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TL4 Team League Predictions

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Offline sixty_something

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TL4 Team League Predictions
« on: October 23, 2007, 12:05:19 PM »
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, has just broken from the pack of five leaders with 3:1 odds for winning. This marks the first time since the season began a single team has taken such a lead, according to my simulation model. We've just passed the halfway pole in the Team League season with 267 games played, 246 unplayed.  Anything can and will still happen, but the reign of the Cube Sluts appears in serious jeopardy.

The odds are based on output from a stochastic simulation model I've been working on since the beginning of the season. The model uses current match results, pre-season FIBS ratings of each player by position, and the FIBS rating formula to predict the outcome of all unplayed matches. The current simulation run represents over 50,000 iterations or seasons with results from 267 games played (268 actually played as of this post).
   
Here are the current predictions. You will note they differ substantially from the team order in the standings displayed at the Team League website, but these are projections based on order of finish over the simulation run. Mathematically they're perhaps a better way to interpret how the teams actually compare with one another in the race to the finish.

I'll continue to post results from the model here from time to time as the season progresses. Good luck and good games to all.

sixty

~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~ ~v~

Pre-season   Odds to % to Make Odds to
Team Rank   Team name   Win %     Win  PlayoffsMake Playoffs
    5   TakeTheMoneyAndRun    36.4%       3:1   19.4%   5:1
    2   Club Voodoo    14.0%       7:1   14.5%   7:1
   10   Last Minute   13.9%       7:1   12.2%   8:1
    1   Smack, Slap, and Spank   11.2%          9:1   10.9%   9:1
    3   Cube Sluts   8.9%      11:1   10.1%   10:1
    9   No Nuts A**hole   4.1%      24:1   8.2%   12:1
    4   Ottoman's Empire   3.7%      27:1   7.3%   14:1
    7   Virtual Addicts   2.6%      38:1   5.1%   20:1
   12   TBD   2.1%      47:1   3.8%   26:1
    8   Gammonizers   1.8%      56:1   5.1%   20:1
   11   schigstogsedat   0.8%     127:1   1.9%   53:1
    6   Lipstick & Testosterone   0.4%     244:1   1.0%   103:1
   16   Last Orders   0.1%    1,934:1   0.3%   344:1
   17   white punks on dope   0.0%   54,152:1   0.1%   671:1
   14   UN Trio   0.0%   54,152:1   0.0%   4,886:1
   19   two dicks and a chick   0.0%   54,152:1   0.0%   9,550:1
   15   MOJO   0.0%   54,152:1   0.0%   23,345:1
   13   three.DOG.night   0.0%      xxx   0.0%   3,001:1
   18   Last, But Not Least   0.0%      xxx   0.0%   210,103:1


(Note that Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
« Last Edit: January 17, 2008, 11:27:28 PM by sixty_something »
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TL4 Team League Predictions
« on: October 23, 2007, 12:05:19 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2007, 12:15:24 AM »
Within the first day with a lead, TakeTheMoneyAndRun has extended it. Among the other leaders, only LastMinute is keeping pace.

These odds are based on a 12,000 season simulation run from Team League standings early Wednesday morning, 10/24/07, with 278 matches played in the season.

[table=]
Pre-season Rank,         Team Name,      % to        Win,      Odds to        Win,      % to make Playoffs,   Odds to Make Playoffs
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   41.1%,   2:1,   20.2%,   5:1
10,   Last Minute,   16.4%,   6:1,   13.6%,   7:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   12.7%,   8:1,   14.4%,   7:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   8.3%,   12:1,   10.5%,   10:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   8.0%,   13:1,   9.6%,   10:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   4.3%,   23:1,   8.6%,   12:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   2.9%,   35:1,   7.0%,   14:1
12,   TBD,   2.1%,   47:1,   3.9%,   26:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   1.4%,   69:1,   3.1%,   32:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   1.3%,   77:1,   3.9%,   25:1
8,   Gammonizers,   1.1%,   94:1,   4.0%,   25:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   257:1,   1.0%,   99:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.0%,   4276:1,   0.2%,   648:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.1%,   1995:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   5541:1
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   7124:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   12466:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   49865:1
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2007, 12:15:24 AM »

Offline boomslang

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2007, 12:59:46 AM »

I think there's something 'odd' about your predictions...
 
1) I don't see why "white punks on dope" have a lower chance (0%) of being successful (whether winning the league or reaching the playoffs) than for example "Lipstick & Testosterone".  My guess is that WPOD have quite a good chance to end up in top 4.

2) If "TakeTheMoneyAndRun" have 41.1% chance to win (i.e. reaching top 1), the chances of reaching the playoffs (i.e. ending up in top 4) would be at least 41.1% for them, so your 20.2% can't be correct.

Further more, a 20.2% chance would be a 1:4 odds and not 5:1 odds.


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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2007, 02:54:10 PM »
boomslang, you are correct there was something "odd" in my odds calculation .. a 25% chance of winning represents 1 out of 4 ways to win, but this is not 4:1 odds .. it is 3:1 odds .. i knew there was a good reason for not booking bets

this is very much a work in progress and a not very simple set of calculations .. so, it would not surprise me to find other errors as the season progresses, large and small .. thanks for pointing that most obvious one out

as, for your other observations and questions, the chances of making the playoffs % and odds are always going to be less than a teams chances of winning .. this is counter-intuitive, but remember the pool of candidates that "win" or make the playoffs increases from just one winner to 4 .. i think the model is correct on this one, but i'll check it as well

the white punks on dope issue points out something that needs more examination and may be a problem with the accumulation and tallying of team points based on matches played .. i suspect it is a result of changes made when we added a team recently and even more recently changed the name of a team .. both these changes caused serious indexing problems

due to the nature of the design of the model in Excel, this created quite a mess which requires a complex set of manual corrections .. apparently, it's not yet correct .. so, thanks for pointing out this potentially more serious error .. as i said, this is very much a work in progress and not a very simple one at that

before posting the next results, current through 315 matches, i'll do some serious debugging and probably not the last .. thanks for the observations and corrections

if anyone else sees something illogical, please let me know either here or in shouts

sixty

« Last Edit: October 27, 2007, 07:45:31 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2007, 02:54:10 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2007, 11:38:48 PM »
TakeTheMoneyAndRun is now an even money favorite to win the Team League season according to the latest run of the simulation model .. Last Minute and No Nuts A**hole appear to have fallen well off the pace with Virtual Addicts closing fast, but still well back

thanks to boomslang, a problem with correctly reporting odds for white punks on dope has also been fixed .. as boomslang suggested, wpod is in 5th place in a race to make the playoffs .. btw, team TBD was renamed to Gno Mo Soup

so, after 315 matches completed this morning at 7:30am here are the current odds and predictions for a simulation run of 20,000 iterations or seasons (currently 321 matches have been completed)

[table=]
Pre-season Team Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs,   Odds to Make Playoffs
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   49.4%,   1:1,   21.0%,   4:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   13.9%,   6:1,   14.8%,   6:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   13.4%,   6:1,   12.5%,   7:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   7.0%,   13:1,   9.9%,   9:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   4.0%,   24:1,   7.3%,   13:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   2.8%,   35:1,   5.9%,   16:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   2.5%,   39:1,   4.8%,   20:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   1.8%,   53:1,   3.2%,   30:1
10,   Last Minute,   1.6%,   63:1,   3.2%,   30:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.2%,   84:1,   4.1%,   23:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.9%,   115:1,   9.2%,   10:1
8,   Gammonizers,   0.8%,   125:1,   2.2%,   45:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.8%,   126:1,   1.5%,   65:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1050:1,   0.3%,   290:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0,   0.2%,   573:1
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   4626:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   83280:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
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Offline webrunner

