13
,
18.8%
[/table]

Position 3 - 5 point matches
----------------------------------

[table=]
Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, Win %
dorbel,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
krautlover,Gammonizers,
14
,
4
,
77.8%
gumpi,Club Voodoo,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
Kari_Grandi,UN Trio,
12
,
6
,
66.7%
diane,Cube Sluts,
11
,
7
,
61.1%
zyxtcba,No Nuts A**hole,
9
,
7
,
56.3%
resh_lakish,white punks on dope,
10
,
8
,
55.6%
souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
8
,
7
,
53.3%
Wallenstein,three.DOG.night,
8
,
8
,
50.0%
onion,MOJO,
8
,
9
,
47.1%
taylor,Ottoman's Empire,
7
,
8
,
46.7%
stog,schigstogsedat,
8
,
10
,
44.4%
wordman,Lipstick & Testosterone,
7
,
9
,
43.8%
sixty_something,Smack Slap and Spank,
7
,
10
,
41.2%
boomslang,Last Minute,
6
,
11
,
35.3%
Eve,two dicks and a chick,
6
,
12
,
33.3%
erdbeere,Last Orders,
5
,
10
,
33.3%
jasonj,Last But Not Least,
5
,
13
,
27.8%
Tomawaky,Virtual Addicts,
4
,
12
,
25.0%
[/table]

« Last Edit: November 17, 2007, 11:56:58 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #29 on: November 17, 2007, 10:31:56 PM »
Individual Matches Remaining (imr)

with 89.9% of season completed or 461 matches played, 52 matches remain unplayed or 104 individual matches .. the following players have 3 or more matches remaining, a total of 76 individual matches - nearly 75% of all remaining individual matches .. the season has been extended to end on Nov 30th rather than the 15th .. the matches represented on this list could determine the final standings .. get'em played ladies and gentlemen .. let's have the season be determined by actual matches played not forfeits or a simulation

[table=]
Pos,   Player,   Team,  Won,  Lost, imr
1
,gnomysTwo,Gno Mo Soup,
7
,
4
,
7
1
,cis,Last Minute,
9
,
4
,
5
2
,vegasvic,Lipstick & Testosterone,
9
,
4
,
5
2
,sedat,schigstogsedat,
8
,
5
,
5
1
,michaelsw,Gammonizers,
7
,
6
,
5
2
,BushSucks,TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
7
,
6
,
5
1
,gaspar,No Nuts A**hole,
6
,
8
,
4
2
,padski,Last Orders,
6
,
8
,
4
1
,don,three.DOG.night,
4
,
10
,
4
1
,manxcat,MOJO,
4
,
10
,
4
2
,wyzzz,two dicks and a chick,
3
,
11
,
4
1
,Schigolch,schigstogsedat,
8
,
7
,
3
3
,souptree,Gno Mo Soup,
8
,
7
,
3
3
,taylor,Ottoman's Empire,
7
,
8
,
3
1
,DeaDice,Lipstick & Testosterone,
6
,
9
,
3
1
,Gusssss,UN Trio,
5
,
10
,
3
1
,Ramses,Last But Not Least,
5
,
10
,
3
2
,samirah,Gammonizers,
5
,
10
,
3
3
,erdbeere,Last Orders,
5
,
10
,
3
[/table]
« Last Edit: November 18, 2007, 12:00:54 AM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #30 on: November 18, 2007, 04:20:13 PM »
No matter how noble and special people want to
make the playoffs out to be... it's a crapshoot.