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2007, 10:50:07 AM »
Nice tables Sixt, i like the sorting feature ;)
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2007, 09:15:41 AM »
when i began working on this model the preliminary races of the Breeder's Cup, horse racing's premier event each fall, were being run on TV .. i began thinking of the order of the teams as a pack of horses breaking from the gate .. while the odds to win and/or make the playoffs (if any) are not classic parimutuel odds, they are becoming a dynamic way of handicapping the Team League season and seeing the standings in a different way, hopefully an entertaining one .. to extend that metaphor, the race, now two-thirds finished, is entering the clubhouse turn with teams jockeying for position in what may be another exciting finish

TakeTheMoneyAndRun remains alone in front and the even money favorite to win this season .. Smack, Slap, and Spank and Club Voodoo remain neck and neck in second and third, but have fallen back a little with 8:1 and 9:1 odds to win, respectively .. Cube Sluts, still holding in fourth place and within striking distance of a fourth consecutive championship, have gained a little ground, improving to 11:1 odds to win .. Virtual Addicts have moved up strongly over the weekend into contention now in fifth with 12:1 odds to win

also moving up and next back in sixth is schigstogsedat, improving to 32:1 odds, just ahead of Gno Mo Soup at 34:1 .. in eighth and ninth, gaining a little ground but still well back, are Last Minute and No Nuts A**hole, 56:1 and 80:1, respectively .. others remain mired in the pack or losing ground with the exception of UN Trio making a nice move from deep in the pack 

there are several important rubber matches to decide the winner of team points now shaping up .. these will no doubt have an important influence on final team standings .. even teams out of the running may pull off upsets which can decide the season .. so, as we all begin playing matches, let us know in shouts so we can watch and share in the excitement

boomslang's comments really helped find a subtle error in earlier versions of the model .. it would be most helpful if anyone sees any other oddities in the way your team is moving in the pack since the last post .. also,  questions or comments on the way these predictions are expressed are most welcome

with 340 matches played (current as of this post) we are two-thirds of the way finished with the season .. the simulation for 12,000 iterations or seasons provides the following results

[table=]
Pre-Season Team Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   50.3%,   1:1,   21.1%,   4:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   11.1%,   8:1,   11.6%,   8:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   9.6%,   9:1,   13.6%,   6:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   8.2%,   11:1,   9.6%,   9:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   7.4%,   12:1,   10.1%,   9:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   3.1%,   32:1,   4.2%,   23:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   2.8%,   34:1,   5.0%,   19:1
10,   Last Minute,   2.4%,   41:1,   4.6%,   21:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.8%,   56:1,   4.8%,   20:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   1.2%,   80:1,   3.6%,   27:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.7%,   135:1,   7.9%,   12:1
8,   Gammonizers,   0.7%,   142:1,   2.1%,   47:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.6%,   178:1,   1.3%,   77:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1332:1,   0.3%,   391:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   6000:1,   0.3%,   372:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   11746:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
« Last Edit: October 29, 2007, 11:14:50 AM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2007, 12:37:34 PM »
on seeing the ubiquitous yellow bar rise toward the top of the standings yesterday, i became curious what that meant in the perspective of these predictions .. the result was equally dramatic .. the Cube Sluts have indeed made a strong move .. two wins at match point yesterday by Backwoods, one against scuba on Club Voodoo, have propelled the Cube Sluts into a strong second place at 5:1 odds to win .. Club Voodoo dropped from third yesterday at 9:1 to sixth place at 26:1 passed by Last Minute, now in fifth, at 23:1 .. Virtual Addicts moved into third by a tiny margin over Smack, Slap, and Spank, both at 12:1

bardancer, my Smack, Slap, and Spank teammate, won yesterday against michaelsw on Gammonizers in our team's only posted match .. it was not for match point .. ironically, even with his win our odds to win are down from 8:1 to 12:1 .. why?

already in a slump with miserable dice and worse luck, the first answer i came up with is that of our ten remaining undecided matches i'm sitting on matches for team point in four of them .. actually, the answer is more likely the relative importance of the two match point wins by Backwoods .. a finished match point win is obviously worth far more than a win in a match yet to be decided for team points - two team point wins worth even more .. the model is just reflecting that

diane, the Cube Sluts leading lady, and i have a very important match point coming up soon which we both need to win .. with TakeTheMoneyAndRun still sitting securely in the lead at 1:1, it's beginning to look as if contenders knocking off one another may serve to strengthen their chances of winning .. unless one team begins to break cleanly from the pack with a few key match point wins or they stumble, TakeTheMoneyAndRun may be hard to catch

with 349 matches played (current as of this post), the results of this mornings 11,000 iteration simulation run provide these new predictions

[table=]
Pre-Season Team Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   48.3%,   1:1,   20.9%,   4:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   16.3%,   5:1,   14.5%,   6:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   8.0%,   12:1,   10.4%,   9:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   7.6%,   12:1,   9.0%,   10:1
10,   Last Minute,   4.1%,   23:1,   6.3%,   15:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   3.7%,   26:1,   10.9%,   8:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   3.2%,   30:1,   4.1%,   24:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   2.8%,   34:1,   5.9%,   16:1
8,   Gammonizers,   2.8%,   34:1,   4.6%,   21:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.5%,   66:1,   3.7%,   26:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   0.8%,   130:1,   2.1%,   48:1
17,   white punks on dope,   0.5%,   219:1,   6.8%,   14:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.3%,   392:1,   0.6%,   171:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1374:1,   0.3%,   381:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   11000:1,   0.1%,   689:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
« Last Edit: October 30, 2007, 06:32:29 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2007, 12:37:34 PM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2007, 09:55:10 AM »
it's Haloween and the teams are shuffling like kids in line for candy as players complete deciding rubber matches for team points .. BushSucks on the leading team TakeTheMoneyAndRun was defeated by Slipshod on No Nuts A**hole .. for the first time since taking the even money lead last week, odds to win for TakeTheMoneyAndRun drop to 3:2 or about 41% chance to win (down from about 50%) .. with the win, No Nuts A**hole improves to 32:1 as they move up to eighth place

after the strong move yesterday by Cube Sluts, Wallenstein on three.DOG.night defeated diane and Cube Sluts dropped back to third place with odds of 9:1 to win .. three.DOG.night remains well back

schigstogsedat was involved in three rubber matches for team points - losing two and winning one .. Gussssss on UN Trio defeated Schigolch .. Schigolch then defeated bardancer on Smack, Slap, Spank .. souptree on Gno Mo Soup defeated stog for schigstogsedat's second team point loss .. schigstogsedat drops back to tenth at 37:1 odds .. Gno Mo Soup remains in eleventh place at 57:1 .. Smack, Slap, Spank falls back to sixth at 20:1 while UN Trio remains well back

as odds to win begin changing for many teams and as teams begin to cluster and change positions within the first ten places, this could be an early indicator that anybody can still win or perhaps contending teams are beginning to knock one another off .. regardless, TakeTheMoneyAndRun still is in a strong position with six team point matches yet to be decided against Gammonizers, schigstogsedat, Gno Mo Soup, Lipstick & Testosterone, Last Orders, and MOJO .. it will likely take at least three upsets for another team to catch them

with 70% of the season's matches now completed at 358 matches played (current with this post), the results of a 8,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions
   