Orel Hershiser (1958- )
Cy Young Award and World Series MVP winner with the 1988 L.A. Dodgers.
Close Race for Fourth Gets Closer

Last Minute wins a pair, one for team points, and schigstogsedat wins one for match points only as both teams gain a little ground on No Nuts A**hole in fourth .. five teams are easily within striking distance to overtake the A**holes in the race for fourth place bragging rights

BushSucks of TakeTheMoneyAndRun lost to Zorba on Last Minute, but team points had already been decided .. BushSucks has four more matches to play, three are for team points .. a sweep in the team point matches will be required for TakeTheMoneyAndRun to win

90.3% of the season is completed with 463 matches played .. the results of a 12,000 iteration simulation are below .. 50 matches remain unplayed .. a list of remaining individual matches for players with 3 or more unplayed is in the previous post .. prior to that is a set of individual stats still relatively current

playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure asssumed below is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
87.6%
,
1:7
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.0
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
35 / 44
,
30 / 34
,
3/3
,
11.9%
,
7:1
,
82.3%
,
1:5
3.3
,
2.2
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
83.4%
,
1:5
5.8
,
4.7
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
38.9%
,
2:1
6.1
,
5.0
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
32.3%
,
2:1
6.7
,
5.6
,  Last Minute,
30 / 42
,
27 / 34
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
,
30.6%
,
2:1
7.5
,
6.4
,  Gammonizers,
27 / 42
,
26 / 34
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
24.8%
,
3:1
7.6
,
6.5
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
479:1
8.0
,
6.9
,  Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
24 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.5%
,
203:1
,
20.7%
,
4:1
9.2
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.9
,
8.8
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
799:1
10.7
,
9.6
,  Ottoman's Empire,
32 / 38
,
25 / 30
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1499:1
11.0
,
9.9
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
24 / 42
,
22 / 32
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
,
6.1%
,
15:1
11.9
,
10.8
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.2
,
14.1
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.5
,  MOJO,
23 / 32
,
17 / 24
,
7/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
13 / 17
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Results:
*   cis (Last Minute) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
    Zorba (Last Minute) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)

--- Posted, not confirmed
    sedat (schigstogsedat) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)

* for team points
« Last Edit: November 18, 2007, 08:29:53 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #31 on: November 19, 2007, 03:07:36 PM »
It ain't over till it's over
Yogi Berra (1925 - )
Hall of Fame NY Yankee catcher/manager
Almost Over

vegasvic of Lipstick & Testosterone beat BushSucks of TakeTheMoneyAndRun taking them out of contention for the win .. (worthy of note, on reading this post and after the match yesterday: vegasvic shouts: btw i did not beat bush , fibs dice beat the poor guy) .. BushSucks also played two other matches yesterday winning one for team points against Gammonizers' samirah; losing a second against Mort on Gno Mo Soup where team points had already been decided

focus for this season's championship run now shifts to the longshot Gno Mo Soup, the last team with a chance at catching or passing Club Voodoo .. gnomysTwo with 7 matches remaining to be played is the lynchpin of their hopes with 2 critical matches for team points remaining and 2 other must win matches where Gno Mo Soup faces double match point with one loss already on the books .. Mort faces vegasvic in their remaining match for team points .. with team point wins in 4 of 5 of those matches, Gno Mo Soup can catch and potentially tie Club Voodoo .. in case of a tie, Gno Mo Soup's win over Club Voodoo earlier in the season would decide the tiebreak .. with wins in all 5 team point matches, Gno Mo Soup could win the championship outright .. but the simulation below gives odds of 114:1 for such an upset

therefore, Club Voodoo has iced down the champagne in the clubhouse for the celebration, but as Yogi said, "It ain't over till it's over"

with 91.2% of the season completed and 468 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 7,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams .. the simulation order assumes all remaining matches are played

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
99.1%
,
1:114
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
1.9
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
90.1%
,
1:9
3.4
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
81.2%
,
1:4
5.9
,
4.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
37.9%
,
2:1
6.2
,
5.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
31.3%
,
2:1
6.8
,
5.7
,  Last Minute,
30 / 42
,
27 / 34
,
4/4
,
-
,
-
,
32.4%
,
2:1
7.8
,
6.7
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
25 / 36
,
4/5
,
0.9%
,
114:1
,
24.2%
,
3:1
7.8
,
6.7
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1744:1
8.3
,
7.2
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
13.5%
,
6:1
9.4
,
8.3
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.0
,
8.9
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
27 / 42
,
23 / 32
,
5/5
,
-
,
-
,
9.1%
,
10:1
10.0
,
8.9
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
2325:1
10.2
,
9.1
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1744:1
12.2
,
11.1
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.2
,
14.1
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 27
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.9
,
14.8
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.8
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.8
,
16.7
,  MOJO,
24 / 30
,
17 / 23
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:

*   BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. samirah (Gammonizers)
     Mort (Gno Mo Soup) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
*   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
*   michaelsw (Gammonizers) def. manxcat (MOJO)
*   otto (Ottoman's Empire) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)

--- Earlier match confirmed
     sedat (schigstogsedat) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)

* for team points
« Last Edit: November 19, 2007, 06:08:24 PM by sixty_something »
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FIBS Board backgammon forum

Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #31 on: November 19, 2007, 03:07:36 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #32 on: November 20, 2007, 04:06:55 PM »
The race is not to the swift,
nor the battle to the strong,
but that's the way to bet

Grantland Rice (1880–1954)
American sportswriter
Ten To Go

souptree of Gno Mo Soup beat erdbeere of Last Orders, but team points had already been decided .. the win gives them a slight improvement in their odds to win, but they remain longshots at 83:1 .. Gno Mo Soup has 10 matches remaining to be played with only 10 days remaining in the extended season .. gnomysTwo has 7 of those matches .. come on out and play gnomys, we're waiting on you

No Nuts A**hole lost two team points matches yesterday dropping them out of the top four into twelfth place.. Last Minute with a win moves up into fourth, according to the simulation .. but, remember, the simulation assumes all remaining matches are played by all teams .. final rankings are determined by total team and match points earned

with 92.0% of the season completed and 472 matches played, the results for a simulation of over 14,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
98.8%
,
1:83
,
100.0%
,
---
2.9
,
1.8
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
95.2%
,
1:20
3.4
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
85.1%
,
1:6
5.7
,
4.6
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
28 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
44.7%
,
1:1
6.0
,
4.9
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
36.4%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.4%
,
268:1
7.6
,
6.5
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
26 / 36
,
4/5
,
1.2%
,
83:1
,
29.0%
,
2:1
8.1
,
7.0
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
18.0%
,
5:1
9.0
,
7.9
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.1
,
8.0
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
31 / 40
,
24 / 31
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.4%
,
11:1
9.8
,
8.7
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
388:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
25 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
636:1
10.0
,
8.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.5%
,
211:1
12.2
,
11.1
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.3
,
14.2
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 26
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:
*  Zorba (Last Minute) def. vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone)
*  manxcat (MOJO) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)
   souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. erdbeere (Last Orders)

--- posted, not confirmed
*  DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)

*  for team points
« Last Edit: November 20, 2007, 05:57:03 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #33 on: November 21, 2007, 03:56:13 PM »
Turn out the lights, the party's over,
they say all good things must end.
Call it tonight, the party's over.
And tomorrow starts the same old thing again.

The Party's Over by Willie Nelson (1933- )
Texas singer/songwriter
old-school cowboy-hippie troubadour
Not Much New

another day with only one TL match played .. cis beats DeaDice, completing a team sweep, moving Last Minute into a stronger hold on fourth place in the simulation, but they'll have to win at least one more team point match and finish the rest to secure it .. Virtual Addicts and white punks on dope are sitting on 38 team points holding onto a tie which would go to the punks unless the Addicts can win another match point

as the season winds down, the simulation model results are getting almost academic .. the first three places seem secure .. the race is down to who will finish fourth and whether Gno Mo Soup will finish at all .. down in the pack a few other matches for nothing but pride will determine the final order of finish

regardless, i've enjoyed posting and will continue to post results through the end of the season as more matches are finished .. once the season ends, i'll post the final individual stats 