[table=]
Pre-Season Rank,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   40.6%,   3:2,   19.4%,   4:1
7,   Virtual Addicts,   12.4%,   7:1,   11.1%,   8:1
3,   Cube Sluts,   10.2%,   9:1,   10.9%,   8:1
2,   Club Voodoo,   7.5%,   12:1,   12.2%,   7:1
10,   Last Minute,   6.2%,   15:1,   7.0%,   13:1
1,   Smack Slap and Spank,   4.8%,   20:1,   6.1%,   15:1
8,   Gammonizers,   4.7%,   20:1,   5.3%,   18:1
4,   Ottoman's Empire,   3.8%,   25:1,   5.7%,   16:1
9,   No Nuts A**hole,   3.1%,   32:1,   6.5%,   14:1
11,   schigstogsedat,   2.6%,   37:1,   3.3%,   29:1
12,   Gno Mo Soup,   1.7%,   57:1,   2.8%,   34:1
17,   white punks on dope,   1.5%,   67:1,   8.1%,   11:1
6,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.6%,   156:1,   0.8%,   124:1
14,   UN Trio,   0.1%,   1142:1,   0.5%,   196:1
16,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   1333:1,   0.2%,   507:1
15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   10334:1
13,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2007, 12:07:04 PM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2007, 06:36:06 AM »
the race is tightening .. Virtual Addicts and Club Voodoo move up while TakeTheMoneyAndRun remains idle .. Cube Sluts hold at 9:1 and Slap, Smack, and Spank fades while Gammonizers, No Nuts A**hole, and Last Minute move to within striking distance

Virtual Addicts has 7 team point matches yet to be decided; TakeTheMoneyAndRun and Cube Sluts  6 each; Club Voodoo has only 3 team points undecided against Lipstick & Testosterone, Last, But Not Least, and two dicks and a chick

if Club Voodoo can close the season winning the team points in their 3 remaining team point matches, their 42 team point total will be the one to beat ... other top contenders would be forced to win all or lose no more than one remaining team point match to equal that 42

from scans of a few hundred seasons winning totals, a team point total of 44-46 occurs in about 60% of the seasons and seldom occurs for more than one team .. no occurance of 48 or more team points has been observed .. seasons with a maximum of 42 and fewer team points almost always result in match points being the tie-breaker .. so, every match will be important

Yesterday's Match Results:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. Gusssss (UN Trio)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
* Slipshod (No Nuts A**hole) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* elmicho (Slap, Smack, and Spank) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* zyxtcba (No Nuts A**hole) def. sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank)
* diane (Cube Sluts) def. sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank)
   erdbeere (Last Orders) def. sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank)
   sixty_something (Slap, Smack, and Spank) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
   cassandra (Last, But Not Least) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
   chopos (UN Trio) def. sedat (schigstogsedat)
   blotsalot (Last Orders) def. Gussssss (UN Trio)
   Wallenstein (three.DOG.night) def. Tomawaky (Virtual Addicts)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)

with 372 matches played 72.5% of season is completed .. the results of a 10,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions


[table=]
Pre-Season Rank,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win,   % to Make Playoffs*,   Odds to Make Playoffs*
5,   28,   25,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   39.2%,   3:2,   19.1%,   4:1
2,   33,   29,   Club Voodoo,   13.6%,   6:1,   16.9%,   5:1
7,   25,   22,   Virtual Addicts,   11.4%,   8:1,   10.8%,   8:1
3,   28,   26,   Cube Sluts,   10.0%,   9:1,   10.3%,   9:1
8,   19,   23,   Gammonizers,   6.6%,   14:1,   6.8%,   14:1
9,   32,   24,   No Nuts A**hole,   6.0%,   16:1,   11.0%,   8:1
10,   16,   22,   Last Minute,   5.6%,   17:1,   6.4%,   15:1
12,   16,   18,   Gno Mo Soup,   2.1%,   46:1,   2.9%,   34:1
11,   19,   17,   schigstogsedat,   1.9%,   52:1,   2.8%,   34:1
1,   24,   22,   Smack Slap and Spank,   1.8%,   55:1,   3.4%,   28:1
17,   36,   25,   white punks on dope,   0.9%,   115:1,   7.1%,   13:1
6,   11,   11,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   226:1,   0.7%,   134:1
4,   21,   20,   Ottoman's Empire,   0.3%,   285:1,   1.3%,   76:1
16,   12,   14,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   769:1,   0.3%,   338:1,
14,   25,   21,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   2146:1
15,   11,   14,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   38649:1
13,   22,   15,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
19,   19,   18,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
18,   11,   6,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

(* Note: Playoffs have only been discussed, whether they will be held is still undetermined.  The model assumes a finish in 1st through 4th makes the playoffs.)
« Last Edit: November 01, 2007, 10:43:07 AM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2007, 03:27:36 PM »
Approaching the 3/4-pole, with 74.3% of the season completed and according to the simulation model, it appears the race is coming down to the top six teams: TakeTheMoneyAndRun at 2:1, Club Voodoo 5:1, Virtual Addicts 6:1, Cube Sluts 7:1, Last Minute 12:1, and Gammonizers at 13:1 .. but other factors are now coming into play

TakeTheMoneyAndRun, playing only 1 match over the past few days, remains at the top of the pack, but their lead continues to shrink .. the simulation still shows TakeTheMoneyAndRun winning in slightly over one-third of the simulated seasons, but that leaves two-thirds of the seasons with another team winning .. so, the race is clearly tightening and becoming hard to call

the big unknown factor beginning to enter into the equation is one the simulation model cannot calculate ... as the end of season is approaching, reality tells us that not all matches will be completed .. the model assumes all matches are played and completed .. this could be a big difference .. past history of team league shows this has never happened

for example, last season only 7 of the 42 players completed 100% of their matches .. most incomplete matches had nothing to do with determining the season winner, but in a close race all are important .. so, as these predictions continue, actual Team Point and Match Point totals calculated from matches finished become very important - much more important than the simulated results .. remember, the models predictions are for maximum possible Team Points, assuming all matches are played .. actual totals of completed matches will, in the end, determine the winner .. since the season is scheduled to end on November 15th, less than two weeks remain to finish matches

here is the order by Team and Match point totals with the models odds included for the most recent run (also listed below) .. note the significant difference .. despite being a 72:1 longshot, if the season were to end today, White punks on dope is in the barn with 36 Team points and would be the winner .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun, currently in fifth place, needs three more Team point match wins to pass them

i've dropped odds to make the playoffs and pre-season team rank in the tables below .. i've added an interesting new column, Team Points Undecided .. it is the number of team matches where team points have not yet been decided multiplied times three .. thus, adding the first two columns yields the maximum number of team points a team can score for the season .. 46 is the maximum number of team points in a winning season predicted by the model with 42 the minimum winning total in the 10,000+ seasons simulated .. again, the model assumes completion of all matches .. remember, ties in team points are decided by total match points .. theoretically, Lipstick & Testosterone could achieve 50 Team Points by winning all 13 of their remaining undecided team point matches, but in the 10,000+ season simulation, it never happened

[table=]
Team Points Undecided,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
6,   36,   26,   white punks on dope,   1.4%,   72:1
9,   33,   29,   Club Voodoo,   15.7%,   5:1
9,   33,   24,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.5%,   66:1
15,   31,   27,   Cube Sluts,   12.9%,   7:1
18,   28,   25,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   34.1%,    2:1
18,   28,   23,   Virtual Addicts,   14.4%,   6:1
12,   28,   23,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0
18,   24,   22,   Smack Slap and Spank,   1.6%,   63:1
12,   22,   15,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0
21,   21,   20,   Ottoman's Empire,   0.5%,   212:1
24,   20,   17,   schigstogsedat,   1.0%,   100:1
27,   19,   23,   Last Minute,   7.6%,   12:1
27,   19,   23,   Gammonizers,   7.3%,   13:1
21,   19,   18,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0
30,   16,   18,   Gno Mo Soup,   1.5%,   66:1
12,   16,   7,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0
27,   15,   15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0
33,   13,   15,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   714:1
39,   11,   11,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   232:1
[/table]


Thursday and Friday's Match Results:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

* mradica (C) (Virtual Addicts) def. gaspar (No Nuts A**hole)
   blotsalot (Last Orders) def. Pernot_Richard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
* Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. onion (MOJO)
   Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. souptree (Gno Mo Soup)
   inim (white punks on dope) def. Gussssss (UN Trio)
* Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def. Schigolch (schigstogsedat)
* manxcat (MOJO) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
* Backwoods (Cube Sluts) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* Zorba (Last Minute) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)

# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)

with 381 matches played 74.3% of the season is completed .. the results of a 10,000 iteration simulation yield the following predictions at 11/2/2007 9:06am

[table=]
Team Points Undecided,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Team Name,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
18,   28,   25,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   34.1%,   2:1
9,   33,   29,   Club Voodoo,   15.7%,   5:1
18,   28,   23,   Virtual Addicts,   14.4%,   6:1
15,   31,   27,   Cube Sluts,   12.9%,   7:1
27,   19,   23,   Last Minute,   7.6%,   12:1
27,   19,   23,   Gammonizers,   7.3%,   13:1,
18,   24,   22,   Smack Slap and Spank,   1.6%,   63:1
9,   33,   24,   No Nuts A**hole,   1.5%,   66:1
30,   16,   18,   Gno Mo Soup,   1.5%,   66:1
6,   36,   26,   white punks on dope,   1.4%,   72:1
24,   20,   17,   schigstogsedat,   1.0%,   100:1
21,   21,   20,   Ottoman's Empire,   0.5%,   212:1
39,   11,   11,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   0.4%,   232:1
33,   13,   15,   Last Orders,   0.1%,   714:1
12,   28,   23,   UN Trio,   0.0%,   0
21,   19,   18,   two dicks and a chick,   0.0%,   0
27,   15,   15,   MOJO,   0.0%,   0
12,   22,   15,   three.DOG.night,   0.0%,   0
12,   16,   7,   Last But Not Least,   0.0%,   0
[/table]
« Last Edit: November 03, 2007, 07:27:29 PM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2007, 12:49:18 AM »
as we edge past the 3/4-post, the race is on .. Club Voodoo has taken away the odds lead held all week by TakeTheMoneyAndRun ..  Club Voodoo and TakeTheMoneyAndRun, at 3:1 odds to win, and Cube Sluts at 4:1 are neck and neck rounding the turn .. while Club VooDoo is percentage points ahead in the odds calculation, its maximum team point total is 42 .. both Cube Sluts with 5 team point matches undecided and TakeTheMoneyAndRun with 6 undecided have opportunities to pull ahead with 44 or 46 team point total

vegasvic on Lipstick & Testosterone is in position to indirectly help or hurt the Cube Sluts in their remarkable quest for a four-peat .. vegasvic has two matches which can decide team points against the two top teams - BushSucks on TakeTheMoneyAndRun and scuba on Club VooDoo .. the outcome of these matches could significantly effect the final standings and the Cube Sluts fate .. should vegasvic pull off a win in both matches the indomitable Cube Sluts will break into the odds lead without playing a match

but even if vicsweeps the Cube Sluts into first place, donzeamon must get past a rubber match with DeaDice .. DeaDice also has a possible team match point match with factotum of Club VooDoo .. so, it looks as if Lipstick & Testosterone may either play the role of spoiler, decider, or propel itself into the thick of the race

with 76.0% of season completed and 390 matches played on 11/3/2007 at 7:11pm CDT

[table=]
Played,   Won,   Undecided TP Matches,   Name,   Team Points,   Match Points,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
50/54 (93%),   31/50 (62%),   2,   Club Voodoo,   36,   31,   25.5%,   3:1
43/54 (80%),   26/43 (60%),   6,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   28,   26,   22.7%,   3:1
48/54 (89%),   27/48 (56%),   5,   Cube Sluts,   31,   27,   22.2%,   4:1
40/54 (74%),   23/40 (58%),   6,   Virtual Addicts,   28,   23,   15.3%,   6:1
40/54 (74%),   23/40 (58%),   9,   Gammonizers,   19,   23,   6.5%,   14:1
39/54 (72%),   19/39 (49%),   7,   schigstogsedat,   26,   19,   2.3%,   43:1
45/54 (83%),   24/45 (53%),   3,   No Nuts A**hole,   33,   24,   1.4%,   69:1
33/54 (61%),   18/33 (55%),   10,   Gno Mo Soup,   16,   18,   1.2%,   82:1
48/54 (89%),   26/48 (54%),   2,   white punks on dope,   36,   26,   1.1%,   92:1
27/54 (50%),   12/27 (44%),   13,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   11,   12,   0.8%,   131:1
42/54 (78%),   23/42 (55%),   8,   Last Minute,   21,   23,   0.5%,   200:1
44/54 (81%),   23/44 (52%),   6,   Smack Slap and Spank,   24,   23,   0.3%,   343:1
40/54 (74%),   20/40 (50%),   7,   Ottoman's Empire,   21,   20,   0.2%,   445:1
33/54 (61%),   15/33 (45%),   11,   Last Orders,   13,   15,   0.1%,   1204:1
47/54 (87%),   23/47 (49%),   4,   UN Trio,   28,   23,   0.0%,   0
43/54 (80%),   19/43 (44%),   6,   two dicks and a chick,   22,   19,   0.0%,   0
37/54 (69%),   15/37 (41%),   8,   MOJO,   16,   15,   0.0%,   0
43/54 (80%),   16/43 (37%),   4,   three.DOG.night,   22,   16,   0.0%,   0
38/54 (70%),   7/38 (18%),   3,   Last But Not Least,   17,   7,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

Saturday's Match Results:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

* scuba (Club VooDoo) def. Cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
  scuba (Club VooDoo) def. BushSucks (TakeTHeMoneyAndRun)
  BushSucks (TakeTHeMoneyAndRun) def. wyzzz (two dicks and a chick)
  DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterrone) def. Pernot_Richard (TakeTHeMoneyAndRun)
* rollingfool (two dicks and a chick) def. cis (Last Minute)
  sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. Wallenstein (three.DOG.night)
  Wallenstein (three.DOG.night) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)

# sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
 
« Last Edit: November 04, 2007, 05:16:47 AM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2007, 12:49:18 AM »

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2007, 03:47:11 AM »
Individual Stats

with 76.0% of season completed or 390 matches played .. congrats to resh_lakish (10-8) and stog (8-10) for becoming the first players to complete all their matches


Top 25 All Positions
-------------------


[table=]         
Rank, Position, Player, Team, Won, Lost
1,   2,   scuba,   Club Voodoo,   13,   3
2,   3,   dorbel,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   13,   4
3,   3,   krautlover,   Gammonizers,   13,   4
4,   1,   mradica,   Virtual Addicts,   11,   5
5,   2,   Zorba,   Last Minute,   11,   5
6,   3,   gumpi,   Club Voodoo,   11,   6
7,   3,   Kari_Grandi,   UN Trio,   11,   6
8,   1,   bardancer,   Smack Slap and Spank,   10,   5
9,   1,   rollingfool,   two dicks and a chick,   10,   6
10,   2,   Backwoods,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7
11,   2,   Slipshod,   No Nuts A**hole,   10,   7
12,   3,   diane,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7
13,   3,   resh_lakish,   white punks on dope,   10,   8
14,   2,   kristoffer,   Virtual Addicts,   9,   2
15,   3,   zyxtcba,   No Nuts A**hole,   9,   6,
16,   2,   Mort,   Gno Mo Soup,   9,   7
17,   1,   inim,   white punks on dope,   9,   8
18,   2,   elmicho,   Smack Slap and Spank,   9,   8
19,   1,   otto,   Ottoman's Empire,   8,   5
20,   1,   blotsalot,   Last Orders,   8,   5
21,   1,   Schigolch,   schigstogsedat,   8,   6
22,   1,   Pernot_Ricard,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   8,   8
23,   3,   onion,   MOJO,   8,   8
24,   3,   Wallenstein,   three.DOG.night,   8,   8
25,   3,   stog,   schigstogsedat,   8,   10
[/table]