40 more matches remain to be played .. with 92.2% of the season completed and 473 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 10,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.1
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
98.9%
,
1:88
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
1.9
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
93.9%
,
1:15
3.4
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
83.6%
,
1:5
5.5
,
4.4
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
29 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
47.1%
,
1:1
6.0
,
4.9
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
37.0%
,
2:1
7.4
,
6.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
382:1
7.6
,
6.5
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
26 / 36
,
4/5
,
1.1%
,
88:1
,
28.8%
,
2:1
8.1
,
7.0
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
17.7%
,
5:1
8.9
,
7.8
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.6
,
8.5
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
31 / 40
,
24 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
5.1%
,
18:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.2%
,
621:1
9.9
,
8.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
25 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
1421:1
10.0
,
8.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.3%
,
301:1
12.1
,
11.0
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 28
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.3
,
14.2
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 26
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.8
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
15.9
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.5
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.9
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Matches:
   cis (Last Minute) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)

--- earlier match confirmed
*  DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)

*  for team points
« Last Edit: November 21, 2007, 08:15:02 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #34 on: November 22, 2007, 04:41:28 PM »
With the catching ends the pleasure of the chase
Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865)
16th US President 1861-65
gnomysTwo Takes Three

Gno Mo Soup still needs to win 4 of 5 team point matches to take the season championship from Club Voodoo, but gnomysTwo played and won three matches yesterday, none for team points .. Gno Mo Soup's odds to win have now improved to 18:1, still a longshot, but far better than the recent 88:1 or nearly 200:1 of a few days ago

in a double match point must win, gnomysTwo first beat bardancer, my teammate on Smack, Slap, and Spank, winning 9-7 in a close one decided on the last few rolls .. souptree and i are now scheduled to face off for team points .. gnomy also beat otto of Ottoman's Empire and rollingfool of two dicks and a chick .. gnomysTwo with 4 matches remaining to be played is still Gno Mo Soup's lynchpin with 2 critical matches for team points remaining, against micaelsw of Gammonizers and cis on Last Minute .. in one other must win match, Gno Mo Soup faces double match point with gnomysTwo against gaspar on No Nuts A**hole and souptree against zyxtcba .. Mort faces vegasvic of Lipstick & Testosterone and souptree faces me in their remaining team point matches

an interesting aside from the simulation below is that Gno Mo Soup wins 551 times in the simulation of 10,191 iterations .. of those 551 wins, 417 or 75% are ties with Club Voodoo .. since Gno Mo Soup won in their season match, the tiebreaker would give Gno Mo Soup the season championship .. this explains why gnomysTwo three wins (none for team points) improved the odds by as much as they did .. the three match points make the prospect of catching and tying Club Voodoo more likely .. for in this case, a tie is as good as a win .. but even a tie means no more than one more loss in any match by the challenger .. therefore any two losses knockout 75% of their win chances - good luck guys

only 35 matches remain to be played .. with 93.2% of the season completed and 478 matches played, the results of a simulation of over 10,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
94.6%
,
1:18
,
100.0%
,
---
3.0
,
2.0
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
91.1%
,
1:10
3.4
,
2.4
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
80.9%
,
1:4
5.6
,
4.6
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
29 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
43.7%
,
1:1
6.0
,
5.0
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.1%
,
2:1
6.4
,
5.4
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
29 / 36
,
4/5
,
5.4%
,
18:1
,
40.1%
,
1:1
7.4
,
6.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
2037:1
8.2
,
7.2
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 33
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
15.2%
,
6:1
8.2
,
7.2
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
31 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
7.6%
,
12:1
8.9
,
7.9
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
8.4
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
5094:1
10.4
,
9.4
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
10190:1
11.3
,
10.3
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
10190:1
12.4
,
11.4
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 27
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.7
,
14.7
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 24
,
5/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.4
,
16.4
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
21 / 24
,
13 / 16
,
7/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]


Yesterday's Matches:

     gaspar (No Nuts A**hole) def. Gusssss (UN Trio)
     wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. erdbeere (Last Orders)
     gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. bardancer (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
     gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. otto (Ottoman's Empire)
     gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. roolingfool (two dicks and a chick)

*  for team points
« Last Edit: November 22, 2007, 08:10:16 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #35 on: November 23, 2007, 10:59:08 AM »
On Thanksgiving Day, all over America,
families sit down to dinner at the same moment - halftime.

~Author Unknown
Little Change on Turkey Day

the leader board remains about the same, as only three matches are played on Thanksgiving Day .. with a win in a team point match, Lipstick & Testosterone moves into sixth, according to the average order of finish in the simulation .. L & T swaps places with Gammonizers, now in 8th after a team point loss .. further down in the pack, three.DOG.night edged ahead of Last Orders, according to the simulation

remember, the simulation assumes all remaining matches are played by all teams .. final rankings are determined by total team and match points earned in actual matches played .. only two teams have finshed all matches .. two teams, schigstogsedat and Gno Mo Soup, have 7 matches remaining .. with the season in its last week, 32 matches remain to be played

93.8% of the season has been completed and 481 matches played .. the results of a simulation of over 14,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
95.0%
,
1:19
,
100.0%
,
---
2.9
,
1.9
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
39 / 42
,
31 / 32
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
92.4%
,
1:12
3.4
,
2.4
,  Cube Sluts,
39 / 42
,
30 / 31
,
1/1
,
-
,
-
,
81.3%
,
1:4
5.6
,
4.6
,  Last Minute,
33 / 42
,
29 / 34
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
44.1%
,
1:1
6.1
,
5.1
,  schigstogsedat,
33 / 42
,
25 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
,
33.1%
,
2:1
6.4
,
5.4
Gno Mo Soup,
29 / 44
,
29 / 36
,
4/5
,
5.0%
,
19:1
,
39.4%
,
3:2
7.3
,
6.3
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
26 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
10.7%
,
8:1
7.5
,
6.5
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.1%
,
874:1
8.4
,
7.4
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
13.7%
,
6:1
9.0
,
8.0
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
14003:1
9.4
,
8.4
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
7001:1
10.5
,
9.5
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
11.3
,
10.3
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.5
,
11.5
,  UN Trio,
35 / 38
,
25 / 27
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 23
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.6
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:

*    wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. Wallenstein (three.DOG.night)
*    don (three.DOG.night) def. Ramses (Last, But Not Least)
      rollingfool (two dicks and a chick) def. michaelsw (Gammonizers)

*  for team points
« Last Edit: November 23, 2007, 11:47:02 AM by sixty_something »
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FIBS Board backgammon forum

Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #35 on: November 23, 2007, 10:59:08 AM »

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #36 on: November 24, 2007, 05:53:44 PM »
Cube Sluts Close With A Win

donzaemon beat cis on Last Minute Saturday morning closing out the season for the defending three time champion Cube Sluts .. the win pushes them into second place ahead of TakeTheMoneyAndRun and trailing Club Voodoo by only four match points - a nice title defense for the previously indomitable Cube Sluts

for a look at the Sluts now historic three-peat see the final standings from the first three seasons at the TL website:



482 matches have now been played .. 31 remain unplayed .. i'll post results from another simulation tomorrow or when more matches are played

Saturday Morning Matches:

*   donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. cis (Last Minute)

Yesterday's Matches:

    no matches played

*  for team points
« Last Edit: November 24, 2007, 06:24:41 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #37 on: November 25, 2007, 01:55:39 PM »
"Nobody wears beige to a bank robbery"
Virgil Starkwell in Take The Money And Run (1969)
written, directed, and starring Woody Allen (1935- )
TakeTheMoneyAndRun Takes Second

BushSucks defeated sedat of schigstogsedat putting TakeTheMoneyAndRun securely into second place .. only Gno Mo Soup, the last contender for the championship, can now change the order of the top three positions .. the race to make the hypothetical playoffs is now down to who will finish in 4th place in case Gno Mo Soup does not break into the top three .. three of the top four are now locked in