Position 1 - 9 point matches
---------------------------


[table=]         
Player, Team,      Won,   Lost
mradica,   Virtual Addicts,   11,   5
bardancer,   Smack Slap and Spank,   10,   5
rollingfool,   two dicks and a chick,   10,   6
inim,   white punks on dope,   9,   8
otto,   Ottoman's Empire,   8,   5,
blotsalot,   Last Orders,   8,   5
Schigolch,   schigstogsedat,   8,   6
Pernot_Ricard,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   8,   8
donzaemon,   Cube Sluts,   7,   7
factotum,   Club Voodoo,   7,   10
cis,   Last Minute,   6,   4
michaelsw,   Gammonizers,   5,   6
gaspar,   No Nuts A**hole,   5,   8
Gusssss,   UN Trio,   5,   8
DeaDice,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   4,   4
don,   three.DOG.night,   4,   10
gnomysTwo,   Gno Mo Soup,   3,   2
manxcat,   MOJO,   3,   6
Ramses,   Last But Not Least,   1,   9
[/table]
         

Position 2 - 7 point matches
---------------------------


[table=]         
Player, Team,      Won,   Lost
scuba,   Club Voodoo,   13,   3
Zorba,   Last Minute,   11,   5
Backwoods,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7
Slipshod,   No Nuts A**hole,   10,   7
kristoffer,   Virtual Addicts,   9,   2
Mort,   Gno Mo Soup,   9,   7
elmicho,   Smack Slap and Spank,   9,   8
sarah,   white punks on dope,   7,   6
chopos,   UN Trio,   7,   10
vegasvic,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   5,   3
BushSucks,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   5,   5
samirah,   Gammonizers,   5,   7
jimbok,   Ottoman's Empire,   5,   8
padski,   Last Orders,   4,   3
johnwayne,   MOJO,   4,   8
houtx,   three.DOG.night,   4,   9
sedat,   schigstogsedat,   3,   4
wyzzz,   two dicks and a chick,   3,   11
cassandra,   Last But Not Least,   2,   12
[/table]
         
         
Position 3 - 5 point matches
---------------------------


[table=]         
Player, Team,      Won,   Lost
dorbel,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   13,   4
krautlover,   Gammonizers,   13,   4
gumpi,   Club Voodoo,   11,   6
Kari_Grandi,   UN Trio,   11,   6
diane,   Cube Sluts,   10,   7,
resh_lakish,   white punks on dope,   10,   8
zyxtcba,   No Nuts A**hole,   9,   6
onion,   MOJO,   8,   8,
Wallenstein,   three.DOG.night,   8,   8
stog,   schigstogsedat,   8,   10
taylor,   Ottoman's Empire,   7,   7
souptree,   Gno Mo Soup,   6,   6,
Eve,   two dicks and a chick,   6,   8
boomslang,   Last Minute,   6,   10
sixty_something,   Smack Slap and Spank,   5,   8
jasonj,   Last But Not Least,   4,   10
wordman,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   3,   8
Tomawaky,   Virtual Addicts,   3,   10
erdbeere,   Last Orders,   3,   10
[/table]
« Last Edit: November 04, 2007, 05:10:11 AM by sixty_something »
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Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2007, 03:41:21 PM »
here's the Sunday Morning line .. Club Voodoo has a double match point for team points with Lipstick & Testosterone .. a win there will put them in the barn with 42 team points which is good enough to win in almost 50% of the seasons, according to the simulation

TakeTheMoneyAndRun and Cube Sluts have been idle for the past few days but big matches, possibly today are on the horizon .. according to the simulation, a mimimum of 42 team points will be required to win the season .. totals of 44 and 46 are possible .. regardless, results of all matches will be very important in determining ties in team point totals

with 77% of the season completed at 395 matches played, the latest simulation run for 8,000 iterations or seasons predicts:

[table=]
Undecided TP Matches,   Team Name,   Team Points,   Match Points,   % to win,    Odds to Win
1,   Club Voodoo,   39,   32,   40.5%,   3:2
6,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   28,   26,   20.5%,   4:1
5,   Cube Sluts,   31,   27,   20.4%,   4:1
9,   Gammonizers,   19,   23,   6.0%,   16:1
5,   Virtual Addicts,   29,   23,   5.5%,   17:1
5,   schigstogsedat,   29,   20,   3.1%,   31:1
10,   Gno Mo Soup,   16,   18,   1.1%,   90:1
13,   Lipstick & Testosterone,   11,   12,   0.8%,   122:1
3,   No Nuts A**hole,   33,   24,   0.8%,   126:1
5,   Smack Slap and Spank,   27,   25,   0.6%,   159:1
6,   Last Minute,   24,   24,   0.5%,   185:1
10,   Last Orders,   13,   15,   0.1%,   1333:1
1,   white punks on dope,   37,   26,   0.0%,   0
5,   Ottoman's Empire,   22,   20,   0.0%,   0
4,   UN Trio,   28,   23,   0.0%,   0,
5,   two dicks and a chick,   23,   19,   0.0%,   0
8,   MOJO,   16,   15,   0.0%,   0
4,   three.DOG.night,   22,   16,   0.0%,   0
3,   Last But Not Least,   17,   7,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

Morning Matches included:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

  sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
* sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. Tomwacky (Virtual Addicts)
* cis (Last Minute) def. inim (white punks on dope)
* gumpi (Club Voodoo) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
#*sedat(schigstogsedat) def. jimbok taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
# sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)

Late Result (not included):

* Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. Eve Eve (two dicks and a chick)
« Last Edit: November 04, 2007, 06:13:11 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2007, 10:19:52 AM »
approaching 80% of the season completed at 405 matches played, Club Voodoo is securely "in the barn" with the standard to meet, 42 Team Points and 33 Match Points .. for some time now, i've wondered why their total at only 42 team points is such a dominant one .. i added a new feature to the model that highlights why quite well .. like all complex insights, it's so simple it's obvious - just a little hard to see at first, at least it was for me

here are the new totals and odds .. see for yourself

[table=]
Team Name,   Team Points,   Match Points,   Undecided TP,   Undecided MP,   % to Win,   Odds to Win
Club Voodoo,   42,   33,   0,   2,   51.0%,   1:1
Cube Sluts,   31,   27,   15,   6,   18.2%,   5:1
TakeTheMoneyAndRun,   28,   26,   18,   11,   16.6%,   5:1
Virtual Addicts,   32,   25,   12,   11,   6.6%,   14:1
Gammonizers,   19,   23,   27,   14,   4.2%,   23:1
schigstogsedat,   29,   20,   15,   14,   2.2%,   45:1
Gno Mo Soup,   16,   18,   30,   21,   0.8%,   129:1,
Lipstick & Testosterone,   16,   15,   30,   21,   0.2%,   461:1
Last Minute,   24,   24,   18,   11,   0.2%,   563:1
Last Orders,   14,   15,   30,   20,   0.0%,   3386:1
No Nuts A**hole,   33,   24,   9,   8,   0.0%,   0
white punks on dope,   37,   28,   3,   3,   0.0%,   0
Smack Slap and Spank,   28,   25,   12,   7,   0.0%,   0
UN Trio,   31,   24,   9,   6,   0.0%,   0
Ottoman's Empire,   25,   21,   15,   10,   0.0%,   0
two dicks and a chick,   24,   19,   12,   8,   0.0%,   0
MOJO,   16,   15,   24,   17,   0.0%,   0
three.DOG.night,   22,   16,   12,   11,   0.0%,   0
Last But Not Least,   17,   7,   9,   15,   0.0%,   0
[/table]