*** Late Breaking News ***

in an early Sunday morning match, gnomysTwo defeated cis of Last Minute for team points keeping Gno Mo Soup's chances alive and well .. gnomysTwo with 3 matches remaining to be played is still Gno Mo Soup's lynchpin with one more critical match for team points remaining against micaelsw of Gammonizers .. in one other must win match, Gno Mo Soup faces double match point with gnomysTwo against gaspar on No Nuts A**hole and souptree against zyxtcba .. Mort faces vegasvic of Lipstick & Testosterone and souptree faces me in their remaining team point matches

with 94.7% of the season completed 486 matches have been played,only 27 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 7,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
94.8%
,
1:18
,
100.0%
,
---
2.1
,
1.1
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.1
,
2.1
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
5.1
,
4.1
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
30 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
39.1%
,
2:1
6.5
,
5.5
Gno Mo Soup,
32 / 44
,
30 / 36
,
3/4
,
5.2%
,
18:1
,
39.5%
,
2:1
6.7
,
5.7
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
11.8%
,
7:1
7.4
,
6.4
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
2333:1
7.6
,
6.6
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
25 / 31
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
7.1%
,
13:1
8.3
,
7.3
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
9.9%
,
9:1
9.1
,
8.1
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.3
,
8.3
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
0.0%
,
7002:1
10.3
,
9.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
11.1
,
10.1
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.5
,
12.5
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.6
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 22
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Sunday Morning Matches:

*   gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. cis (Last Minute)

Yesterday's Matches:

*   donzaemon (Cube Sluts) def. cis (Last Minute)
    DeaDice (Lipstick & Testsosterone) def. don (three.DOG.night)
*   BushSucks *TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. sedat (schigstogsedat)
*   cis (Last Minute) def. Gusssss (UN Trio)

*  for team points
« Last Edit: November 25, 2007, 05:53:45 PM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #38 on: November 27, 2007, 11:32:01 PM »
"A long shot, Watson; a very long shot," said he, pinching my arm.
from the story 'Silver Blaze' in the Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes
by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (1859-1930)
Scottish author and Spiritualist
The Last Long Shot Becomes Longer

yesterday, gnomysTwo was beaten by Schigolch on schigstogsedat .. team points had already been decided, but the loss now forces Gno Mo Soup to win all its remaining matches to overtake Club Voodoo in first .. in one team point match, against No Nuts A**hole, it's double match point as one match has already been lost .. this forces Go Mo Soup to win 2 matches for the one match point .. therefore, Go Mo Soup must win all five of their remaining matches for the four match points needed to pass Club Voodoo .. while winning only three is necessary to reach 42 team points for a tie, any loss eliminates the possibility of a tie in match points and winning the tiebreaker .. as a result, the odds to win for Go Mo Soup slipped (with the loss) from 18:1 to 49:1

the simulation also revealed a major shift in odds to make the hypothetical playoff .. for reasons i cannot immediately understand, the loss by Gno Mo Soup to schigstogsedat caused Gno Mo Soup to advance to fourth place where they had previously been in a statistical dead heat with Last Minute with 2:1 odds to make the playoffs for both .. now, according to a simulation run after the loss, Gno Mo Soup is the 1:1 favorite to take fourth .. Last Minute fell from 2:1 odds to make the playoff to 40:1 .. for now, Last Minute sits securely in fourth place in the actual standings until someone passes them and the simulation says someone should

on first glance, this made no sense to me,  but the model has been stable long enough to trust .. without further examination, i counted it as just another example of the subtle and sometimes complex way in which the order of finish based on team points and match points works out, which is the whole reason i began this little simulation exercise .. again, it is important to remember the simulation assumes all matches by all players are completed .. the actual order of finish will be dependent on actual matches played