Club Voodoo's  63% winning percentage is the highest of all teams .. thus, they have a very high Match Point total - highest at present and highest potential .. this forces all contenders to make 42 points and come in with a higher winning percentage or make more than 42 Team Points .. as neither of these is an easy task,  Club Voodoo has become the even money favorite in a race previously dominated by TakeTheMoneyAndRun .. like i said, the insight is simple, but not easy to see in the swirl of numbers i've displayed before or in the standings at soup's website

these undecided totals may be the missing link to understanding the standings at a glance that i've been seeking all along .. while the horse race metaphor of odds, clubhouse turns, neck-and-neck, etc. is interesting, colorful, and the one i used in developing the simulation model for "seeing" the season unfold .. it is neither simple nor direct

by simply adding Team Points and Match Points with their undecided counterparts, we can easily compute the maximum team and match points possible for each team .. this enables us to tell at a glance who the contenders are and to a degree why .. however, there are subtleties in the way team matches unfold that can't be seen directly with these maximums alone or even with careful analysis .. that's where the simulation approach is uniquely useful .. but, IMHO, just the maximums go a long way toward making the standings more meaningful - even from day one of any season when every one starts with the same potential of 54 and 54 for a 19 team season

so, souptree, how about adding another pair of numbers called "Undecided" that is displayed like "Won" and "Played" .. better still, include the maximums in the Team and Match Point Totals where it belongs .. maybe it could look like this:

[table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max  , Match Points/Max  , % to Win   , Odds to Win
Gno Mo Soup, 16 / 46,18 / 39,0.8%,129:1
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 28 / 46,26 / 37,16.6%,5:1
Gammonizers, 19 / 46,23 / 37,4.2%,23:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 16 / 46,15 / 36,0.2%,461:1
Cube Sluts, 31 / 46,27 / 33,18.2%,5:1
Virtual Addicts, 32 / 44,25 / 36,6.6%,14:1
Last Orders, 14 / 44,15 / 35,0.0%,3386:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,2.2%,45:1
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,51.0%,1:1
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,563:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 28 / 40,25 / 32,0.0%,0
MOJO, 16 / 40,15 / 32,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,21 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 31 / 40,24 / 30,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 24 / 36,19 / 27,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 22 / 34,16 / 27,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 17 / 26,7 / 22,0.0%,0
[/table]

one final observation becomes interesting here, too .. with one more win in their two remaining matches, Club Voodoo forces Cube Sluts to make 44 or more team points in order to win the season .. at 42/34 this exceeds Cube Sluts maximum match point total

personally, i can think of at least 8 teams that might like the way all this looks .. not to mention play their hearts out until the last day of the season in the race for the finish .. i only wish Smack, Slap, and Spank were one of them

c'est la vie, but wait 'til next year .. we'll Smack, Slap, and Spank you all then like we did in the early simulations :thumbsup2:

Sunday Afternoon Matches:
* for team points
# posted, but not confirmed

  krautlover (Gammonizers) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
* Kari_Grandi (UN Trio) def. Eve Eve (two dicks and a chick)
* scuba (Club Voodoo) def. vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone)
   wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. zyxtcba (No Nuts A**hole)
* wordman ((Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
   mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
* mradica (Virtual Addicts) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
   sarah (white punks on dope) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
   sarah (white punks on dope) def. cassandra (Last, But Not Least)
* otto (Ottoman's Empire)  def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
#*sedat(schigstogsedat) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
# sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)
# vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
# wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
 
« Last Edit: November 05, 2007, 02:46:45 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2007, 12:17:40 PM »
Hope springs eternal in the human breast ...
-Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man, 1733 


upsets by manxcat (MOJO) over Pernot_Ricard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) and DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) over donzaemon (Cube Sluts) shake up the leader board .. Club Voodoo's odds lead is extended and the simulation run has them winning in two-thirds of the seasons .. the Gammonizers win two leaping into second place at 6:1 odds as krautlover beats me and michaelsw beats blotsalot while Virtual Addicts loses three falling well back

the Cube Sluts, Last Minute, and Virtual Addicts must now sweep their remaining matches for team points to stay in the race for first place .. the other contending teams must lose no more than one or two of their remaining team point matches .. FIBS Team League season 4 is coming down to the wire

with 81.3% of the season completed and 417 matches played, the % and odds to win calculations are based on a simulation run of 11,000 iterations or seasons

[table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max, Match Points/Max, % to Win, Odds to Win
Gno Mo Soup, 19 / 46,20 / 39,1.6%,61:1
Gammonizers, 22 / 46,25 / 37,14.0%,6:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 19 / 46,17 / 35,0.4%,224:1
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 29 / 44,26 / 36,8.7%,10:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,2.1%,46:1
Cube Sluts, 32 / 44,27 / 32,5.9%,16:1
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,66.9%,1:2
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,549:1
Virtual Addicts, 33 / 42,25 / 33,0.0%,2201:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
MOJO, 19 / 40,16 / 32,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,21 / 31,0.0%,0
Last Orders, 16 / 40,15 / 31,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 34 / 40,25 / 30,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 29 / 38,26 / 31,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 24 / 36,19 / 27,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 25 / 34,17 / 27,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 17 / 26,9 / 21,0.0%,0
[/table]

Monday's Matches:
* manxcat (MOJO) def. Pernot_Ricard (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
* DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. donzaemon (Cube Sluts)
   gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. DeaDice (Lipstick & Testosterone)
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
* houtx (three.DOG.night) def. kristoffer (Virtual Addicts)
   jasonj (Last, But Not Least) def. Tomawaky ((Virtual Addicts)
* chopos (UN Trio) def. padski (Last Orders)
* gnomysTwo (Gno Mo Soup) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
* krautlover (Gammonizers) def. sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank)
   sixty_something (Smack, Slap, and Spank) def. jasonj (Last, But Not Least)
   michaelsw (Gammonizers) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
   cassandra (Last, But Not Least) def. padski (Last Orders)

--- confirmed matches
   wordman (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. taylor (Ottoman's Empire)
* sedat(schigstogsedat) def. jimbok (Ottoman's Empire)
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. Zorba (Last Minute)

--- posted, not confirmed
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)

* for team points
« Last Edit: November 06, 2007, 12:51:35 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2007, 12:17:40 PM »

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2007, 09:15:50 AM »
Everything comes too late for those who only wait.
Elbert Green Hubbard (1856–1915)
American writer, publisher, artist, and philosopher
tempus fugit

only 4 TL matches were played yesterday, but Club Voodoo extended its lead as contenders stumbled and stalled .. the Gammonizers lost a team points match as houtx beat samirah, but they can still lose one more of their remaining seven and stay incontention .. TakeTheMoneyAndRun split a pair of matches yesterday, but neither were for team points .. other contenders were idle

only eight days remain in the season .. whether or not contending teams can get in enough games to catch Club Voodoo is now becoming a headline making issue

with 82.1% of the season completed and 421 matches played, the % and odds to win calculations are based on a simulation run of 6,000 iterations or seasons .. the table format below is the one i think i like best for displaying TL standings at a glance .. while the rank is determined by the simulation model, all the basics are stiill easy to read and interpret