And Then Shorter

after the post above, souptree beat me in a must win match for team points .. the nature of my TL season was reflected in the exciting match .. it was a dramatic finish that could have meant the end of the season for Gno Mo Soup and saved a little pride for me .. souptree took a cube with the match at 3-2, my favor .. according to GNU, it was a very bad take, but then soup correctly redoubled and immediately rolled 55's .. even after the roll i was 63% to win, according to GNU .. i wasn't too nervous yet .. nor did i have time for nerves to set in ..  a couple of rolls later a quick and painless back to back pair of 66's was the coup de grace and end of my season .. a gutsy take there soupy and well won - congrats .. with the win, Gno Mo Soup goes back to 21:1 odds to win and 1:4 to make the hypothetical playoffs

it also now becomes clear why the odds to make a playoff increased for Last Minute .. after souptree's win their odds are now 171:1 .. with three more matches all for team points, any one win would put Gno Mo Soup in fourth .. even three losses would put them ahead of Last Minute's current total in match points .. Last Minute would have to win both matches to take back fourth place

with 95.1% of the season completed 488 matches have been played,only 25 matches remain unplayed .. the results of a simulation of over 12,000 iterations or seasons are below .. playoff calculations below are included for curiosity value only .. no playoffs will be held this season .. playoffs remain under consideration for next season .. the playoff structure assumed is for the top four teams

[table=]
Order,  Back,    Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,  Odds  , % to Playoffs , Odds to Playoffs
1.0
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
95.4%
,
1:21
,
100.0%
,
---
2.3
,
1.3
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.3
,
2.3
,  Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
-
,
-
,
100.0%
,
---
3.7
,
2.7
Gno Mo Soup,
35 / 44
,
31 / 35
,
3/3
,
4.6%
,
21:1
,
78.9%
,
1:4
6.0
,
5.0
,  Last Minute,
38 / --
,
30 / 32
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
0.6%
,
171:1
6.8
,
5.8
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
10.0%
,
9:1
7.2
,
6.2
,  schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 31
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
,
7.3%
,
13:1
7.6
,
6.6
,  Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
8.3
,
7.3
,  Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
-
,
-
,
8.0%
,
12:1
9.2
,
8.2
,  white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
8.4
,  No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
10.3
,
9.3
,  Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
12.9
,
11.9
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
13.4
,
12.4
,  UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.5
,
14.5
,  Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.6
,  three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 22
,
4/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.0
,
16.0
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
17.6
,
16.6
,  MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
18.0
,  Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
-
,
-
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Monday's Match:

      Schigolch (schigstogsedat) def. gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup)

Tuesday Evening:

*   souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank)

* for team points
« Last Edit: November 28, 2007, 03:21:48 AM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #39 on: November 28, 2007, 07:36:55 PM »
In the end, everything is a gag.
Charlie Chaplin (1889–1977)
English comedy actor and notable director and musician
in the early to mid Hollywood cinema era
Two Days To Go

no TL matches have been played since my last post yesterday .. only two days remain in the season .. get those matches played or forever hold your tongue about how it might have been

Actual Rankings and Predictions from Model

so, i thought i'd take the opportunity to look at the way the model varies from the current rankings at the TL website (http://www.souptree.net/fibs_league/?page=standings&graphics=small)

as the season approaches its end, the top three positions of the actual rankings are the same as those predicted by the model .. but there are some big differences beginning at fourth place .. maybe you've begun to wonder why, i know i have .. the purpose of this post is to look at some of those differences and justify why the model orders the teams as it does

as i've said several times, the actual rankings are dependent on actual matches played, while the model assumes all teams play all matches .. as we get down to the end of the season, even with only 25 matches remaining to be played, only four teams have played all their matches .. ten of those twenty-five matches remaining are for team points .. thus, thirty-three (33) team points are yet to be awarded as well as 25 match points .. the model distributes all those points .. it's unlikely all matches will be completed, as it's never happened before in four seasons .. therein is the primary difference in the actual rankings and the order of the predictions from the model

let's look at a few examples where the difference is most pronounced .. first, here are the current actual standings

[table=]
Team Name,    TP/Max    ,    MP/Max    ,    MB/mr   
Club Voodoo,
42 / --
,
35 / --
,
---
,
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
42 / --
,
32 / --
,
---
,
Cube Sluts,
42 / --
,
31 / --
,
---
,
Last Minute,
38 / --
,
30 / 32
,
2/0
,
Virtual Addicts,
38 / --
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
white punks on dope,
38 / --
,
28 / --
,
2/0
,
UN Trio,
36 / --
,
25 / 26
,
2/0
,
Gno Mo Soup,
35 / 44
,
31 / 35
,
3/3
,
Ottoman's Empire,
35 / 38
,
26 / 29
,
3/1
,
No Nuts A**hole,
35 / 38
,
26 / 30
,
3/1
,
Lipstick & Testosterone,
34 / 40
,
27 / 30
,
3/2
,
schigstogsedat,
34 / 40
,
26 / 31
,
3/2
,
three.DOG.night,
32 / --
,
19 / 22
,
4/0
,
Gammonizers,
31 / 40
,
27 / 32
,
4/3
,
Smack Slap and Spank,
30 / 36
,
26 / 28
,
4/2
,
Last Orders,
27 / 36
,
20 / 25
,
5/3
,
MOJO,
27 / 30
,
18 / 23
,
5/1
,
two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
20 / 24
,
6/2
,
Last But Not Least,
22 / --
,
13 / 15
,
7/0
,
[/table]

the first thing i noticed is how the "--" entries float toward the top .. "--" means either Team or Match points have maxed out .. i didn't expect this, but it makes sense .. it's always been obvious the earliest teams to complete matches rise to the top of the actual ranking list .. it is in fact the very bias the simulation is intended to correct

what i was looking for, but didn't expect to see here so clearly, is why Last Minute, Virtual Addicts, white punks on dope, and UN Trio (all highly ranked in the current actual rankings) are rated so much lower in the simulation model average order of finish

for example, look at UN Trio maxed out at 36 team points ..  by just finishing all remaining team point matches, even losing all matches and earning only one point, Gno Mo Soup, Ottoman's Empire, No Nuts A**hole, Lipstick & Testosterone, and schigstogsedat will finish ahead of UN Trio .. Gammonizers needs only win one of three remaining team point matches to be added to that list .. remember, in the simulation model all teams finish all matches

similar logic can be applied to the situation with Last Minute, Virtual Addicts and white punks on dope maxed out at 38 team points .. in this case each of the lower rated teams in actual ratings must win at least one match to jump ahead or reach, but most have two or more matches left to play

remember, the Order column in the model represents the weighted average order of finish for each team in all iterations of the simulation run .. that is, each time a team finishes first it receives 19 points, 18 for second, 17 for third, 2 points for 18th and 1 point for 19th place

to compare the list above to the order from a simulation run, simply page down to yesterday's post .. since no matches have been played, the point values are all the same .. in most cases, it's easy to see how a single team point win by a lower ranked team can quickly push it to the top of the list past some of the teams that have maxed out in team points ..  the most subtle example is for my team, Smack, Slap, and Spank .. my teammates, elmicho and bardancer, each had pre-season FIBS ratings over 1900 .. they are paired with manxcat and wyzzz in their two remaining matches with pre-season ratings of 1588 and 1536, respectively .. thus, elmicho and bardancer are big favorites to win both matches .. if they do, and they do in the majority of cases according to the model, our 36 team points and 28 match points exceeds UN Trio's total

the formula used to calculate the probability the underdog wins is the same Elo formula used in calculating FIBS ratings .. the ratings used in the model from day one have been the initial pre-season FIBS ratings .. while there has been some variation in individual ratings as the season has progressed, it has been easier to simply go with the pre-season ratings .. at the end of the season, i'll do a pre-season post-season comparison out of curiosity to see how the two compare .. my guess is they will be about the same
« Last Edit: November 29, 2007, 12:22:43 AM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
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