[table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max, Match Points/Max, % to Win, Odds to Win
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,78.1%,1:4
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 29 / 44,27 / 35,7.0%,13:1
Cube Sluts, 32 / 44,27 / 32,6.7%,14:1
Gammonizers, 23 / 44,25 / 36,3.9%,25:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,1.7%,56:1
Gno Mo Soup, 19 / 46,20 / 39,1.7%,57:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 19 / 46,17 / 35,0.6%,170:1
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,499:1
Virtual Addicts, 33 / 42,25 / 33,0.0%,1999:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 34 / 40,25 / 30,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 29 / 38,26 / 31,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,21 / 31,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 28 / 34,18 / 27,0.0%,0
MOJO, 19 / 40,17 / 32,0.0%,0
Last Orders, 17 / 38,15 / 30,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 24 / 36,19 / 27,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 20 / 26,10 / 20,0.0%,0
[/table]

Yesterday's Matches:
*  houtx (three.DOG.night) def. samirah (Gammonizers)
*  Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def. blotsalot (Last Orders)
   johnwayne (MOJO) def. BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun)
   dorbel (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. jasonj (Last, But Not Least)

--- posted, not confirmed
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)

* for team points

« Last Edit: November 07, 2007, 12:00:01 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2007, 05:07:09 PM »
the order remains the same, but the spread tightens as souptree wins two team point matches for Gno Mo Soup .. BushSucks wins two matches, one for team points, for TakeTheMoneyAndRun

with 83.8% of season completed and 430 matches played, the results of the simulation run for 14,000 iterations estimates the % to win and odds below .. other teams are ranked by order of finish using a rating based on the simulation results

[Table=]
Team Name, Team Points/Max, Match Points/Max, % to Win, Odds to Win
Club Voodoo, 42 / 42,33 / 35,74.4%,1:3
TakeTheMoneyAndRun, 32 / 44,29 / 35,9.8%,9:1
Cube Sluts, 32 / 44,27 / 32,5.9%,16:1
Gammonizers, 23 / 44,25 / 36,4.1%,24:1
Gno Mo Soup, 25 / 46,22 / 39,2.7%,36:1
schigstogsedat, 29 / 44,20 / 34,2.2%,45:1
Lipstick & Testosterone, 22 / 46,18 / 35,0.7%,134:1
Last Minute, 24 / 42,24 / 35,0.2%,561:1
Virtual Addicts, 33 / 42,25 / 33,0.1%,877:1
No Nuts A**hole, 33 / 42,24 / 32,0.0%,0
white punks on dope, 37 / 40,28 / 31,0.0%,0
Smack Slap and Spank, 29 / 38,26 / 31,0.0%,0
UN Trio, 34 / 40,25 / 30,0.0%,0
Ottoman's Empire, 25 / 40,22 / 31,0.0%,0
three.DOG.night, 28 / 34,18 / 25,0.0%,0
Last Orders, 21 / 36,17 / 29,0.0%,0
MOJO, 21 / 36,17 / 29,0.0%,0
two dicks and a chick, 26 / 32,19 / 25,0.0%,0
Last But Not Least, 20 / 26,11 / 19,0.0%,0
[/Table]

Yesterday's Results:
* vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. johnwayne (MOJO)
* souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. onion (MOJO)
* souptree (Gno Mo Soup) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
* BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. padski (Last Orders)
   BushSucks (TakeTheMoneyAndRun) def. houtx (three.DOG.night)
* erdbeere (Last Orders) def. Eve (two dicks and a chick)
   erdbeere (Last Orders) def. jasonj (Last, But Not Least)
   Ramses (Last, But Not Least) def. manxcat (MOJO)
   jimbok (Ottoman's Empire) def. houtx (three.DOG.night)

--- earlier match confirmed
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sarah (White Punks on Dope)
« Last Edit: November 08, 2007, 06:53:36 PM by sixty_something »
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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #18 on: November 09, 2007, 10:57:34 AM »
Accuracy of observation is the equivalent of accuracy of thinking.
Wallace Stevens (1879–1955) American poet

New Metrics

two new columns have been added to the table, Order and Pos .. Order is a weighted average order of finish (AOF) estimated from simulation results ..  Pos is simply the difference between the team AOF and the AOF of the leader .. thus, Pos is a measure in units of position in the race relative to the the leader .. using the horse race metaphor, Pos might be "seen" as lengths behind the leader .. thus, Pos becomes a measure of spacing between teams .. previously, odds and percent to win showed this, but odds and percents can become confusing and sometimes almost irrelevant

Pos is a better metric for "seeing" the race both at the lead and deep in the pack .. i mean, as bad as our season has been Smack, Slap, and Spank are now in an exciting race with white punks on dope for bragging rights and tenth place .. we have to sweep our remaining TP matches to have a chance at catching them .. i hadn't "seen" that as clearly before seeing the Pos values .. hopefully, even for teams with no chance of winning, Pos provides an insight into where a team stands relative to others regardless of the number of matches either team has remaining .. the goal is to keep the race interesting and give all teams a visual incentive to play all games

traditional team standings in many sports use games behind (GB) to "see" the relative spacing between teams .. GB is easily calculated from games won and games lost .. while similar to GB in traditional standings, Pos is not at all the same .. remember, Pos is based on AOF in all simulated seasons, in the results below that's 12,000 plus seasons or iterations .. in TL, a win and loss may have two values .. for example, every win wins a match point, but a win doesn't necessarily win team points, the primary unit in TL standings

a win/loss metric to be meaningful in TL must include both team points and match points .. for now, i'm calling it MB, not GB, where MB means matches behind.. ideally, MB, tells the teams exactly how many TP and MP are needed for each team to catch or pass the leader in first place .. to a degree, the TP/Max and MP/Max numbers already provide this, but calculating it isn't as straightforward as it seems .. so, MB is not quite ready for prime time or display here .. if interested, try it out .. if you see an obvious and good way to express MB or have a better idea, please let me know

in calculating AOF, from which Pos is derived, i use a table or matrix where the order of finish for each iteration or season in the simulation is tallied .. the table shows the number of times each team finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and so on .. from this matrix a weighted average is calculated where a 1st place finish in each iteration is worth 19 points (19 teams in the league); a 2nd place finish 18 points; and a last place finish 1 point .. this weighted average is AOF .. for example, Club Voodoo's AOF is 1.5 for this simulation run .. the AOF for Last, But Not Least was 19 for a Pos of 17.5 .. so, what's the point?

before i began these simulations given the unpredictable way in which each team plays and completes matches over time, it was difficult to "see" how a team is doing relative to other teams .. for example, last season the relative standings did not become clear, for me, until the last few days of the season .. confirm that for yourself by a glance back at the standings at the TL home page and a comparison with the standings below .. this series of posts from the simulation results has regularly given me new ways to express the standings .. here now is yet another

Back to the Race

Club Voodoo knocks out Virtual Addicts' winning chances as scuba defeats Last Orders' padski .. now, Virtual Addicts' maximum match point total is 33 .. Club Voodoo's 34 match points is now beyond Virtual Addicts' reach

with 84.4% of the season completed and 433   matches played, the results below are based on a simulation of 12,000 iterations or seasons


[table=]
Order,   Team Name,    TP / Max    ,     MP / Max    ,     Pos    ,   % to Win  ,   Odds to Win
1.5
,   Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
34 / 35
,
---
,
75.1%
,
1:3
4.0
,   TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
2.5
,
9.7%
,
9:1
4.9
,   Cube Sluts,
32 / 44
,
27 / 32
,
3.4
,
6.4%
,
15:1
6.3
,   Gammonizers,
23 / 44
,
25 / 36
,
4.8
,
3.3%
,
30:1
6.4
,   No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
4.9
,
-
,
-
6.7
,   schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 34
,
5.2
,
2.2%
,
45:1
6.9
,   Virtual Addicts,
33 / 42
,
25 / 33
,
5.4
,
-
,
-
7.7
,   Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 39
,
6.2
,
2.4%
,
41:1
8.8
,   Last Minute,
24 / 42
,
24 / 35
,
7.3
,
0.2%
,
631:1
9.0
,   white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
7.5
,
-
,
-
10.1
,   Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
8.6
,
-
,
-
10.2
,   UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
8.7
,
-
,
-
10.9
,   Lipstick & Testosterone,
22 / 46
,
18 / 35
,
9.4
,
0.8%
,
128:1
11.6
,   Ottoman's Empire,
25 / 40
,
22 / 31
,
10.1
,
-
,
-
15.6
,   three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
14.1
,
-
,
-
15.7
,   Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 28
,
14.2
,
-
,
-
16.9
,   MOJO,
21 / 36
,
17 / 28
,
15.4
,
-
,
-
17.3
,   two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
15.8
,
-
,
-
19.0
,   Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
17.5
,
-
,
-
[/table]

Yesterday's Results:

    scuba (Club Voodoo) def. padski (Last Orders)
*  padski (Last Orders) def. sarah (white punks on dope)

--- posted, not confirmed
    sedat def. johnwayne (MOJO)
« Last Edit: November 09, 2007, 02:52:14 PM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
e-mail me

Offline sixty_something

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Re: Team League Predictions
« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2007, 03:38:31 PM »
My greatest fear: repetition.
Max Frisch (1911–1991)
Swiss architect, playwright and novelist

One Down Four to Four-peat


diane, queen of the three time defending champion Cube Sluts, finished her season with a clutch win over boomslang on Last Minute .. a loss would have eliminated the Cube Sluts from their chances of winning giving Last Minute the team points and a slim theoretical chance themselves .. still facing elimination with any loss, the Cube Sluts have four remaining matches all for team points - one more against Last Minute, three others against Last Orders, schigstogsedat, and Virtual Addicts .. donzaemon faces team point matches against cis, blotsalot, and Schigolch; while Backwoods faces kristoffer .. a sweep would propel Club Sluts past Club Voodoo for a possible unprecedented and insufferable fourth Team League Championship season

Last Minute is now eliminated from contention for first place even though the model gives them a very slim chance at a win .. in over 12,000 iterations or seasons, Last Minute finished first only once by winning all ten (10) remaining matches finishing in a tie with Club Voodoo .. but since Club Voodoo beat Last Minute in their heads up match during the season, they would lose the tie breaking decision

the remaining teams must now win at least 43 team points to pass Club Voodoo or win at least 34 match points should they finish with 42 team points .. in the barn with 42 team points and 34 match points, Club Voodoo still dominates the race winning in more than 70% of the simulated seasons

MB/mr

in the last post i introduced the MB metric, matches behind .. below is a first attempt at expressing it as MB/mr for matches behind the leader and matches remaining .. these are manual estimates for now, but it looks like a good way to express it .. considering the MB concept for every team, it became apparent matches remaining is also a component that may need to be displayed .. MB is an important metric primarily for teams still in the race, but may be useful for other teams as well .. by definition, MB must be equal or less than mr for any team still contending

for some teams MB is equal to mr, yet the team has been eliminated from contention for winning .. for other eliminated teams, MB is less than mr .. the latter case is obvious .. if a team is 2 team point matches behind, but has no team point matches remaining, it cannot catch or pass the leading team .. i found it worth displaying here for completeness, but other uses for this metric may exist for races back in the pack .. the former case deserves a comment .. for example, Virtual Addicts, with MB/mr of 3/3 .. Virtual Addicts is eliminated from contention for first place because even if they win all remaining matches and achieve 42 team points their maximum match point total, 33, would be less than the 34 match points already attained by the leaders, Club Voodoo .. in order to make these cases more visually apparent, when a team is still in contention, the MB/mr value is displayed in boldface .. when out of contention, the Mb/mr value is italicized

one other change in metrics is also introduced below .. the Pos metric has been renamed to Back and shifted to the left in the table adjacent to the Order column from which it is derived .. remember, Order is the average order of finish calculated as a weighted average of each teams order of finish from all simulation runs .. Back is, IMO, a simpler word for expressing the concept of distance behind the leader .. this remains consistent with the horse race metaphor previously discussed .. it is after all how far "back" in the race the standings in this "order" are intended to more accurately reflect .. ideally, this may be useful from day one in future seasons

looking at the MB/mr metric below, it should become more obvious why Club Voodoo has become the dominant favorite to win this season .. of the six remaining teams in contention to win, 4 must win all remaining team point matches .. the other two can lose no more than one team point match to remain in contention

with 84.8% of the season completed and 435 matches played, the table below is based on a simulation of over 12,000 iterations or seasons .. on another day with only two matches played neither for team points, 78 matches remain unplayed

[table=]
Order,  Back,   Team Name,    TP/Max    ,     MP/Max    ,     MB/mr    ,   % to Win  ,   Odds
1.6
,
---
Club Voodoo,
42 / 42
,
34 / 35
,
---
,
71.9%
,
2:5
4.0
,
2.4
,  TakeTheMoneyAndRun,
32 / 44
,
29 / 35
,
4/4
,
8.9%
,
10:1
4.3
,
2.7
,  Cube Sluts,
32 / 44
,
28 / 32
,
4/4
,
10.1%
,
9:1
6.3
,
4.7
,  Gammonizers,
23 / 44
,
25 / 36
,
7/7
,
4.0%
,
24:1
6.4
,
4.8
,  No Nuts A**hole,
33 / 42
,
24 / 32
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.3
,  Virtual Addicts,
33 / 42
,
25 / 33
,
3/3
,
-
,
-
6.9
,
5.3
,  schigstogsedat,
29 / 44
,
21 / 33
,
5/5
,
1.9%
,
51:1
7.7
,
6.1
,  Gno Mo Soup,
25 / 46
,
22 / 39
,
6/7
,
2.4%
,
41:1
8.9
,
7.3
,  white punks on dope,
38 / 38
,
28 / 30
,
2/0
,
-
,
-
9.4
,
7.8
,  Last Minute,
24 / 42
,
24 / 34
,
6/6
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.5
,  Smack Slap and Spank,
29 / 38
,
26 / 31
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
10.1
,
8.5
,  UN Trio,
34 / 40
,
25 / 30
,
3/2
,
-
,
-
10.7
,
9.1
,  Lipstick & Testosterone,
22 / 46
,
19 / 35
,
7/8
,
0.7%
,
133:1
11.6
,
10.0
,  Ottoman's Empire,
25 / 40
,
22 / 31
,
6/5
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.0
,  three.DOG.night,
28 / 34
,
18 / 25
,
5/3
,
-
,
-
15.6
,
14.0
,  Last Orders,
24 / 36
,
18 / 28
,
6/4
,
-
,
-
16.9
,
15.3
,  MOJO,
21 / 36
,
17 / 28
,
7/5
,
-
,
-
17.3
,
15.7
,  two dicks and a chick,
26 / 32
,
19 / 25
,
6/2
,
-
,
-
19.0
,
17.4
,  Last But Not Least,
20 / 26
,
11 / 19
,
8/2
,
-
,
-
[/table]



Yesterday's Results:

   diane (Cube Sluts) def. boomslang (Last Minute)
   vegasvic (Lipstick & Testosterone) def. sedat (schigstogsedat)

--- Earlier match confirmed
   sedat (schigstogsedat) def. johnwayne (MOJO)
« Last Edit: November 10, 2007, 06:39:22 PM by sixty_something »
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves tons of explanation. -- Unknown
e-mail me

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